To The Moon

The Inflation-Job pendulum is swinging towards the latter again. This week will see different variants of US jobs reports being released. Before that, it's a good idea to look at the US economic reports released so far. They reflect the current state of US economy, that will have a ripple effect on the US stock market. New Home Sales. On Mon, 25 Aug 2025, US Commerce Dept showed that new home sales for July 2025 has fallen by -0.6% MoM vs the June 2025 sales figures upgrade. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 652,000 units vs market estimate of 635,000 vs June 2025’s upwards revised of 656,000 units. The government’s report showed the median sales price of a new home decreased nearly -6.0% in July from a year earlier to US$403,800, the lowest for July since 2021. In fact, prices have fallen on an annual basis every month in 2025 except one. The elevated mortgage rates and affordability issues remain a significant drag, with inventory holding steady at a high 9.2-month supply. This report underscores a housing market still under pressure, signaling (a) overall economic uncertainty and (b) constrained household buying power. Any certainty that impending interest cut by the Fed, will be the solution to jump start housing demand again ? Perhaps for the cash-rich only ? US Durable Goods. On Tue, 26 Aug 2025, US Census Bureau released its monthly Durable Goods report for July 2025. For the 2nd month in a row, durable goods orders continue its fall by -2.8% MoM on top of a -9.4% monthly drop in June. Drilling down further, once again, weak non-defense aircraft orders were the key factor. Non-defense aircraft orders plunged -33% MoM in July on top of a -53% m/m decline in June. Now we know why in some Trump tariffs negotiations, countries (eg. South Korea, Indonesia, Qartar, Saudi Arabia, UAE & Malaysia) have ‘promised’ to buy Boeing airplanes during negotiation for lower tariff rate. In contrast, orders excluding transportation rose a solid 1.1% MoM, and it the largest monthly gain since September 2024. Core capital goods orders rebounded, and shipments posted a solid gain. Overall US is still importing more goods into the country, resulting in the negative reading. Consumer Confidence. On Tue, 26 Aug 2025, US Consumer confidence report for August 2025 was released. The US Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly by -1.3 points to 97.4, erasing some gains from July 2025 (98.7) and continuing a modest downward trend. It was mainly due to (a) growing concerns over the labour market and (b) income prospects - basic working class people’s concerns. Despite the decline, overall level remains up sharply from April 2025 low of 86.0. These sentiments imply cautious consumer spending ahead, reflecting economic uncertainty influenced by a weak jobs report and ongoing tariff impacts. US Jobless Claims. When its time to write about US jobless claims, I am surprised that this week there were hardly any coverage on them. Usually, Reuters will have a few news pieces but this week it was down to one only. Strange. (1) Weekly Jobless Claims. For week ending 23 Aug 2025, weekly jobless claims decreased by -5,000 to 229,000 vs market expectations of 231,000 vs last week’s downwards revised 234,000. Initial claims have declined marginally in latest week after a surge in the prior week. This signaled a modest decline in new unemployment filings and a still relatively steady labour market. (2) US Continuing Claims. For week ending 16 Aug 2025, Continuing claims also fell by -7,000 to 1.954 million vs consensus estimates of 1.97 million vs prior week’s downwards revised 1.961 million. Unfortunately, the 4-week moving average rose to 1.956 million at the same time. It is the highest level in 6 weeks, up from 1.952 million in the prior week, revised from 1.955 million. In Summary. Together, these trends indicate that while the labour market faces some softening, layoffs have not surged dramatically, and overall employment conditions remain cautiously stable. However, the slight increase in the 4-week moving average signals lingering concerns about slower hiring momentum ahead. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On Thu, 28 Aug 2025, the 2nd preliminary reading for US Gross domestic product (GDP) was released. It showed a stronger-than-expected economic growth of 3.3% annualized vs economists’ expectations of 3.1%. This is up from the initial estimate of 3.0%, first reported on 30 Jul 2025. The upgrade to Commerce Department’s GDP reported, reflected upward revisions to consumer spending as well as business investment in equipment. That resulted in a measure of underlying domestic demand also being revised higher. However before one rejoices: Economists polled believed US GDP report is not a true reflection of the economy's health. They expected the drag on GDP from import duties to become more evident in the quarters ahead. This stemmed from the wild swings in Trump’s sweeping tariffs that have been implemented, including escalations and 90-day pauses. Unanimously, they believed that US economic growth will slow to stall-speed once the tariff effects on imports wash out in Q3 2025. Personal Consumption Expenditure. On Fri, 28 Aug 2025, the inflation report that everyone has waited (all week long) was finally released. Headline inflation. Monthly: came in at +0.2% MoM, in lined with market forecast and lower than June’s +0.3%. Annual: came in at 2.6% YoY, in lined with market forecast and remained status quo from June. Core inflation. Montly: increased to +0.3%, in lined with market forecast and remained status quo from June. Annual: nudged up to +2.9%, in lined with market forecast vs June’s 2.8%. It was the largest rise since February 2025 and followed a 2.8% gain in June 2025. In summary, overall inflation data indicates persistent but moderate inflation, suggesting that US economy is coping with ongoing price pressures, but for how long ? Consumer Sentiments (final) On Friday, the final reading of US Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2025 declined to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July. (see above) It was also below market expectations of 62, marking the first drop in 4 months. Overall, Americans are primarily worried about one aspect of the economy: inflation. Latest report showed year-ahead inflation expectations among Americans climbed to 4.8% in August, up from July's reading of 4.5%. Against this deteriorating backdrop, only about ¼ (or 25%) of consumers expect to maintain their spending levels on items with large price increases, according to a report from UMich released on 15 Aug 2025. My viewpoints: (mine only) Taking the above reports into considerations, I think US economy showed resilience with a “stronger” Q2 GDP readings of 3.3%. Despite weakening in investment & exports, robust consumer spending helped to prop up US economy. Unfortunately, US inflation remains stubborn with core PCE steady near 2.9%. Overall US consumers are very concerned about inflation creeping back into their lives. It is very likely that the ‘fear’ will change US consumers’ spending pattern in the coming months, supported by labour market indicators. These combinations likely to keep US market sentiment cautious yet optimistic as we enter September 2025, with investors closely watching Federal Reserve moves and inflation trends. Coming Week’s Reports. With Q2 quarterly reporting tailing off soon, will US economic reports out this week, play havoc on US market once again. Tue, 02 Sep - S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI report. Tue, 02 Sep - ISM manufacturing. Wed, 03 Sep - Jobs opening and Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs). Wed, 03 Sep - Fed’s beige book. Thu, 04 Sep - ADP non-farm payroll. Thu, 04 Sep - US jobless claims. Thu, 04 Sep - S&P final U.S. services PMI. Fri, 05 Sep - US non-farm payroll. With the firing of Dr Erika McEntarfer and installation of Trump’s puppet E.J. Antoni due to be confirmed by US Senate, are US jobs’ reports still “clean” & “trustable” going forward ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. NVDA Drags US Market Lower in September? Mon, 01 September. Pick post. US PCE - Rally US Mkt & Cuts Interest Rate? Fri, 29 August. Pick post. AEXA, Chamath Palihapitiya Risky $250m SPAC ! Fri, 29 August. Idea post. Do you think US market will consolidate or rally in 1st week of September 2025’? Do you think US job market will continue to “recover” after massive corrections ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents