To The Moon

$PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PLS.AU)$ jumped 5.28% today, leading the XAO, as China’s lithium prices surged after Ganfeng Lithium chairman Li Liangbin said he expects battery-metal demand to grow 30% in 2026.

Other major lithium names also rallied sharply: $LIONTOWN RESOURCES LTD(LTR.AU)$ +9.56, $MINERAL RESOURCES LTD(MIN.AU)$ +4.51%, $IGO LTD(IGO.AU)$ +4.06, $VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LTD(VUL.AU)$ +3.45%, and $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ +2.22%.

Across the U.S., Hong Kong, and Australia, lithium miners have been on a strong run this week, fuelled by a sharp rebound in China’s lithium carbonate prices and rising optimism about demand heading into 2026.

The futures market echoed the same strength. Lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed limit-up, rising 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton — its highest level since mid-2024.

Why lithium is rising again？

The rebound is being driven by both tighter supply and stronger demand.

On the supply side, CATL’s major Jianxiawo mine has been delayed once again. This mine typically accounts for around 10% of China’s lithium salt supply, so every additional month of downtime tightens the market.

At the same time, inventories across the supply chain have been falling quickly. Chinese converters are running at high utilisation rates, and stock levels are now at their lowest in months.

On the demand front, energy storage has become the new growth engine. China’s energy-storage battery shipments have surged nearly 130% this year, and many factories are fully booked into 2026. EV demand remains healthy as well, adding further support.

Sentiment improved further after Ganfeng’s chairman said he expects lithium demand to rise 30% in 2026 — and suggested prices could climb to 150,000–200,000 yuan per tonne if the market tightens.

What comes next？

In the near term, lithium carbonate prices are likely to stay firm, supported by low inventories and uncertainty around the restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine. November and December are typically strong months for lithium salt output, but if supply disruptions continue, prices could hold above the 100,000-yuan level.

Volatility is still possible. A restart announcement from CATL could cool the futures market and trigger some profit-taking after such a sharp rebound. But most institutional forecasts now point to a tighter market in 2026 as energy-storage deployments accelerate and new supply remains limited. Even Macquarie — usually conservative on lithium — expects the medium-term supply-demand imbalance to widen.

The broader shift is that lithium is no longer tied purely to EV cycles. As electrification expands into grid storage, industrial batteries, and renewable integration, demand is becoming more diversified and less dependent on a single sector.

Top ASX Lithium Stocks to Watch

$PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PLS.AU)$

Stock: $4.19.88 | Market cap: $13.49B | YTD: 91.32%

The benchmark ASX lithium name. PLS owns the world-class Pilgangoora Project and benefits from scale, low costs, and strong downstream partners. Shares have lagged this year, but when spodumene prices firm, Pilbara is usually among the first to re-rate.

$MINERAL RESOURCES LTD(MIN.AU)$

Stock: $50.78 | Market cap: $10.04B | YTD: 48.26%

A diversified miner with major lithium exposure. Despite a volatile year, MIN remains one of Australia’s largest integrated lithium players, supported by logistics and infrastructure advantages.

$IGO LTD(IGO.AU)$

Stock: $6.92 | Market cap: $5.24B | YTD: 45.07%

Once a market favourite, IGO faced operational challenges and earnings pressure. With high-quality WA assets and exposure to nickel and cobalt, it offers leverage across multiple battery metals.

$LIONTOWN RESOURCES LTD(LTR.AU)$

Stock: $1.605 | Market cap: $4.72B | YTD: 205%

Developer of the Kathleen Valley Project, one of Australia’s most important upcoming lithium assets. As production ramps, Liontown could become a major volume-growth story in the next upcycle.

$VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LTD(VUL.AU)$

Stock: $6.3 | Market cap: $1.48B | YTD: +17.76%

A unique “Zero Carbon Lithium” play. VUL’s geothermal-powered extraction process offers near-zero emissions — an ESG advantage that may attract European buyers.

$Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$

Stock: $132.12 | Market cap: $214.8B | YTD: 18.31%

Not a pure-play, but increasingly active in lithium. As a global diversified miner with strategic lithium reserves, Rio provides a more defensive way to gain long-term exposure to the sector.

Today’s Topic:

Do you think this is the start of a new lithium upcycle, or just a short-term squeeze before prices cool again?

Disclaimer:

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.