To The Moon

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 results on Monday, November 11, 2025, before the U.S. market opens.

Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast

Analyst consensus suggests significant year-over-year revenue and EPS growth, though recent estimate revisions have trended slightly downward.

Summary of Sea Limited (SE) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings

Sea Limited (SE) delivered a strong financial performance in the fiscal second quarter of 2025 (period ended June 30, 2025), driven by robust growth and improved profitability across all three segments: E-commerce (Shopee), Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney), and Digital Entertainment (Garena).

Key Performance Highlights (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024)

Segment Breakdown

Shopee (E-Commerce): Saw strong momentum with Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growing 28.2% to US$29.8 billion and Gross Orders increasing by 28.6%. The main driver of monetization was core marketplace revenue (transaction fees and advertising), which grew 46.2% year-over-year. The turn to a significant Adjusted EBITDA profit was the most vital metric, validating the company's efficiency drive.

Garena (Digital Entertainment): Demonstrated a clear rebound, with Bookings growing 23.2% and an improved paying user ratio (9.3% vs. 8.1% in Q2 2024), driven by the continued popularity of Free Fire and new content.

SeaMoney (Digital Financial Services): Revenue surged by 70.0%, primarily from its credit business, while maintaining a low and healthy non-performing loan ratio of 1.0%.

Lesson Learned from the Q2 2025 Guidance

The primary lesson learned from Sea's guidance following its Q2 2025 earnings is a strategic shift in balancing growth and profitability, heavily weighted toward re-accelerating growth.

The Core Lesson: Strategic Pivot to Prioritize Growth

Sea's management indicated that, having established profitability across all three business segments, the company is now in a position to re-accelerate investment to capture greater market share and expand its total addressable market.

Key Quote: "Given the high potential of our markets and the stage we are at in our business now, we will continue to prioritize growth, which will pave the way for us to maximize our long-term profitability. At the same time, our company has reached a stage 1where we can pursue growth opportunities while improving profitability."

This pivot was reflected in two major guidance moves:

Garena Bookings Guidance Hike: The company raised its full-year guidance for Garena bookings, expecting them to grow more than 30% year-on-year. This indicated strong confidence in the segment's recovery and ability to consistently generate cash.

Implied Reinvestment in Shopee: The strong profitability reported by Shopee gave management the capital and confidence to state they would pursue growth opportunities aggressively. This means investors should expect:

• Higher Sales & Marketing Spend: Re-investing the e-commerce profits back into growth, which might temporarily slow the rate of further profitability expansion in Shopee.

• Focus on Market Share: A renewed focus on competitive pricing, enhanced logistics (e.g., next-day delivery pilots), and strengthening the content ecosystem (e.g., live streaming) to solidify market dominance in core Southeast Asian and Latin American markets.

Investor takeaway: The lesson is that Sea has transitioned from a company desperately chasing profitability to a profitable growth engine. Management is signaling that, with a healthy balance sheet and all divisions contributing cash, they will aggressively pursue volume and market share over maximizing short-term margins, seeing this as the best path to maximizing long-term enterprise value.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Since Sea operates across three major segments—Garena (Digital Entertainment), Shopee (E-Commerce), and SeaMoney (Digital Financial Services)—investors should focus on the key performance indicators (KPIs) for each:

Shopee (E-Commerce)

Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): This is a critical indicator of Shopee's scale and market share. Analysts expect sustained momentum, partly from market leadership in regions like Brazil.

Revenue Growth: Specifically, revenue growth in this segment and its contribution to the consolidated total will show the success of its expansion and monetization efforts.

Adjusted EBITDA (E-commerce): Shopee's profitability is a major focus. Analysts expect a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, which indicates improved operating leverage and efficiency in its drive to profitability, despite continued investment.

Garena (Digital Entertainment)

Bookings: This represents the total value of games and other digital content sold. Management previously raised its full-year bookings guidance, so hitting or exceeding expectations here is key.

