To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Intel is gearing up for its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings release on October 23, 2025, with the stock currently at $37.01 as shown in the finance card above, boasting an impressive 85.89% YTD surge. Q2's $12.86 billion revenue beat the upper end of guidance, even as net profit missed, and management's optimistic call comments propelled shares back to the $37-$38 multi-week resistance. Now, with the S&P 500 at 6,700 and Nasdaq at 22,200, the spotlight is on Q3: will management deliver another bullish outlook to justify the rally, or could a soft guidance trigger a pullback? Dive into the preview, assess the catalysts, and uncover the trades that could make or break this semiconductor showdown.

Q3 Preview: Revenue Beat, Profit Pressure

The setup is tense:

• Revenue Forecast: Analysts eye $12.8-$13.5 billion, up 1-5% YoY, driven by AI PC chips and foundry progress, exceeding Q2’s $12.86 billion.

• Profit Challenge: EPS expected at $0.05-$0.10, up from Q2’s -$0.10 loss, but impairments and R&D costs could pressure margins to 35-38%.

• Market Sentiment: Posts found on X show “AI turnaround hope” but skepticism on profitability amid AMD and NVIDIA competition.

• Economic Context: Fed’s 25 bps cut to 4.13% and CPI at 2.9% support tech, yet unemployment at 4.3% hints at consumer caution.

• Technical Edge: The finance card above shows INTC at $37.01, near its year-high $39.65, with RSI at 68 suggesting momentum but nearing overbought territory.

• Q2 Legacy: Management’s vision for 18A process and U.S. $8.9 billion stake boosted confidence—Q3 must build on it.

The guidance is the linchpin.

Rally Justified: $40 or Reversal?

The trajectory teeters:

• Bull Case: $40 (8.1% upside) by month-end if Q3 beats revenue and guidance lifts to $14 billion, with $45 (21.6%) by year-end on AI traction.

• Bear Case: A 10-15% drop to $33-$31.41 if profit misses deepen, with $36 support from the finance card above.

• Momentum Check: Q2’s post-earnings recovery to resistance mirrors current $37.01, but a miss could trigger a -12.3% max decline, per historical data.

• Sentiment Check: X leans toward “AI turnaround hopes” but flags “dilution risks” from the $8.9 billion U.S. stake.

• Risk Factor: Competitive losses to AMD and NVIDIA or supply chain hiccups could cap gains.

• Long-Term View: $50 (35.1% upside) by 2026 if foundry and AI strategies gel.

The rally’s at a crossroads.

Trading Opportunities: Navigate the Earnings Test

Strategic moves to consider:

• INTC: Buy at $37.01, target $40, stop at $36. An 8.1% gain on guidance beat.

• NVIDIA Proxy: Buy at $188.89, target $200, stop at $180. A 5.9% rise on AI.

• AMD Rival: Buy at $180, target $190, stop at $175. A 5.6% upside on sector.

• Walmart Hedge: Buy at $78, target $82, stop at $75. A 5.1% lift on stability.

• Options Edge: Buy $40 INTC calls (December expiry) for 100-120% gains on a 5% move.

• Cash Reserve: Hold 15% cash to buy dips at $36 or below.

Position for the pop.

Trading Strategies: Swing the Q3 Outcome

Short-Term Swings

• INTC Pop: Buy at $37.01, sell at $38.50, stop at $36.50. A 4% scalp on volume.

• NVIDIA Lift: Buy at $188.89, target $192, stop at $185. A 1.6% rise on news.

• AMD Bump: Buy at $180, target $183, stop at $178. A 1.7% gain on trend.

• Bearish Guard: Buy S&P 500 puts at 6,700, target 6,500, stop at 6,750. A 3% win if miss hits.

• Profit Lock: Sell Nasdaq at 22,200, target 21,800, stop at 22,300. A 1.8% buffer.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold INTC: Buy at $37.01, target $45 by year-end, for 21.6% upside. Stop at $33.

• Hold NVIDIA: Buy at $188.89, target $220, for 16.5% upside on AI. Stop at $175.

• Value Anchor: Buy Walmart at $78, target $85, for 9% upside. Stop at $75.

• Defensive Hold: Buy Procter & Gamble at $180, target $195, for 8.3% upside. Stop at $170.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14.60, target $16, stop at $13.60, to hedge volatility.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $205, target $210, stop at $200, as a buffer.

• T-Bond Futures: Buy at 108, target 110, stop at 106, on rate shifts.

My Investment Plan: Betting on Guidance

I’m riding the momentum with caution. I’ll buy INTC at $37.01, targeting $40, with a $36 stop, on a guidance beat. I’ll add NVIDIA at $188.89, aiming for $200, with a $180 stop, on AI strength. I’ll include AMD at $180, targeting $190, with a $175 stop, and Walmart at $78, targeting $82, with a $75 stop. I’ll hedge with VIXY at $14.60, targeting $15.5, and hold 15% cash for a dip to $36. I’ll monitor the earnings call and X sentiment closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Intel at $37.01, up 10% from $33.55 in September per the finance card above, nears its year-high $39.65. The S&P 500 at 6,700 and Nasdaq at 22,200 reflect strength, but a 10-15% drop to $33-$31.41 looms if Q3 misses. An 8% rise to $40 is possible by October-end, with $45 (21.6%) by year-end if guidance shines. The rally’s at a crossroads—play smart!

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger