My take: The path to $3T is three engines + discipline:
Search holds share despite AI overviews by improving ad formats and query monetization.
YouTube boosts RPM with Shorts ads + Shopping; CTV keeps lifting brand spend.
Cloud sustains margin expansion as AI workloads ramp on first-party silicon.
Capital returns stay aggressive; operating leverage does the rest.
What I’m watching: TAC/traffic mix, Cloud margin cadence, capex ROI (TPUs, data centers), and any antitrust overhang.
Trade plan: Buy dips tied to AI “cost fears” and add when Cloud prints back-to-back margin beats.
Risk: legal outcomes, AI inference costs, and hardware capex lag.
Alphabet wins by taxing the internet twice—on intent (Search) and attention (YouTube)—while Cloud quietly fattens margins
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