๐๐ฐ๏ธ๐ฅ Rocket Lab Ignites: Breakout Momentum, Short Squeeze Fuel & Neutron Tailwinds ๐ฅ๐ฐ๏ธ๐
$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
๐ฏ Executive Summary
Iโm convinced Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is setting up for a structural rerating. The stock has reclaimed its moving averages, mini-flagged off the 9EMA, and produced multiple lower wicks confirming strong dip-buying. Yesterdayโs red-to-green move was the confirmation signal that momentum traders needed. Iโm currently up 7.06% unrealised gains as $RKLB pushes higher from the breakout retest. The asymmetric catalyst remains the Neutron rocket, with Launch Complex-3 now completed in Virginia, providing the infrastructure for reusable medium-lift dominance. Add in rising short interest (12.54M, ~18.57% short ratio), call option activity stacked across $48โ$51 strikes, and firm analyst upgrades; this is more than a rally. Itโs the makings of a space-economy small-cap rerating.
๐ฐ Financial Performance Breakdown
โข Q2 2025 revenue: $144.5M (beat guidance of $130โ$140M, vs Street $135.4M).
โข Operating loss narrowed: $33.6M, smaller than expected.
โข Backlog: ~$1.0B+, with 41% launch, 59% space systems mix.
โข Cash: $754M post-offering; annotated financials show cash grew to $683M, up 563% over 2 years, reflecting balance sheet strength.
โข Q3 guide: $140โ$150M (vs $104.8M in Q3 2024, +34โ43% YoY).
โข Gross margins flipped from negative to positive, improving with spacecraft/vertical integration scaling.
โข Revenue nearly doubled YoY in 2024, reinforcing execution consistency.
๐ ๏ธ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk
โข Neutron delays remain headline risk, but Roth Capital confirms LC-3 infrastructure is complete and operational for its first late-2025 launch. The site was built in under two years with Virginia Space Agency and NASA support, with Governor Youngkin calling it a โcommercial space inflection pointโ for the state.
โข Space is capital intensive, and competitors like Blue Origin, Firefly, and Relativity are circling; execution is everything.
โข Short-term candlestick analysis: 1 long and 2 short signals flagged (Up through three MAs = bullish; Black covers White = bearish caution).
๐ง Analyst & Institutional Sentiment
โข Roth Capital: PT raised to $60 (from $50), impressed by Neutron pad build-out.
โข Cantor Fitzgerald: Buy, PT $54, citing SDA Tranche-3 contracts.
โข Citi: PT raised to $50 (from $33), forecasting $2.6B revenues by 2029 on Neutron cadence.
โข Previous upgrades: KeyBanc $40, Goldman $27 Hold, Cantor $35, Roth $35; consensus now trending strongly upward.
โข Institutional flows warming; ARK-style ETF inclusion plus Trumpโs August executive order streamlining licensing add a macro tailwind. Trumpโs vocal support for the Space Force and speculative proximity to Elon Musk strengthen the political hedge.
โข Insider sentiment: Form-4s show directors Nina Armagno, Merline Saintil, and Jon Olson buying stakes, aligning management with shareholders.
๐๐ Technical Setup
โข Daily: Breakout above 9EMA, bull-flagging with lower wicks confirming support. Support: $44.73 / $45.59 / $46.51. Resistance: $48.29โ$50.07.
โข RSI: 61.9 (neutral-bullish). MACD: Positive 1.27 but still neutral โSellโ rating per TipRanks; EMAs (5, 20, 50, 200) all bullish.
โข Keltner + Bollinger overlays: compression resolving upward, price hugging upper band.
โข Weekly: Holding above 50DMA and forming textbook continuation pattern, mirroring the annotated 1400% super-run map from the past.
โข Technical trend: ChartMill 8โ10/10 rating. MarketScreener flags resistance $51.39, big support $36.14.
โข RKLB is moving earlier in the cycle than ASTS, showing leadership among space peers.
๐งจ Short Data & Squeeze Potential
โข Short interest: 12.54M shares.
โข Short ratio: 18.57%, trending higher.
โข Daily short vol (08/29): 2.95M vs total vol 15.9M (~19% of turnover).
โข Short % peaked near 26% through June; sustained high levels create a coiled-spring setup if momentum breaks above $50.
๐ Options Flow & Derivatives
โข Near-dated Sep 5W (IV 70.99%):
โข $47.5C: 1.4K volume, delta 0.618.
โข $48C: 17.01K volume, mark $2.15, delta 0.574, gamma 0.087.
โข $48.5C: 1.87K volume, delta 0.530.
โข $49C: 1.99K volume, mark $1.59, delta 0.486.
โข $49.5C: 354 volume, delta 0.440.
โข $50C: 4.72K volume, delta 0.397.
โข $51C: 1.20K volume, mark $0.85, delta 0.316.
โข $52C: 1.07K volume, delta 0.246.
โข $53C: 421 volume, delta 0.189.
โข Sep 26W (IV 77.25%):
โข $46C: 27 volume, delta 0.650.
โข $47C: 98 volume, delta 0.610.
โข $48C: 561 volume, delta 0.570.
โข $49C: 48 volume, delta 0.530.
โข $50C: 174 contracts, +7.94%, mark $3.40, delta 0.489.
โข $51C: 6.16K contracts, +24.58%, mark $2.99, delta 0.451.
โข $52C: 82 volume, delta 0.415.
โข $53C: 3 volume, delta 0.379.
โข $54C: negligible, delta 0.348.
โข Net takeaway: call volume is stacked in the $48โ$51 cluster, creating gamma fuel directly under resistance.
๐ Macro & Peer Context
โข Macro stability: CBO and IMF project U.S. GDP growth averaging 1.7โ2.3% through 2030 with inflation stabilising around 2.7%. Under the Fedโs Taylor Rule, this points to a less restrictive rate path, lowering discount rates and supporting capital-intensive growth names like $RKLB.
โข Integrated model: Tariffs, debt servicing, and solar-based energy swaps interact with inflation stabilisers to shape future capex efficiency, creating a more favourable backdrop for Rocket Labโs scaling plans.
โข Space economy TAM: Projected at $1.4T by 2030, with satellite broadband ($100B+) and earth observation ($20B+) as key growth drivers.
โข Defense demand: Heightened geopolitical tensions are boosting government spending. Rocket Labโs contracts with NASA, the U.S. Space Force, NRO, and DARPA provide long-duration stickiness.
โข Peer comparison: $ASTS is lagging technically while RKLB is already breaking out. Within the Russell 2000, Rigettiโs +1700% run versus RKLBโs +88% highlights RKLBโs relative strength and untapped upside.
โข Political moat: Trumpโs support for U.S. space defense and executive orders streamlining commercial licensing give Rocket Lab faster launch cadence and policy protection.
๐ Valuation & Capital Health
โข Forward PT consensus: $50โ$60.
โข Cash: $754M balance; $683M annotated chart highlight (+563% in two years).
โข Debt levels modest relative to backlog.
โข Non-GAAP OpEx $86.9M vs GAAP $106M.
โข Backlog >$1B implies forward EV/revenue multiple compressing quickly as Neutron scales.
โ๏ธ Verdict & Trade Plan
Iโm already long $RKLB and holding with conviction.
โข Entry: My position is already on from lower levels; for traders looking to join, I see $48โ$49 as a clean breakout entry zone.
โข Stop-loss: $46 (below flag base and EMA cluster).
โข Targets: Base $54โ$55; Stretch $60โ$70 in line with Roth upgrade and annotated swing targets.
โข Catalysts: Neutron pad commissioning, SDA Tranche-3 contracts, short squeeze fuel, continued Electron cadence, Trumpโs licensing order, Wallops LC-3 operationalisation.๐ Conclusion
Iโm convinced $RKLB isnโt just rallying; itโs re-rating. Vertical integration, Electronโs 50+ launches with ~95% reliability, Neutron ignition, defense backlog, and rising institutional flows create a perfect storm. Execution beats hype. Thatโs why Iโm here!
