To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ I’m fully convinced Alphabet’s decision to unify all AI efforts under DeepMind is one of the most strategically important moves in Big Tech today. This isn’t just organisational reshuffling; it’s a statement that Google intends to own the frontier of AI across health, infrastructure, and creativity.

Take healthcare. DeepMind just published a landmark Nature Medicine paper introducing a Personal Health Large Language Model fine-tuned on Gemini. The results are staggering: the model outperformed doctors and trainers in personalised sleep and fitness guidance, achieving expert-level accuracy while scaling insights from wearable data. For me, this underscores one of AI’s most enduring use cases: personal health monitoring with a comprehensive, longitudinal understanding of every vital and every metric.

DeepMind isn’t just pushing applications; it’s thinking at the hardware level. In its widely shared piece How to Think About GPUs, the team breaks down how NVIDIA’s H100 and B200 chips scale matrix multiplications, how memory architectures create bottlenecks, and why understanding these systems is essential for training LLMs. This kind of deep engineering literacy is why Google can marry capex intensity with technical optimisation.

And then there’s leadership. Demis Hassabis, who steered AlphaGo and AlphaFold, is now at the centre of this consolidation. His vision has repeatedly turned research breakthroughs into platforms that shift entire industries.

Layer this with Gemini 2.5 Flash, the latest state-of-the-art image generation upgrade, and the case becomes undeniable. From photorealistic rendering with character consistency, to design transfer across styles, to creative compositions that merge multiple inputs, Gemini now defines the new benchmark in generative media. That’s not a research demo; it’s monetisable capability sitting across Google’s ecosystem.

I’m confident this reshuffle signals not just Google’s seriousness about AI, but its readiness to commercialise at scale while competitors still chase funding.

Technical Setup: Resistance and Gamma Flows

$GOOG is trading around $208, coiled against heavy resistance at $210. The Net GEX profile shows strong positive gamma above that level, suggesting dealers are positioned to suppress volatility until we see a decisive breakout. Put support sits way down at $165, with HVL at $197.5, reinforcing that the real battle is right here in this $207–210 zone.

On the daily chart, price is hugging an ascending support trendline that has carried this rally from the mid-$180s. The 4H Keltner and Bollinger overlays show consistent channel respect since July, but momentum cooled into this week’s test of $210. I’m watching closely: if we break and hold above, the next legs open toward $220, with potential gamma acceleration. I’m here for that inflection.

Balance Sheet Strength and Return Metrics

$GOOG’s fundamentals underpin this technical posture with real weight. Cash and short-term investments stand at $95.15B, with long-term debt just $23.61B. S&P rates the balance sheet AA+, with FFO interest coverage of 332x. That’s fortress-level liquidity.

Return on equity hit 34.8% LTM, while return on capital stands at 30.4%. Over the past decade, revenues have compounded at 18.16% CAGR, free cash flow at 19.73%, and EPS at 20.17%. Margins remain elite: 58.2% gross, 33.2% operating, 31.1% net. I’m unequivocally optimistic about these efficiency metrics sustaining forward execution.

Valuation and Forward EPS Trajectory

On valuation, the stock trades at 21.03x NTM P/E versus its 10-year mean of 23.08x. NTM FCF yield is 2.93% vs a decade mean of 4.17%, so the earnings-based multiple looks supportive, while cash flow is less generous.

Here’s where conviction sharpens: analysts see EPS growth well above the 10.52% CAGR “Graham rule” hurdle rate, projecting $9.93 in 2025 (+23.5%), $10.65 in 2026 (+7.2%), $12.00 in 2027 (+12.6%), and $13.97 in 2028 (+16.4%). At a 23x P/E, that maps to ~$321, a 14.1% CAGR from here. Even at a conservative 21x, you’re still looking at ~$293, or an 11% CAGR.

I’m confident this risk/reward profile remains attractive, especially when paired with Alphabet’s proven capital allocation and buyback program (12.5% reduction in shares outstanding since 2018).

AI Reshuffle, CapEx Surge, and Monetisation

Alphabet just unified AI leadership under DeepMind, tightening innovation cycles across Gemini, Google Cloud, and product integrations. The Gemini 2.5 Flash model, built for image consistency, already surpasses rival benchmarks and threatens Adobe’s dominance. I’m focused on how this leap closes monetisation gaps in Google Workspace, search, and developer tools.

Wall Street expects Big Tech’s AI CapEx to exceed $400B next year, but analysts already call those figures “conservative.” Google’s share of that burden is estimated to rise $9B in 2026. The real question is returns. Sam Altman recently said AI may be in a bubble. Yet, unlike cash-burning startups, Alphabet doesn’t need external financing; it has data, distribution, and monetisation already in place. I’m confident this separates Google from the pack.

Regulatory and Legal Headwinds

The looming DOJ ruling on Alphabet’s $26B in default search contracts could strip nearly a quarter of operating income. But paradoxically, some analysts suggest losing exclusivity payments to Apple may help Alphabet by eliminating costly contracts that no longer drive demand. I’m watching this carefully; sometimes structural “losses” end up as longer-term gains.

Energy, Scale, and Strategic Positioning

Google’s clean energy pivot with Kairos Power signals foresight: securing advanced nuclear capacity for AI data centers. 500MW already committed through 2035, with Hermes 2 targeted for 2030. This deal ensures Google won’t be bottlenecked by energy constraints while scaling AI workloads. I’m tactically positioned in my thinking here; AI dominance will require not just compute, but firm, carbon-free energy supply.

Strategic Context: Acquisitions and Moat

Three of the greatest acquisitions in corporate history, Android, YouTube, DoubleClick, were Google’s. Each continues to compound value into today’s growth runway. The moat isn’t just technological; it’s organisational memory of integrating and scaling transformative bets. I’m confident that the Gemini and Cloud expansions will echo these legacies.

Closing Conviction

This isn’t just about $GOOG’s near-term trade around $210. It’s about a company with fortress-level financials, unmatched data, and the willingness to scale into AI’s uncertain economics while competitors burn cash. I’m confident Alphabet remains one of the few genuine long-term winners in AI, with regulatory risks and CapEx surges reframing, not derailing, the growth trajectory.

This is where fundamentals and positioning collide, and I’m deeply focused on the inflection.

Are you watching this resistance at $210 as closely as I am, or do you think the bigger story lies in the $400B CapEx arms race?

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