To The Moon

There was a bitter aftertaste on learning that US market has fallen (again) on Tue, 04 Nov 2025. As of 04 Nov 2025 By the time market called it a day: DJIA : -0.53% (-251.44 to 47,085.24). S&P 500: -1.17% (-80.42 to 6,771.55). Nasdaq: -2.04% (-486,086 to 23,348.637). Root Causes. There were many reasons offered to explain the fall. After going thru the, I think the followings are key factors. (1) AI Stock Valuation Concerns Investors grew wary of sky-high valuations in AI-related stocks. Looks like they are awoken about ongoing concerns about how “closed the loop” is in terms of the companies fueling all artificial intelligence fervour. This is why stock like $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ fell by -7.94%, despite beating Q3 expectations and guiding for $1.33 billion in Q4 revenue. Its forward price-earning (P/E) ratio approached 700, raising red flags about sustainability. As of 04 Nov 2025 Across the board, Technology stocks all fell on Tuesday with the $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ registering a massive -2.64% decline. (2) Warnings from US’s Big Banks. Adding to investors’ concerns are comments made by 3 of US big banks. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$, CEO David Solomon warned of a likely “10% – 20% drawdown” in equities over the next 12–24 months. $Morgan Stanley(MS)$’s CEO Ted Pick echoed similar sentiments, suggesting 10% –15% corrections are healthy & expected. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$’s CEO Jamie Dimon also repeated calls for caution, citing (a) geopolitical tensions and (b) credit market issues as reasons for potential volatility. Comments from the 3 bigwigs, spooked an already nervous investors about stretched valuations and lack of recent corrections. (3) US Fed and Interest Rate Cut. Federal Reserve officials alluded to a “live” December meeting, keeping investors on edge and limiting risk appetite. Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated the case for deep interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes that there is room for further cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is in favour of no rate cut because inflation remains too high. He also argued that (a) high equity prices and (b) elevated high-yield bond issuance showed monetary policy was only modestly restrictive. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated discomfort at the prospect of more cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, is leery of further rate cuts when inflation remains significantly above the central bank's 2% San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly has an "open mind" about the need for a similar move in December. CME Fedwatch Tool. With FOMC next meeting still more than a month to go, latest Fedwatch tool (for now) indicates, there is a 63.8% probability that US central bank will cut interest rates by -0.25% in the December FOMC meeting. (see above) 📆 Rest of the Week (a) Midweek Stabilization: Markets will try to stabilize midweek as investors continue to digest quarterly earnings out this week. 05 Nov 2025 - Applovin Corp, ARM Holding, Novo Nordisk. 06 Nov 2025 - Astrazeneca, ConocoPhillips. 07 Nov 2025 - Constellation Energy Corp, Enbridge Inc. (b) Labour Market Uncertainty: With the government shutdown delaying official jobs data, markets remained jittery. Layoff headlines continued to dominate sentiment. (see below) Amazon, UPS & Target have announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut in 2025. In September 2025, Salesforce has laid off 4,000 jobs, mainly from customer support division. It’s been posted in Reddit that Intel will have another round of layoff in mid-November in Oregon. All these job cuts directly impact US jobs report and jobless claims. With the US government still in shutdown mode, everyone is spared the disappointing set of data (details). It also means when the Trump government resumes, expect disappointing numbers from US economic reports eg. Non-farm payroll, Jobless claims, Retail sales, PCE, CPI, PPI, GDP etc..? Investors will likely oscillate between : Selective buying in quality growth stocks backed by strong results. Cautious profit-taking in overextended sectors, that will keep volatility elevated. The combination of opportunities and risks suggests a nuanced trading environment where active risk management and attention to sector-specific catalysts will be important for navigating the early November market landscape. Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. S&P 500 vs AVGO. Which Is A Better Buy ? Wed, 05 November. Idea post. Meta Q3 Earnings Show Mistake Repeating ! Tue, 04 November. Idea post. PLTR Breaks $210, Post 03 Nov Earnings ? Mon, 03 November. Idea post. Do you think PLTR will consolidate further after breaking thru the $200 resistant level ’? Do you think the 3 Big banks have been “right” about US market has over extended and in need of a pullback ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents