To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 

$TSLA is attacking the $439.10 Fibonacci retracement level, with the blue top at $442.70 acting as the key breakout pivot. Weekly Bollinger Bands remain in expansion mode, a signature of trending conditions where standard deviations stretch beyond 2.0σ, signaling low-probability mean reversion and high directional persistence. A session-high close here would set the highest weekly close in Tesla’s history, triggering systematic inflows from momentum strategies. Empirically, Tesla’s microstructure shows a seven-session archetype of post-declination gap-ups, with Fridays carrying a +1.2% mean reversion bias driven by end-of-week positioning. As the broader market turned green into the close, bullish narratives are aligning at speed.

📰 Policy Tailwind Ignites

Vice President Kamala Harris admitted in her memoir 107 Days (released 16Oct25) that excluding Elon Musk from Biden’s 2021 EV summit was a “big mistake.” This rhetorical pivot, amplified at the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit on 14Oct, marks a notable softening of the political stance toward Tesla. Historically, similar policy reframings have correlated with +3.2% mean intraday pops in policy-sensitive stocks. Combine that with Tesla’s record Q3 energy storage deployments of 9.4 GWh (+67% YoY), and it points toward deeper integration into future U.S. EV frameworks. As Q4 earnings approach on 22Oct (consensus EPS $0.48, revenue $25.2B), policy momentum could help rerate the stock structurally, even as BNP Paribas Exane’s $350 Underperform was easily absorbed into today’s +2.1% rally to $435.15.

🇨🇳 China Model Y L Demand Frenzy

Tesla’s extended-wheelbase Model Y L is now sold out in China until December, with fresh orders queueing past November at RMB 339,000 (~$47,180). September CPCA data showed 90,812 units (+2.8% YoY, +9.2% MoM), reversing two months of contraction. Insurance registrations, a leading proxy for demand, rose 15% MoM through 10Oct, signaling accelerating uptake. Shanghai Gigafactory is now operating at roughly 95% utilization, with export ramps to Europe set to offset US tax credit expiries. In a market where EV penetration hit 52% in September, Tesla’s 12.3% share and targeted strategic variants give it asymmetric Q4 volume upside.

💰 Options Flow: Timestamped Institutional Conviction

Flows were electric. At 12:35pm ET, a $1.71M sweep hit the Dec 2027 $910C. Minutes earlier, $900C and $940C strikes saw $1.68M and $1.79M blocks. Repeated $520C Dec 2025 sweeps over $1.5M stacked gamma northward. The standout was a $9.19M naked sale of 3,000 $430P expiring 28Nov25 at $30.59, implying a breakeven of $399.41. That’s not hedging; that’s a conviction floor from size. Gamma convexity is concentrated at $440–$445 (1.2M contracts), setting the stage for dealer hedging flows to accelerate if $442.70 breaks cleanly. The call/put ratio sits at 2.1:1 with implied vol at 48% vs 20-day HV of 42%.

📊 Microstructure & Technicals

Intraday, Tesla ripped off $421.41 support, slicing through multiple high-volume nodes and reclaiming the $434.64–$436.10 value area high. AVWAP from the September breakout base anchors near $430, providing bulls with a defined launchpad. 4H Keltner and Bollinger structures continue to expand, supported by a bullish EMA stack. On 30m, price reclaimed short-term EMAs with authority, flipping microstructure to buyer control. Stochastic RSI remains elevated but not exhausted, reflecting impulse strength without blow-off.

💼 My Trade: Precision Scalping With Conviction

Picked up some $TSLL yesterday for a quick swing and trimmed into the rip today. Nothing huge, just clean weekend pocket money locked in while the bigger $TSLA setup plays out.

I scaled into $TSLL (Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X) on the intraday flush at 19.94, targeting the reclaim of the $428 volume node. Trimmed into the rip for +186.88 USD. Clean, fast, surgical. This is how I trade structured levels while holding core exposure for Tesla’s bigger structural arcs: autonomy, energy, and robotics.

📈 Momentum Roadmap

I’m watching $442.70 as the immediate breakout trigger. A clean breach, with volume >2× ADV and a close > open +1σ, could drive algorithmic thrust into the $453–$458 gamma vault, echoing July 2024’s +12% follow-through. A stall could trigger a flush toward $430 VWAP for repositioning, not reversal. With Cybercab, Optimus demos, and autonomy policy narratives converging into Q4, the upside skew remains firmly intact.

⚡️ Macro Sentiment Flip

BNP Paribas Exane’s bearish note triggered a 1.5% premarket dip, which was immediately absorbed. Tesla closed up +2.1%, reaffirming how little sell ratings matter when demand, flow, and policy converge. As my old hedge fund boss said, “Someone always knows something.” Today, the flow spoke loud and clear.

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