To The Moon

📈 Technical Analysis

The provided daily chart $Prime US ReitUSD(OXMU.SI)$ , running from May to November 2025, illustrates a significant uptrend after a period of consolidation.

Prime US REIT Technical Chart

Key Observations

• Uptrend Formation: The unit price has been in a clear uptrend since early 2025, marked by the rising 20-day (red) and 50-day (blue) moving averages (MAs), which are positioned above the longer-term 200-day MA (green). This is a classic bullish alignment, or "Golden Cross," indicating sustained upward momentum.

• Moving Averages: The 20-day MA (red) has generally stayed above the 50-day MA (blue), confirming short-term strength, though the price has recently dipped back toward the MAs.

• Trendline Support: A clear upward trendline starting from the April/May 2025 low has acted as reliable dynamic support (indicated by the lower orange circles). This trendline has defined the rate of ascent.

• Resistance Turned Support: A critical horizontal line, previously acting as resistance (circled in blue during the July/Aug and Mar/Apr 2025 periods), has been decisively breached and appears to have transformed into a new support level (indicated by the rightmost orange circle and labeled "Resistance Turned Support"). This horizontal line is situated around the US$0.195 level.

• Recent Price Action: In the immediate term (October-November 2025), the price experienced a sharp correction from its recent high, pulling back towards the key resistance-turned-support level and the rising 20-day and 50-day MAs. The price holding at this confluent support zone suggests a potential bullish continuation or consolidation before a next move.

Technical Outlook

The overall technical picture is bullish[Call] , driven by the strong multi-month uptrend, the maintenance of the key moving averages in a bullish formation, and the successful test of the resistance-turned-support zone. A break below the support zone around US$0.190 and the upward trendline would negate the bullish momentum and signal a deeper correction[Put].

🏦 Fundamental Analysis and Operational Update

Prime US REIT's latest business updates indicate that the REIT is at a potential inflection point, moving past its most challenging period.

Financial and Valuation Metrics

• Valuation Discount: As of the latest updates, Prime trades at a steep discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), with a Price-to-NAV ratio of approximately 0.36x. This deep discount offers a potentially attractive entry point for long-term value investors if the fundamental outlook continues to improve.

• Payout Ratio Hike: A major positive catalyst is the increase in the distributable income payout ratio from a minimal 10% to at least 50% starting from 2H2025. This signals management's confidence in future cash flow stability and a return to meaningful distributions, which is a key factor for yield-focused investors.

• Income Decline: The trust reported a decline in distributable income and DPU for 9M2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to higher finance costs following its August 2024 loan refinancing and lower portfolio occupancy. However, the 3Q2025 performance was generally in line with analyst expectations.

• Liquidity and Debt: The recent US$25 million equity fund raise (EFR) in October 2025 has bolstered liquidity to an estimated US$120 million, providing capital for ongoing capital expenditures, tenant incentives, and improving the debt headroom. The Aggregate Leverage (Gearing Ratio) is at 47% , with no debt maturing in 2025.

Prime US REIT from REITsavvy Screener

Operational Performance (3Q 2025 Updates)

• Improving Occupancy: Portfolio committed occupancy showed continued signs of recovery, improving to 80.7% as of September 30, 2025. Management is guiding for occupancy to reach approximately $\text{85\%}$ by year-end 2025 with the signing of large leases.

• Strong Leasing Momentum: Leasing volume remains robust, with 92,000 square feet of leases signed in 3Q2025. For the first nine months of 2025, 492,000 square feet of leases were signed.

• Positive Rental Reversion: The trust has recorded positive rental reversion, with a strong +14.5% in 3Q2025 and6.4% for the 9M2025 period. This indicates that new and renewed leases are being signed at rents higher than the expiring ones, suggesting pricing power in their submarkets for their quality assets.

• WALE Extension: The Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) has been extended to 4.7 years , providing greater income visibility and stability.

• Future Income Visibility: Crucially, a significant portion of newly signed leases (approximately 10.8% of NLA) is staggered to commence rent contribution from 4Q2025 onwards. This built-in growth is expected to drive a projected $\text{20\%}$ uplift in Net Property Income (NPI) in the coming years.

🇺🇸 US Commercial Office Sector Developments

The broader US commercial office market is showing early, albeit uneven, signs of stabilization, which forms the backdrop for Prime’s performance.

Key Sector Trends in 2025

• Flight to Quality: The most dominant trend is the continued "flight to quality," where tenants prioritize Class A, well-amenitized, and sustainable office spaces in prime locations, often at the expense of older, lower-quality Class B and C buildings. Prime’s portfolio is 100% Class A and $\text{100\%}$ freehold, positioning it well to capture this demand.

• Return-to-Office (RTO) Momentum: Corporate return-to-office mandates have accelerated. Over 50% of major corporations have fixed hybrid or office-first policies, driving up physical office attendance to post-pandemic highs (reaching around 80% of pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025). This sustained demand underpins leasing activity.

• Slowing Supply Pipeline: The US office construction pipeline has shrunk to its lowest level in over a decade. This sharp reduction in new supply, coupled with positive net absorption, is expected to lead to declining vacancy rates in the coming years, especially for high-quality, modern stock.

• Valuation Trough: While office valuations are projected to see a significant drop from 2019 peaks, many analysts believe the asset class is approaching a valuation trough, with strategic investors seeking to acquire quality assets at deep discounts.

• Interest Rate Outlook: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to eventually shift to a rate-cut trajectory over the medium term offer a potential tailwind, which could lead to lower finance expenses for REITs like Prime and further distribution upside.

🎯 Conclusion and Outlook

Prime US REIT's analysis points to a compelling turnaround story, with the technical and fundamental aspects aligning to suggest the REIT is navigating out of its post-pandemic challenges.

The market has priced in much of the prior negative news (high interest rates, low occupancy, and a suppressed payout ratio), leading to a significant discount to NAV and a deeply oversold technical bottom earlier in the year.

The recent 3Q2025 updates provide concrete evidence of stabilization and operational improvement:

• Operational Tailwinds: Improving occupancy, positive rental reversion, and a rising WALE are robust indicators that the portfolio is strengthening and capturing demand from the "flight to quality" trend.

• Financial Catalysts: The hike in the distribution payout ratio to at least 50% is a strong management signal and a key catalyst for unit price re-rating, as it provides a path back to meaningful dividend yields.

• Sector Support: The macro environment in the US office market, characterized by shrinking supply and accelerating RTO mandates, provides a supportive backdrop for Prime's Class A assets.

The technical chart confirms this fundamental improvement, showing a decisive move into a bullish trend supported by both dynamic and horizontal support levels.

In summary, the confluence of bullish technical signals, improving operating metrics, the higher distribution payout policy, and a supportive "flight to quality" in the US market positions Prime US REIT for a potential medium-term recovery and re-rating closer to its NAV

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