To The Moon

Amazon, Marvell, Google vs. NVIDIA — The AI Throne Is No Longer Safe. At $180, Is NVDA Finally a Sell?

For two years, NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  has been the undisputed king of AI chips. Every earnings report smashed expectations. Every dip was bought. Every analyst raised targets as if the chart only went one direction.

But something important is happening in the background — the challengers have arrived, and they’re not small players.

They’re trillion-dollar hyperscalers with one shared goal: break free from NVIDIA’s pricing power.

And the market is not pricing this shift correctly.

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🚨 Amazon Just Drew First Blood — and Others Are Following

Amazon’s new in-house AI chip isn’t just another press release. It’s a strategic declaration:

“We don’t want to pay NVIDIA’s prices anymore.”

This alone should make investors pause. But the timing is what’s most alarming:

🔹 Google $Alphabet(GOOGL)$   is aggressively scaling TPUs

🔹 Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO)$   is building custom AI accelerators for hyperscalers

🔹 Marvell snapped up Celestial AI to attack interconnect bottlenecks

🔹 Meta is ramping its own silicon roadmap

NVIDIA is now surrounded not by startups…

but by the same customers that built its rise.

This is the subtle but massive shift the market is underestimating.

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📉 The Core Risk: NVIDIA Is Losing Leverage

For years, NVIDIA held the strongest position in tech:

Demand exceeded supply, competitors lagged, and hyperscalers had no choice but to buy GPUs.

That era may be ending.

Here’s the danger no one talks about:

1️⃣ Hyperscalers want to cut costs — and NVDA is their biggest expense

A small shift — even 5–10% of workloads — away from NVIDIA could wipe billions from NVDA’s future revenue.

2️⃣ AI workloads are moving from training → inference

Inference chips don’t need to be NVIDIA-based.

This is where Amazon and Google can rapidly gain share.

3️⃣ The “monopoly-margin era” may be peaking

Competition doesn’t need to beat NVIDIA.

All it needs to do is pressure pricing — and suddenly the valuation becomes fragile.

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⚠️ Meanwhile, the Stock Is Priced for Absolute Perfection

At $180, the market is still assuming:

✔ NVIDIA stays the only must-have chip

✔ Margins remain ultra-high

✔ Competitors remain second-tier

✔ Hyperscalers keep spending like 2023–2024

But today’s reality looks different:

Rising competition

Rising capex from rivals

Internal chip roadmaps accelerating

AI spending normalising

Margin risks emerging for the first time since 2022

NVIDIA is still great —

but greatness doesn’t guarantee infinite valuation.

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🔥 The Bearish Argument: This Is the First Real Crack in NVDA’s Armor

The AI boom has been NVIDIA’s golden age.

But now?

The moat is being tested.

The monopoly is being diluted.

And the inflation of competition is finally here.

If Amazon, Google, Broadcom, Marvell, and Meta all eat small slices of the pie… NVIDIA still wins, but the upside from here becomes much harder.

Meanwhile, the stock is acting like competition doesn’t exist at all.

That’s where risk sits.

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🧭 My Take: $180 Looks More Like a Sell Zone Than a Buy

Unless NVIDIA delivers another blowout quarter AND proves hyperscalers won’t slow GPU purchases, the stock’s risk-reward shifts negative at current levels.

For traders:

Rallies into $185–$190 may be opportunities to lock in gains.

For long-term investors:

Great company, but you may want to wait for a reset —

especially as competitors launch real silicon into the market.

💬 What do you think?

Are we witnessing the beginning of NVIDIA’s first real competitive cycle?

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