To The Moon

Market Pullback After a Strong November

The holiday season may be in full swing, but investors showed little appetite for risk to start December. U.S. equities slipped on Monday following the sharp, late-month rally that rescued November’s performance.

• Dow Jones: –0.9%

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : –0.5%

• $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : –0.5%

After last week’s powerful rebound, driven by renewed optimism for a December Fed rate cut, markets entered a holding pattern as investors reassessed valuations and awaited more concrete catalysts.

Despite the pullback in indices, risk sentiment was mixed: Bitcoin slumped, but mega-cap tech held firm, and silver surged to a record high, offering an unusual bright spot in the commodities space.

Seasonality vs. Fed Reality

Historically, December has been a positive month for equities, with the S&P 500 posting gains in 12 of the past 20 years, averaging a 0.59% return. But this year, markets face a dominant counter-force: next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

December’s usual seasonality “may matter less than whatever the Fed does and says next week,” which will likely determine whether markets extend gains…or receive a “lump of coal.”

Early Holiday Spending: Consumers Still Showing Up

Cyber Monday capped a long weekend of heavy promotions, and early data suggest American shoppers continue to spend, especially online.

Cyber Monday

Key highlights:

• $30 billion spent online from Thanksgiving to Sunday (Adobe)

• Cyber Monday expected to reach a record $14.2B

• Online spending: +9.1% YoY on Black Friday

• In-store sales: +1.7% YoY, while foot traffic dipped modestly

• Total Black Friday spending (online + in-store): +4.1% YoY

E-commerce remains the biggest winner. Many digital-native brands derived 30% or more of yearly orders in this single week.

Yet inflation played a role: with prices up roughly 3% YoY, some of the nominal gains likely reflect higher price tags rather than higher volumes.

Corporate and Macro Highlights to Watch

This week brings several important market drivers, across earnings, policy, and global macro developments.

Earnings on Deck

• CrowdStrike

• $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$

• Pure Storage

• American Eagle Outfitters

• GitLab, Okta, Box

• Signet Jewelers

• Bank of Nova Scotia

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ and Snowflake follow mid-week, while retailers like Dollar General and Ulta report Thursday.

Key Economic & Policy Developments

• Fed leadership: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is now seen as the frontrunner for Fed Chair, with an announcement imminent.

• Japan shock: The Bank of Japan signaled a potential rate hike, pushing the 2-year JGB yield above 1% for the first time since 2008, sending ripples through global bond markets.

• Crypto unwind: Nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during a sharp market drop.

• AI ecosystem consolidation: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ purchased $2 billion of $Synopsys(SNPS)$ stock, deepening strategic ties.

• Auto slowdown: U.S. car buyers are resisting high prices; low-income borrower defaults are rising.

• AI reshapes consulting: Major firms (McKinsey, BCG) have frozen starting salaries for a third straight year amid structural shifts.

• Healthcare pricing: Eli Lilly lowers cash prices for GLP-1 drug Zepbound following White House pressure.

• Airbus inspections: Hundreds of A320 jets face urgent structural checks, potentially disrupting delivery targets.

Sector & Stock Highlights

• Best Sector: Energy (+0.9%)

• Worst Sector: Utilities (–2.4%)

• Hot Stock: Synopsys (+4.9%), buoyed by the Nvidia partnership

• Biggest Loser: Moderna (–7.0%) amid biotech volatility

Conclusion - A Pause Before the Next Big Catalyst

Markets have stepped back after November’s powerful rebound, reflecting caution rather than renewed pessimism. With December’s seasonality supportive but sentiment fragile, investors are now focused squarely on:

• The upcoming Fed meeting

• Earnings from key tech and retail names

• Evidence of sustained holiday consumer strength

A benign inflation print and a dovish Fed outlook could reignite December’s typical upside. But for now, markets are catching their breath, waiting for clarity on policy, growth, and the durability of the U.S. consumer…

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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