๐ Key Takeaways
โข Q2 revenue $144.5M, beat consensus; backlog ~$1B.
โข Cash $754M; annotated cash chart shows +563% growth to $683M.
โข Short interest 12.54M; short ratio 18.57%.
โข Options: $48C volume 17K; $51C Sep 26W volume 6.16K (+24.6%).
โข Technicals: Bull flag breakout, support $46, resistance $50โ$52.
โข Electron: 50+ launches, ~95% reliability, 2nd most flown U.S. rocket after Falcon 9.
โข Analyst PTs: Roth $60, Cantor $54, Citi $50; all bullish revisions.
๐ข Donโt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ๐๐ Iโm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letโs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! ๐
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ๐๐๐๐๐
@Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerPM @TigerObserver @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @1PC
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- Hen Soloยท2025-09-02TOP๐ฐ๏ธWhat resonates here is the Russell 2000 angle. Rigettiโs 1700% run next to RKLBโs 88% highlights just how much untapped upside remains. Iโve seen the same disconnect with $AMD versus $NVDA when one lags technically but has the fundamentals to catch up.2Report
- Cool Cat Winstonยท2025-09-02TOPI like how you tied the Fedโs Taylor Rule into the RKLB setup because it shows why capital heavy names benefit when rates ease. Reminds me of how $PLTR rerated once investors saw its backlog was resilient in a tightening cycle.6Report
- Tui Judeยท2025-09-02TOP๐๐๐ Another great masterclass article BC! ๐The backlog growth combined with Electronโs 95% reliability really stood out to me. Itโs the same type of execution strength thatโs pushed $NOC higher over the last year, where defense contracts compound and create stickiness!4Report
- Queengirlypopsยท2025-09-02TOPI๐ฃ๐ฃ๏ธ ๐ฅโm seriously fired up about this RKLB breakdown because every layer of it screams conviction and Iโm already sitting up 9.79% thanks to you BC. The way you connected the 9EMA breakout with stacked call walls at $48โ$51 and the rising short ratio at 18.57% makes it feel like a coiled spring ready to explode. What really hits me is how you pulled the macro together, showing inflation stabilising at 2.7% and GDP at 1.7โ2.3% as a real tailwind for capital heavy names like RKLB, since lower discount rates push valuations higher. Then thereโs the $1.4T space TAM with $100B in broadband and $20B in earth imaging, plus sticky defense contracts with NASA, Space Force, NRO, and DARPA that keep this pipeline locked. ASTS is lagging, Rigetti ran 1700% while RKLBโs only up 88%, so the upside is right there. Add Trumpโs executive orders clearing launch licensing and Neutronโs infrastructure fully built at Wallops, and this feels like the exact setup algorithms canโt ignore ๐ฅ๐ง2Report
- Kiwi Tigressยท2025-09-02TOP๐๐๐๐๐ Iโm locked into this RKLB run because everything about the setup feels unstoppable and Iโm already up 5.37% on it so shout out to you BC for mapping this out with precision. The clean breakout above the 9EMA with lower wicks holding, plus that monster $48C volume at 17K and the Sep 26W $51C at 6K, makes it feel like momentum traders are just fueling the rocket. The short ratio sitting at 18.57% adds even more juice since a push over $50 could flip this into a squeeze fast. What I love most is how you tied the $1.4T TAM story with real numbers like $100B in broadband and $20B in earth observation, while pointing out the contracts with NASA and Space Force that give RKLB long-term durability. ASTS is still lagging while Rigetti ripped 1700%, so the catch-up trade here is obvious. With Neutronโs pad at Wallops now built and Trumpโs licensing reforms speeding cadence, this feels like one of those trades you donโt want to miss fr! ๐2Report