Quarterly Active Users (QAU) and Quarterly Paying Users (QPU): These metrics demonstrate the health of its gaming franchises, especially Free Fire, and its ability to monetize the user base. Analysts project increases for both.

Adjusted EBITDA (Digital Entertainment): Garena has historically been the primary profit engine. Maintaining strong margins and growing EBITDA is crucial to fund the expansion of Shopee and SeaMoney.

SeaMoney (Digital Financial Services)

Loan Book Growth: SeaMoney's loan portfolio has been expanding rapidly (nearly 90% year-over-year growth in the previous half). Continued strong growth is a positive sign.

Credit Quality (e.g., Non-Performing Loan Ratio): As the loan book grows, the stability of credit quality (like the 90-day Non-Performing Loan ratio) is vital for sustainable profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA (Digital Financial Services): Strong growth in this segment's profitability indicates successful scaling and disciplined risk management.

Sea (SE) Price Target

Based on 30 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Sea in the last 3 months. The average price target is $192.71 with a high forecast of $225.00 and a low forecast of $134.00. The average price target represents a 28.52% change from the last price of $149.94.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading around an earnings event is inherently high-risk, as the stock's movement is typically a reaction to the difference between reported numbers/guidance and investor expectations, not just the absolute numbers.

Earnings/Revenue Beat vs. Miss: A significant beat on both EPS and Revenue, especially if coupled with a stronger-than-expected outlook (guidance), could trigger a sharp upward move. Conversely, a miss or weak guidance often leads to a decline.

Segment Performance Disparity: The market will dissect the growth and profitability of each segment:

• Upside Potential (Bullish): A major positive surprise on Shopee's profitability (EBITDA) or higher-than-expected Garena Bookings/Users could fuel a rally.

• Downside Risk (Bearish): Disappointing performance from Shopee's GMV or signs of deteriorating SeaMoney which has been rebranded as Monee credit quality could pressure the stock, as they cast doubt on the core growth drivers. The company's continued aggressive investment in sales and marketing (high operating expenses) is also a point of pressure on profitability.

Model Predictions: Some models suggest a higher probability of an earnings miss this quarter, which could increase volatility. Traders often look at the Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) and Zacks Rank for clues on the likelihood of a beat or miss.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

As we can see that SE have been trading on a negative RSI momentum since October, and the share price is now trading below the short-term (26-EMA and 50-EMA), and just went below the 200-EMA, this could be due to the concerns of Shopee GMV performance and also Monee’s credit quality.

There is also concerns of Sea’s continued aggressive investment in sales and marketing (high operating expenses), so I would think investors need to watch the earnings closely for Shopee GMV performance, Monee’s credit quality updates and also Sea (SE) overall expenses and what the management outlook for the year would be like.

Summary

Sea Limited (SE) is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 earnings on November 11, 2025. Analysts forecast revenues of approx $5.97$ billion (39.9% YoY growth) and EPS of approx $1.03 (90.7% YoY growth), although recent estimate revisions have trended slightly lower.

Key Metrics for Investors:

Shopee (E-commerce): Focus on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and whether the segment's Adjusted EBITDA continues to be positive, reflecting the company's Q2 guidance to aggressively re-invest profits into growth (higher marketing spend).

Garena (Digital Entertainment): Watch for continued recovery, specifically Bookings growth and Quarterly Paying Users (QPU), which are essential for funding the other segments.

SeaMoney (Fintech): Evaluate Loan Book growth (expected near 90% YoY) alongside the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio to ensure disciplined risk management.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity:

The stock's movement will hinge on the trade-off between growth and profitability. A strong beat, especially on Shopee's top-line or Garena's bookings, coupled with encouraging guidance, could spur a rally. However, concerns remain about the impact of the renewed aggressive investment (higher Sales & Marketing costs) on short-term margin expansion, posing a downside risk if the results miss expectations.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Sea could provide a much better Shopee GMV, and the credit quality of Monee would be much improved, and also Sea have managed to control their operating expenses.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.