To The Moon

$SoFi Technologies(SOFI)$ is one of the most explosive and divisive stocks on the market, and it’s heading into an earnings report where the bar is set incredibly high.

Last quarter, SoFi delivered a monster 42.8% year-over-year revenue jump, smashing expectations. That report sent the stock soaring.

Now, the pressure is on. Analysts expect growth to slow. The consensus call is for revenue to hit $904.4 million (a 29.7% YoY increase) and for adjusted EPS to land at $0.08.

After such a massive run, the easy money has been made. SoFi is now a "show me" story. The core question is: Can the company’s famous "flywheel" model deliver a big enough surprise to justify its premium valuation, or is it priced for a perfection it can't deliver?

WHY: The Bull vs. Bear Showdown

Going into this print, there are two powerful narratives at war. Where you stand on these two cases determines if you're a buyer or a seller.

• The Bull Case: The Flywheel Ignites

  Bulls believe the 29.7% growth estimate is far too conservative. The 11.75 million active customers SoFi reported last quarter are the fuel. The bull thesis is that these members are now being successfully cross-sold higher-margin products.

  What to watch: The Lending Segment is the profit engine. While personal loans are the bread and butter, any surprise upside in student loan originations could be a huge catalyst. More importantly, bulls are looking for massive growth in the Financial Services segment. This segment (SoFi Money, Invest, etc.) is the key to the flywheel and is expected to post 57% growth.

• The Bear Case: The Growth Deceleration is Real

  Bears see last quarter's 42.8% growth as the peak. They argue that a slowdown to 29.7% isn't just a tough comparison—it's the start of a worrying new trend.

  What to watch: The bears are laser-focused on credit quality. In this high-rate environment, any unexpected rise in delinquencies or a big increase in loan-loss provisions would be disastrous. Furthermore, the Tech Platform segment (Galileo) is a concern. Analysts are only forecasting 12.6% growth, which is a significant slowdown. If this high-margin segment falters, it will break the entire bull thesis.

HOW: Trading the Print — Three Scenarios

For a stock priced as richly as SoFi, "meeting" expectations is not good enough. The stock's reaction will depend entirely on the surprise and, more importantly, the guidance.

Here are the three scenarios I’m watching.

• Scenario 1: The "Beat and Raise" (Bullish)

• What it looks like: Revenue comes in well above $920 million, EPS beats $0.08, AND (most critical) management raises guidance for Q4 and the full year.

• My Take: This is the only scenario that truly works for bulls. It proves the growth story is accelerating, not slowing, and would trigger a major rally.

• Scenario 2: The "In-Line" (Bearish Sell-the-News)

• What it looks like: Revenue lands right around $905 million, EPS hits $0.08 exactly, and guidance is simply "reaffirmed."

• My Take: This, in my opinion, is a sell. A stock with this much growth priced in must beat. An "in-line" print will be seen as a failure and will be an invitation for traders to take profits.

• Scenario 3: The "Guidance Cut" (Disaster)

• What it looks like: Any miss on revenue OR EPS. Or, the killer: management lowers guidance, blaming macro headwinds or slowing loan demand.

• My Take: This would confirm the bears' entire argument. It would prove the growth story is broken and the stock's valuation is unsustainable.

My Take: Will It Set a New All-Time High?

Let's get this question out of the way: No.

SoFi's all-time high is $30.30. Even a spectacular beat won't cause the 150%+ rally needed to reclaim that level in one night. The real battle isn't the ATH; it's about building a new base.

Personally, I am cautious heading into this report. The bar is simply too high, and last quarter's blowout makes for a very tough comparison. The "in-line" scenario seems the most probable, which would likely lead to a "sell the news" pullback.

I see SoFi as a long-term winner, but a short-term gamble. The risk/reward of holding it through this specific earnings event is skewed to the downside.

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $SQ

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