The Fed's 25bps cut was priced in for weeks, so the market's initial pop felt more like relief than surprise. Powell's "December is not a done deal" line kept the door open for a pause, which means the bond market will stay on edge until the next jobs report. I'm watching the 10-year yield—if it holds below 4.3 %, risk assets still have room to run; anything north of 4.5 % and the party could stall.
Nvidia single-handedly dragged the S&P 500 to a fresh high, but breadth is narrowing fast. When one name carries the index, I treat it as a yellow flag rather than a green light. My portfolio is overweight tech, yet I trimmed some Nvidia yesterday to raise cash—call it profit-taking with an eye on rotation into small-caps if the Russell 2000 can finally break 230.
Gold rebounding to $4,000 tells me two things: real yields are still negative after inflation, and geopolitical premium is creeping back in ahead of the China-US summit. I added a 2 % allocation to GLD last week; it's cheap insurance if Trump's "great trip" tweets turn into tariff threats overnight.
The bigger question is whether stocks and gold can rally in tandem. Historically, they diverge—risk-on crushes the yellow metal. Right now, both are riding the same liquidity wave from the Fed's pivot and QT taper. I'll stay long equities but keep a tight stop on the Nasdaq; if gold cracks $4,200 while the S&P tags 6,200, I'll flip more cash into miners.
Bottom line: I'm constructive on risk assets into year-end, but I'm not chasing. Cash at 4 % still beats overpaying for momentum, and a December pause would give the laggards time to catch up. Let the summit headlines land first—then we decide if this bull has legs or just another head fake.
As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.
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- buythedip·10-30TOPInteresting insights! Keep up the great work! [Great]1Report