To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ I’m extremely confident that Intel ($INTC) has just entered one of its most defining market moments in the past 15 years. What’s unfolding here isn’t just a short-term trade setup, it’s a structural transition where politics, policy, and price action collide.

📰 Political Catalyst: Trump’s Equity Stake Proposal

Trump is poised to unveil a deal where the U.S. government could receive up to a 10% equity stake in Intel. This isn’t a trivial headline, it’s a potential paradigm shift for how the U.S. approaches semiconductor sovereignty. For decades Washington has spoken about chip independence, but a direct equity stake in Intel would institutionalize national security and industrial policy inside the company’s balance sheet. I’m watching this closely because a move of this magnitude reshapes not only Intel’s capital structure but also its perception in global supply chain geopolitics.

💰 Whale Activity and Pre-Market Flows

I’m convinced the smart money is already positioning. This morning, whales accumulated more than $37.1M worth of $INTC shares in pre-market. That’s not retail chasing momentum, that’s calculated accumulation. Heavy blocks like this tell me institutions are anticipating Friday’s announcement to drive a valuation reset.

📊 Technical Landscape: Wedge Breakout Confirmed

On the 4H chart, Intel broke out of a wedge pattern embedded within a broadening tops structure. That’s a constructive setup when paired with whale flow and political news. On the weekly chart, I’m confident we’ve just seen a bullish spike that clears multiple moving average clusters. Zooming out to the monthly Gann cycle view: this low traces back to 2010, right into the half-cycle of a 30-year Gann sequence. Gann called this “Sideways Movement, Accumulation on the Side” and the volume profile validates it. I’m convinced the sheer size of volume at this bottom is telling the story; this is accumulation, not distribution.

📈 My Position and Swing Update

I’m in this trade. My average cost is $23.64 and I’m now up +5.74% on my short-term swing with price at $25.00. I’m tactically positioned because the confluence of catalysts is too strong to ignore. This isn’t about chasing a headline spike, it’s about aligning political catalysts with structural accumulation zones.

🌐 Sector Rotation and Macro Tailwinds

Semis have caught a bid across the board. After Powell’s dovish tone hinted at easing policy, chipmakers rebounded hard: SOXL and Intel +3%, STM and Microchip +2%, Qualcomm, Micron, and Broadcom up over 1%. I’m confident that Intel, given its lagging performance versus peers, has asymmetric upside. With passive flows into $SOXX and $QQQ accelerating, Intel could benefit disproportionately as ETF rebalancing forces accumulation.

⚡ $SPX Back at Key Strike ⚡

$SPX returned to the $6,475 strike where heavy GEX still lingers for the 0DTE expiry. Positive Delta’s continue to support price action, watch closely as this could shift into the close.

📏 Price Targets and Execution Framework

From a technical lens, I’m targeting the following levels:

• Short-term: $26 (resistance confluence and recent rejection zone)

• Intermediate: $40.68 (monthly chart projection, neckline test)

• Long-term: $55+ (Elliott structure and Gann confluence)

These are not speculative numbers; they’re derived from harmonic symmetry, volume shelf alignment, and historical retracement cycles. I’m unequivocally optimistic that patience here could yield outsized returns.

📊 Valuation Context: Intel vs Peers

Intel’s valuation remains deeply discounted relative to its peers. The chart below compares Intel with AMD and NVIDIA across three critical metrics:

• Price-to-Sales (P/S): Intel at just 1.9× versus AMD at ~15× and NVIDIA at ~30×.

• Price-to-Book (P/B): Intel near 1.1×, a fraction of AMD (~7.6×) and NVIDIA (~10.8×).

• Forward P/E: Intel sits at ~42.6×, while AMD and NVIDIA trade around ~32–34×.

🔎 Conviction Framework

I’m here for the asymmetric upside that this catalyst uniquely creates, and I’m confident Intel has carved out a multi-year structural bottom supported by both price action and historic volume confirmation. I’m watching political headlines not as distractions but as hard catalysts capable of redefining Intel’s valuation path. I’m positioned with deliberate patience and conviction, avoiding the noise of short-term speculation while aligning with institutional flows and passive ETF mechanics that continue to accumulate beneath the surface. Above all, I’m convinced this isn’t simply a trade; it represents a profound transition in Intel’s narrative, where policy, capital markets, and technology leadership converge into a singular inflection.

💡 Closing Thought

This moment for Intel is not a fleeting rally; it’s the collision of industrial policy, capital structure, and cyclical positioning. I’m convinced the implications extend well beyond a price chart, touching the future of U.S. semiconductor sovereignty and Intel’s role in it. This isn’t just a trade; it’s the crystallisation of a new narrative where fundamentals, policy alignment, and structural accumulation converge into a roadmap rather than a reaction.

What do you think: does a direct U.S. equity stake in Intel accelerate its path back to industry leadership, or will execution still dominate the narrative?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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