To The Moon

**Lei Jun Buys the Dip:

Is Xiaomi at HK$40 the Bottom… or a Sneaky Top?** 🤔📉📈

When founders buy their own stock, investors take notice.

When Lei Jun—Mr. “All In”—drops over HK$100 million to scoop 2.6M Xiaomi shares, people pay attention. 👀🔥

And this wasn’t an isolated flex.

Just days before, Xiaomi itself bought back 21.5M shares across two sessions, spending over HK$800M.

That’s nearly HK$1B bought in one week by both the company and the founder.

So the million-dollar question:

Is HK$40 a fortress bottom… or the start of a bull trap top? 🏰🐻🐂

Let’s break it down.

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1️⃣ Why Lei Jun’s Buy Matters More Than Typical Insider Buys 🌟🧠

Lei Jun isn’t just a founder — he’s practically Xiaomi’s chief storyteller, chief brand, and chief evangelist.

When he buys, it sends three strong signals:

🔹 Signal #1: He thinks Xiaomi EVs are about to inflect

The SU7 launch created one of China’s strongest EV brand moments in years.

Order backlog is solid.

Margins are improving.

And EV ASPs are beating expectations.

This isn’t a petty trade — it’s a positioning bet for Xiaomi’s next 5 years. 🚗⚡

🔹 Signal #2: He sees the valuation as too cheap

At HK$40, Xiaomi traded at:

• Lower multiples than most Chinese EV peers

• A discount to its own historical range

• A depressed valuation despite rising revenues

To Lei Jun, this probably looked like a market mispricing.

🔹 Signal #3: He wants to anchor investor confidence

Founder buys during volatility = “I’m not scared. You shouldn’t be either.”

CEO psychology plays a major role in sentiment.

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2️⃣ Why Xiaomi’s Buyback Matters Even More 💰🏦

Buybacks usually signal:

• Excess cash

• Belief the stock is undervalued

• A desire to support the share price

The fact that Xiaomi executed buybacks AND Lei Jun bought personally within days sends one message:

📢 “We think the market doesn’t understand us right now.”

This is a double endorsement from both corporate and personal accounts.

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3️⃣ So Is HK$40 the Bottom? Or a Bull Trap? ⚖️🤨

Let’s evaluate objectively.

🟢 Bull Case (Why HK$40 Could Be the Bottom)

1. EV momentum is real and underestimated 🚗⚡

Xiaomi SU7 is selling beyond expectations; analysts are STILL adjusting up.

2. Founder buying = major signal

Founders buy far less often than retail thinks.

When they do buy:

They’re rarely wrong about long-term trend direction.

3. Buybacks create a price floor 🚧

8–10 figures of buybacks doesn’t guarantee a bottom,

but it hurts shorts and tightens supply.

4. Weak sentiment already priced in

China equities = fear zone.

But Xiaomi is one of the rare tech names with:

• Global brand

• Cash generation

• Multi-business engines

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🔴 Bear Case (Why HK$40 Might Be a Short-Term Top)

1. Macro remains a hurricane 🌪️

China consumer sentiment is still fragile.

EV subsidies are still evolving.

Global geopolitics = uncertain.

Macro can overwhelm micro.

2. Profitability of EV is still early

Xiaomi’s EV business is in its investment phase, not the “harvest” phase.

Margins will be thin for some time.

3. Rally exhaustion risk

A big founder/ company buy often creates a short-term spike—

but without sustained institutional inflow, it can fade.

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**4️⃣ The Verdict: HK$40 Is… Not the Absolute Bottom,

But Very Likely a Long-Term Accumulation Zone** 🎯📘

If your horizon = weeks → volatility is still ahead.

If your horizon = 12–36 months → this is historically where smart money accumulates.

✔️ Founder buying

✔️ Corporate buybacks

✔️ EV momentum

✔️ Attractive valuation

✔️ Fear-driven market

This forms a classic long-term accumulation cocktail 🍹📈.

HK$40 may not be the perfect bottom—

but it is very likely the right neighbourhood.

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5️⃣ How to Play It (If You’re Interested) 🎮💡

🔥 Strategy A → Build in Batches (Smart Money Style)

Buy 30% → wait for dips → add on macro panic

This avoids timing mistakes.

🌈 Strategy B → EV Catalyst Trade (Momentum Style)

Buy into EV data, SU7 numbers, or Q earnings

Sell after momentum spike.

🛡 Strategy C → Long-Term Core Position

Treat Xiaomi like Tesla 2018 or BYD 2016:

Early phase, misunderstood, storm-before-sunrise.

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Final Take

Lei Jun isn’t buying for a 10% pop.

He’s buying for the next chapter of Xiaomi’s empire. 🔥🏯

HK$40 may not be the bottom of the chart—

but it very likely is the bottom of the story arc.

And that’s where the most interesting returns begin. 🚀📘