You raised very timely and important questions about Bitcoin (BTC). There is no certainty of course, but here is how I view the situation — and why a drop toward US $ 80 000–75 000 remains a plausible outcome, albeit not the only one.
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🔎 What’s going on now
Bitcoin recently slid again, trading around US $ 86 000–87 000 after a rebound from as low as ~US $ 80 000.
The bounce above US $ 90 000 that some hoped would signal a resumption of a bullish trend has failed to hold. Resistance in the US $ 88 000–90 000 zone appears strong.
The market now seems to be in a consolidation/accumulation phase rather than a resumed bull run, with trading sentiment described as “extreme fear.”
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⚠️ Why a drop to US $ 80 000 (or lower) remains possible
Analysts highlight that poor liquidity, ongoing outflows from institutional products (e.g. ETFs), and continuous selling or profit-taking by long-term holders remain headwinds.
The technical structure: if Bitcoin fails to hold above key support zones around US $ 83 000–85 000, the risk of retesting lower support around US $ 80 000 becomes more pronounced.
Some scenarios even suggest that, if downward pressure persists, Bitcoin could dip toward levels in the mid-US $ 70 000s.
Hence, your scepticism — that the rebound may be over — is justified. The market environment remains fragile, and without a renewed catalyst or institutional demand returning, the downside cannot be dismissed.
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🟢 Why holding levels around US $ 80 000 may still offer a floor (for now)
Some analysts view the ~US $ 80 000 region as a “market mean” or “true-market value” zone — effectively a potential bottom if selling pressure eases.
A rebound from this zone remains possible especially if macroeconomic conditions stabilise (e.g. interest-rate expectations, liquidity, institutional risk appetite).
If a bounce occurs, the near-term target for recovery could be in the region of US $ 90 000–96 000, depending on renewed demand and broader market sentiment.
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🧭 My View — What Likely Happens Next
I think the most probable outcome over the next few weeks to months is consolidation with downside risk — i.e. Bitcoin hovering between roughly US $ 80 000 and US $ 90 000. I expect near-term attempts at upside will likely face resistance around US $ 88 000–90 000.
If the broader macroeconomic headwinds (global risk aversion, weak institutional flows, regulatory uncertainties) persist or worsen, a test of the US $ 75 000–80 000 zone is quite plausible.
Only a clear change in market drivers — for example renewed institutional inflows, strong macro softness (leading to rate cuts), or a significant risk-on shift — could give Bitcoin a better chance to regain upward momentum toward US $ 95 000+.
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