To The Moon

Here is a considered view of how DBS Group (DBS), Oversea‑Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) stand ahead of their upcoming earnings, whether they can follow the strong start of US banks, and whether they might be good buys ahead of earnings.

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✅ What is positive

DBS stands out among the three for several reasons:

It has shown stronger revenue momentum: for 1H 2025 DBS had ~5 % total income growth year-on-year compared to UOB ~2 % and OCBC negative ~-1 %. 

Its return on equity (ROE) remains highest among the peers (~17 % in 1H 2025) and cost-income ratio is among the best in class. 

Analysts are relatively more bullish on DBS: for example, its buy ratings are more numerous and its dividend outlook is viewed favourably. 

It also has a strong capital return plan (dividends + buybacks) which gives a favourable shareholder return backdrop. 

Sector tailwinds:

The regional banking stocks have benefitted from elevated interest rate environments, and wealth/fee income growth, which tends to provide more scope for upside than just relying on net interest margin expansion.

Asset quality among these banks remains relatively healthy, which reduces one major layer of risk in earnings. 

Therefore, DBS appears to have the best structural positioning among the three to potentially “set new highs post-earnings”.

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⚠️ What are the risks / headwinds

Even with the positives, there are important caveats:

The margin (net interest margin, NIM) environment is under pressure: For all three banks, NIMs have been declining due to benchmark rate moves. For example, DBS’s NIM fell to ~2.05 % from ~2.14 % a year earlier. 

Loan growth is modest: For DBS 3 % loan growth in 1H 2025 versus peers and slower economic demand. 

Guidance is cautious: For example, DBS expects net profit for 2025 to be below 2024 levels, even if net interest income is maintained “slightly above” 2024. 

The other banks (OCBC and UOB) carry more uncertainty:

OCBC’s earnings growth has been weaker; more margin pressure. 

UOB has more exposure to regional SME/property segments, which may be more cyclically sensitive. 

Upside from earnings surprise is limited unless something materially better than expected appears. Conversely, disappointment could weigh given valuation is already elevated in some cases (particularly DBS).

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🎯 Who is more likely to set new highs post-earnings?

Given the above, my view ranking is:

1. DBS – highest chance of outperforming, perhaps setting fresh highs if it delivers a good result, gives confident guidance, and/or surprises on dividends/share-buybacks.

2. UOB – second chance, but more execution risk. If UOB shows turnaround momentum (cost discipline, loan growth), it could outperform relative to peers.

3. OCBC – this is the most cautious pick. While its dividend yield remains attractive, the margin/loan growth outlook is less compelling and the bar for positive surprise is higher.

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📌 Are they good buys ahead of earnings?

Here is how you might think about it given your investment objectives (you indicated low-income group / affordability, etc):

Buying just ahead of earnings is more speculative: you are exposed to the risk of earnings miss or conservative guidance, which could lead to a sharp pull-back.

If you believe in medium-term (~12-18 months) rather than immediate (~1-2 weeks) horizon, then DBS looks relatively defensible: you get exposure to a well-positioned bank with good shareholder return mechanisms.

For UOB and OCBC, if you are more yield-oriented and comfortable with more risk, they could be considered, but only after you assess recent valuation and risk of margin/earnings pressure.

Ensure position size is modest given earnings event risk, especially because banking is sensitive to macro/interest-rate surprises.

Make sure you align with your own portfolio risk tolerance: you mentioned preferring stability and working towards housing etc — so tilting too aggressive ahead of a binary earnings event may be misaligned.

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📝 My actionable summary

If I were to pick one, I would lean DBS as the most likely to deliver post-earnings upside and potentially set a new high.

If you buy ahead of earnings, do so on small exposure and accept that potential downside exists.

After results, if guidance is positive and numbers beat, additions may make sense rather than just pre-earnings entry.

Keep an eye on key things: NIM trends, loan growth, cost-income ratio, credit costs, and capital return/distribution announcements.

Reflect also your longer-term horizon: If you are holding for a year or more, the pull-back risk is lower; if you are looking for a quick trade around earnings, then you’re taking higher risk.