Circle Rebounds from $100 Support but Faces Heavy Resistance
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
$103.14 (+3.13%): First bounce at round-number $100; downtrend intact—watch $109/$118 for validation
Market Recap
Circle Internet Group closed $103.14, up 3.13%, after trading $96.10–103.33 on ~9.9M shares (vs ~11.3M avg).
Shares are still ~65% below the summer peak (~$299) but +49% YTD.
Drivers today:
(1) round-number support at $100 drew dip buyers;
(2) crypto beta stabilized intraday, easing pressure on stablecoin-ecosystem equities;
(3) pre-earnings positioning into Nov 12 encouraged short covering.
Fundamentally, TTM EPS ~–1.74 implies no meaningful P/E (loss-making), so sentiment and crypto-market tone dominate near-term flows.
Indicators & 1-week outlook
Technicals remain fragile: price sits well below the 2h EMA-20 $109 and EMA-50 $118.9, keeping the downtrend in force.
MACD (2h) is below zero with a flat, slightly negative histogram (≈–0.24) and lines (~–6.63/–6.39) curling sideways—weak momentum repair.
RSI(14) ≈ 30.8 is near oversold, consistent with a dead-cat bounce risk unless follow-through appears.
1-week base case: sideways-to-mild rebound if $100 holds, targeting $109 → $118–120 (EMA cluster).
Bear case: a close < $100 reopens $96 → $90. Key levels: Support $93/$63; Resistance $109 / $118 - 120 / $138.
Valuation: loss-making vs S&P 500 ~25x; Street 12-mo target ~$170 suggests upside if execution and sector sentiment improve.
Risk & Disclaimer:
High-beta, event-driven name with earnings-gap and crypto-correlation risks; liquidity swings can magnify moves. Technical commentary only—not investment advice. Data cross-checked with your Yahoo Finance & TradingView screenshots (today’s close).
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