To The Moon

📈 HSI Surpasses 26,000! NetEase ATH, 11 Stocks Doubled – Still Have Chance?

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has finally done what few thought possible just a year ago: break 26,000, its highest level in four years. The rally isn’t just index-level strength — it’s a broad-based surge, with 11 HSI constituents doubling in value so far in 2025.

At the front of the pack, Tencent (0700.HK) closed at HK$633, its highest in three years, while NetEase (NTES.US) just printed a fresh U.S.-listed record high at $145. Consumer names and financials are joining the party too — Pop Mart (+222.8%), Sino Biopharm (+181.9%), and Chow Tai Fook (+146.4%) highlight how wide the rally has spread.

The question buzzing across trading floors (and Tiger’s community): is this momentum just getting started, or are we dancing dangerously close to a top?

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🚀 What’s Driving This Rally?

Three major forces are powering Hong Kong’s breakout:

Policy tailwinds: Beijing has steadily rolled out pro-growth measures — from easing property market stress to stimulating consumption. Unlike past years, investors see consistency this time, boosting confidence.

Earnings beats: Big tech is finally delivering. Tencent, NetEase, and Xiaomi are surprising on both revenue and profit, showing that Chinese innovation is not dead.

Global flows: With U.S. equities looking stretched and Europe sluggish, Hong Kong’s relatively low valuations are attracting international funds.

Together, these have flipped sentiment from “China trap” to “China opportunity.”

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🎮 Tech & Gaming: Tencent and NetEase Lead the Charge

Tech and gaming have been the rally’s heartbeat.

Tencent has reignited growth through advertising recovery, steady gaming revenue, and new AI monetisation across WeChat. Its return to HK$600+ feels symbolic — a reminder of how dominant its ecosystem remains.

NetEase is hitting all-time highs, with blockbuster games and a growing international footprint. Its ability to keep scaling despite tighter regulations shows the durability of its IP pipeline.

The parallel is clear: just as U.S. investors once flocked to FAANG stocks, China’s market is rediscovering its “tech backbone.”

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🛍️ Consumer & Lifestyle: Pop Mart, Chow Tai Fook, Xiaomi

The rally isn’t confined to tech. Consumer spending is roaring back:

Pop Mart has become 2025’s cult stock, up more than +222% thanks to Labubu mania, new product lines, and expansion into jewellery.

Chow Tai Fook has doubled as gold demand and domestic luxury appetite rise.

Xiaomi (+62.9%) is proving it’s not just a smartphone maker but a legitimate EV challenger, delivering 30K+ cars for two consecutive months.

This shows investors are betting not just on policy but on real consumption recovery across categories.

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📊 Financials & Defensive Leaders

Financials have added stability to the rally. HSBC (+41.7%) and China Life (+58.8%) aren’t doubling, but they’re providing ballast. For foreign investors hesitant about smaller caps, these global-facing blue chips offer both yield and growth.

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⚠️ What Could Go Wrong?

It’s tempting to get carried away, but history says caution matters.

Valuations: Many winners are trading well above historical averages. Pop Mart’s forward P/E looks stretched, and even Tencent’s rebound has re-rated it higher than recent norms.

Policy whiplash: While Beijing’s stance is supportive today, investors still remember 2021’s regulatory clampdown. One misstep could derail sentiment quickly.

Global risks: U.S. rate moves, dollar strength, or geopolitical flare-ups could hit flows into Hong Kong just as fast as they’ve come in.

Remember: markets climb walls of worry, but corrections often strike when confidence feels highest.

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💡 Investor Angles

For retail investors, the key question isn’t whether the HSI is strong (it clearly is). It’s where the next pocket of opportunity lies:

Follow the leaders? Ride Tencent, NetEase, and Xiaomi while momentum holds.

Look for laggards? BABA is still below old highs — does that mean bigger upside if it catches up?

Rotate to safety? HSBC and insurers offer steadier dividends if you fear a pullback.

Speculate on niche winners? Pop Mart and Sino Biopharm show what happens when narratives catch fire.

Your answer likely depends on time horizon: short-term traders love momentum, while long-term investors might ask if 2025’s doubles have already eaten tomorrow’s gains.

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🔎 Discussion Points

1. Are you bullish on China’s stock markets pushing to refresh record highs?

2. Beyond Tencent and Alibaba, which consumer or tech names would you bet on for the next leg higher?

3. With HSI momentum this strong, is there still upside left, or is it time to be cautious?

4. If you had to pick only one — tech, consumer, or financials — which sector wins 2025?

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