To The Moon

The report that US market and punters have been waiting for the week ending 06 Sep 2025 was released on Friday. It was not an ideal set of number, to say the least. What do I mean ? Read on… US Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment. (1) Non-Farm Payroll. On Fri, 05 Sep 2025, the highly anticipated US jobs report was finally out. (see below) For August 2025, US non-farm payroll came in at 22,000 jobs created vs 75,000 expected vs July 2025 upwards revised 79,000 jobs. Making US job growth is almost flat in the past 4 months and has almost entirely ground to a standstill. Equally worrying was June 2025 payroll gains. They have been revised down by a total 21,000 and now revealed the economy shed -13,000 jobs in that month instead. It’s the first job losses since the depths of the pandemic in December 2020, fanning fears of economic stagnation YTD, US has added 598,000 jobs so far this year vs 1.144 million in 2024; that’s a -47.73% decline - pretty dismal if you asked me ! If we look at the 3 month average of jobs added from January 2023 onwards, the only conclusion that could be derived is it has been on the decline, bottoming in July 2024 (under Biden administration). It then began to climb thereafter, peaking in January 2025 when Trump became the next incoming president. Since then, it has plunged even lower than the trough of July 2024. (2) Unemployment. At the same time, unemployment edged up to 4.3%, clearly indicating a decent slowdown happening in the US. It is at a level not seen since September 2017 outside of the Covid-19 pandemic. (see below) These numbers added to growing concerns that Trump’s policies may have pushed the economy toward a problematic mix of (a) low growth and (b) stubborn inflation. More than ¼ (or 25%) of all unemployed workers have now gone without a job for more than 6 months, the highest level since June 2016. My viewpoints: (mine only) Despite a weaker jobs report, there was no ‘further’ complain from Trump as the BLS' commissioner in charge of the report- E.J. Antoni , (viewed as unqualified by many economists across the political spectrum), was appointed by Trump himself. A weak jobs market (under Trump’s leadership) is a weak jobs market - no two ways about. The “only” good that has come out of a weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll report is the odds of a Fed rate cut, as the FOMC team prepares to convene on Sep 16-17. Actually, this was something that Fed chair Jerome Powell has briefly touched on during the Jackson Hole summit on 22 Aug 2025. US market seemed to be “cheering” on the prospect of an interest cut. However, this should not be the time, place and reason to cheer and ‘celebrate’. This is because a slowing labour market signals underlying weakness that could: Ripple through US economy. Pressure sectors across the board. Drag down US’s GDP. Already, manufacturers and importers are passing higher costs onto consumers. This would keep prices elevated. (see below) Based on a survey conducted in early May 2025 by the Liberty Street Economics — a publication series featuring insight and analysis from New York Fed economists: About 75% of businesses in manufacturing and services raised prices to cover some or all of the higher costs caused by tariffs. Almost 30% of manufacturers and 45% of service companies passed on the full cost increase to customers. Another 45% of manufacturers and ⅓ of service firms passed on only part of the cost. Around 25% of companies in both sectors absorbed the full cost increase and did not raise prices. This matches other research showing that for a 5% cost increase, about 25% of firms fully pass the cost to customers, while another 25% do not raise prices at all. The mix of falling growth and sticky inflation risks creating a vicious cycle of stagflation, making the path ahead more challenging despite the prospect of easier monetary policy. With the jobs report out and an imminent collision course for the US economy, could this be the reason why Trump signed yet another order on Fri, 05 Sep 2025 — granting certain tariffs exemptions for trade deal partners ? (see above) The latest move that will come into effect on Mon, 08 Sep 2025 will see that: Countries that have established trade agreements with US on industrial goods & raw materials benefitting from tariffs exemptions. Exemptions are for a list of 45 items that includes nickel, gold, graphite and compounds used in pharmaceuticals and diagnostic tests, some agricultural products and aircraft parts. In short, exemptions apply to imports that are not produced in the US or are made in limited quantities. For now, immediate beneficiaries include Japan & EU that have framework trade pacts with Washington. Pre-conditions to tariffs exemption will depend on the "scope and economic value" of a partner's commitments to the US under reciprocal agreements. Will the latest executive order signed into effect, throw US economy into further turmoil given that US federal court has decreed that Trump’s tariffs imposed is unlawful ? (see below) On 30 Aug 2025, a federal appeals court has ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports to the United States are unlawful, throwing into doubt the signature economic policy of Trump’s 2nd term. The next steps are (i) a Supreme Court appeal, (ii) a temporary pause on changes, and (iii) significant uncertainty for US trade policy. Already, the administration has filed its Supreme Court appeal on 03 Sep 2025, with expedited review requested due to the potential economic impact. However, the Supreme Court could take months to rule. The imposed tariffs technically remain enforced until Tue, 14 Oct 2025, unless the court extends or lifts the stay. For now, all parties are awaiting the Supreme Court’s decision, and trade policy adjustments will depend on its final ruling. Will US Supreme Court do the ‘right’ thing and enable “free trade” to prevail ? Will a reverse in Trump’s tariffs lift US market to even greater highs ? My Ringfence Action ! As an individual investor, I will try to : Stay diversified and maintain defensive positions in sectors less exposed to trade friction, avoiding concentrated bets on tariff-sensitive industries. Keep cash or liquid assets ready for volatility. Most important of all - monitor closely US Supreme Court and policy updates during ongoing uncertainty. I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for the best outcome but fearing the worst. I think there will be more disruptions to come in dribs and drabs throughout remaining H2 2025. Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Jobs Reports Impacts - NOT Interest Cut only ! Mon, 08 September. Pick post. End of de minimis, sell AMZN SHOP EBAY PYPL...? Thu, 04 September. Pick post. US on brink of Recession? Read Jobs Reports ! Wed, 03 September. Pick post. Do you think US Supreme Court will do the right thing to restore global “free trade” order? Do you think we should remain optimistic or pessimistic that US market will continue to scale new highs ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents