To The Moon

Here’s my view on the recent plunge in Bitcoin (BTC), where we stand and where we might be headed — with the usual caveat: this is not financial advice.

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What’s happening

1. Bitcoin recently dropped below the US $90,000 level and slid to around the US $86,000 mark. 

2. Market sentiment is shifting distinctly bearish. For example:

The probability of year-end Bitcoin price below US $90,000 is estimated at about 50% in one study. 

Analysts point to “max pain” zones (cost bases of big institutional holders) around US $84,000 to US $73,000 — meaning these are levels where forced selling/liquidation risk is elevated. 

3. The wider macro and structural backdrop is weak:

Liquidity concerns (higher interest-rate environment, less bullish central-bank stance) are weighing on risk assets like crypto. 

On-chain data show short-term holders taking losses, mobile supply getting redistributed, hinting at a deeper corrective phase rather than a simple dip. 

In short: the key support at US $90K has failed, short- and medium-term momentum is negative, and structural tailwinds appear weak for now.

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What’s next (price targets / scenarios)

Given the current state, I think we should consider both base‐case and bearish scenarios.

Base case

If the market enters a consolidation and buyers slowly step in, I see support forming around the US $82,000–US $85,000 range. Some analysts are already pointing here. 

If this holds, Bitcoin may form a base and then attempt a recovery back toward US $90K–US $95K once macro signals (e.g., interest-rate cuts, institutional inflows) improve.

Bearish scenario

If the selling pressure continues and macro conditions stay unfavourable, a deeper decline is plausible:

The “max pain” band between US $84,000–US $73,000 remains a key risk zone. 

Some analysts suggest a move toward US $60,000 if liquidity worsens and institutional outflows persist. 

Therefore, if you asked for a specific next target: US $80,000 is a very plausible short‐term downside zone (if US $85K fails to hold), and if that gives way, the next “hard” level to watch is the low-to-mid US $70,000s.

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Key factors to watch

To gauge which scenario may play out, keep an eye on:

Institutional flows (ETF inflows/outflows, large wallet activity)

Central-bank policy and interest-rate expectations (as these drive liquidity)

On-chain metrics of investor behaviour (who’s holding vs selling)

Cracks in key support zones: if US $84K/US $85K break decisively, that increases odds of deeper drop

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My summary view

Given your interest in broad market trends, my view is that we are not yet at a safe “buy the dip” moment for Bitcoin — rather, we are in a correction. The risk-reward currently leans negative unless support holds convincingly and macro conditions improve.

So if you like:

Conservative stance: recognise the risk of a drop toward ~US $72K-US $75K before strong recovery

Moderate stance: prepare for a move toward ~US $80K, maybe a bounce from there if the zone holds

Optimistic stance: only when we see signal of stabilisation (e.g., reclaiming US $95K) do I consider a more bullish posture.