Rare Earth Stocks Pull Back! Morgan Stanley Report: How Will US–China Relations Affect?
The rare earth market is back in turbulence.
At the start of trading, U.S.-listed rare earth stocks fell across the board: MP Materials -6.2%, USA Rare Earth -8.6%, United States Antimony -2%, and NioCorp -4.8%.
On Monday, JPMorgan announced a $1.5 trillion strategic investment plan, with up to $10 billion earmarked for critical minerals and frontier technologies.
What rare earth stocks to focus?
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s latest report highlights that the interlinked dynamics of rare earths, AI, and tariffs are reshaping the competitive landscape between China and the U.S.
Morgan Stanley four scenarios: the future path of rare earths
Morgan Stanley describes the current U.S.–China relationship as entering a “strategic upgrade phase”, outlining four possible trajectories:
Scenario 1 (Base Case): Short-Term Thaw → Limited Agreement
No extreme tariff hikes; rare earth export licensing gradually normalizes; limited impact on the magnet industry.
Tariffs likely to stay around 20–45% through year-end.
After short-term volatility, room for recovery emerges — favoring high-quality + thematic hedging strategies.
Scenario 2: Tactical Escalation → Quick Pullback
Short-term tariff or licensing tightening, followed by a fast retreat due to high economic costs.
Temporary supply chain disruptions could turn into buy-the-dip opportunities.
Scenario 3: Prolonged Escalation → Deep Decoupling
Restrictions expand to semiconductors, EVs, and other key sectors.
Industry chain stress intensifies; defensive and localized assets outperform.
A-shares show stronger resilience than offshore Chinese stocks; valuation centers move lower.
Scenario 4: Rhetoric Escalation → Rapid Agreement
Both sides tighten first, then ease quickly — extreme measures are rolled back, tariffs drop to the lower end of the range, and negotiations broaden to new areas.
Risk appetite rebounds rapidly in the short term, but structural uncertainty lingers long-term.
💬 Discussion
Is this rare earth correction just a short-term adjustment or the start of a trend reversal?
During the “strategic upgrade” stage of U.S.–China relations, are rare earths a safe haven or a risk asset?
Over the next decade, could “AI × Rare Earths” become the real investment megatrend?
What’s your pick for rare earth stocks?
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Morgan Stanley’s “strategic upgrade” view fits the current U.S.–China landscape. I’m also eyeing $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ & $VITAL METALS LTD(VML.AU)$ , which benefit from Western supply chain diversification.
Looking ahead, “AI × Rare Earths” could become a major investment theme. These materials power everything from AI servers to EV motors. Despite volatility, I treat rare earths as a long-term thematic play, that underpins the next phase of technological & energy transformation.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars
During the “strategic upgrade” in U.S.–China ties, rare earths are a hybrid asset — geopolitically defensive yet cyclical. They act partly as a hedge but still swing with global growth and policy shocks.
Over the next decade, “AI × Rare Earths” could become a megatrend, as AI hardware, EV motors and data-centre magnets drive structural demand.
My pick: MP Materials (MP) — the only major U.S. rare-earth miner with vertical integration and government backing. High risk, but long-term strategic value remains compelling.
@TigerEvents @TigerClub @Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerEvents
在“战略升级”阶段，稀土其实是介于避风港与风险资产之间的特殊存在。它不像黄金那样纯粹防御，但在地缘紧张时期，却具备供应安全的重要性。当中国加强出口管控、美国推动自主开采时，稀土供应链就成为投资焦点。短线波动虽大，但长期逻辑仍稳。
我个人认为，“AI × 稀土”是未来十年的潜在趋势。AI、芯片、电动车、无人机等领域，都离不开磁性材料与高性能电机的支撑，而这些都需要稀土元素。科技越进步，对稀土的需求反而越刚性。
若要布局，我会优先关注MP Materials等具备上游资源与加工能力的企业，而非纯题材炒作型公司。分批建仓、耐心持有，也许正是穿越波动的最佳策略。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
In the current US–China strategic phase, rare earths serve as strategic assets that offer some resilience but remain risky due to China’s supply dominance and execution challenges
The combination of AI and rare earth demand is positioned to become a major investment theme over the next decade, driven by growing AI hardware needs and ongoing supply chain development
Top stock picks include MP Materials Corp (MP) as a leading integrated player, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (LYC) for its strong non-China presence, and USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) as an early-stage US supply chain play。。。
Overall, rare earths represent a compelling yet complex opportunity shaped by geopolitical dynamics and emerging technology demand
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@Huat99
@Snowwhite
The artificial hype looks like a money grab and in my eye is a bubble waiting to pop. By extension, the requirements of data centre and GPU both for AI operations and model training pushes up rare earth demand for the components (and energy consumption, another terrible consequence of the AI boom).
As always there is investment opportunities for every circumstances but it would be wise to make some money, then exit in time instead of being greedy.
I strongly believe that China's constant wielding of rare earth as a beating stick, will motivate countries to pay more attention to rare earth sourcing and production. As it is, the demand will always be there, so... investment time!