To The Moon

⭐ 2025 Reflection — What the Market Taught Me

2025 started with confidence because of last year’s gains.

The first two months were calm, and many expected a correction, but few expected the speed of the decline.

The market dropped almost 20% in 30–40 sessions, wiping out most of 2024’s gains.

What made the drawdown manageable was the asset allocation, if it tanks 30% will the confidence factor increase to buy the dips and since The earlier selection was  quality and ETF. Deciding factor is raise funds quickly and absorb the dips as much as I can 

I added during declines, but the biggest lesson was:

Have rules, and follow them exactly.

I broke my own rule by buying dips too early.

I added after a small 20-point drop in SPY, but the index later fell more than 120 points.

The takeaway is clear:

Set your averaging levels and stick to them.

Price will always become attractive at some point — patience matters.

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⭐ Simple Rule That Helped

• Add only after a 20% decline

• Aim for a 40% recovery target (reasonable and historically normal)

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⭐ Market Observations

• Stock rotation matters — some names run late but still lead the year, like Google.

• Markets avoided high-PE names for long stretches.

• Cash was the most valuable tool during fast corrections I wonder why this guy Warren sit So much in cash but all securities crashed and came to the normal PE levels 

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⭐ Risk Principles That Worked

1. Avoid heavy concentration.

2. Avoid penny stocks or 60× PE names.

3. Avoid “story stocks” priced at 100× multiples.

What works better:

1. Use index ETFs as the core.

2. From that universe, select high-conviction names with reasonable valuations.

3. Allocate only a small portion to beaten-down opportunities.

Staying within your circle of competence is key.

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⭐ Stress Test of March & April

These months tested discipline, patience, and belief in the framework.

Eventually, the process worked.

The shortlist remained consistent: TSMC, Google, Microsoft, Amazon — businesses around 30× PE or below.

Averaging with structure, not emotion, made the difference.

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⭐ Mistakes

• Adding too quickly (after only a 5% dip).

• Better approach: If target size is $10,000, add 1/10 or 1/3, then scale only as the decline deepens.

• Average only up to 20% decline, not sooner.

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⭐ What Worked

• MAG7 low-PE opportunities

• Index exposure for stability

• Controlled leverage added during peak fear in April

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⭐ Hard Truths

• High PE = fragile.

Novo Nordisk showed how valuations can compress sharply.

• Even large, respected companies can fall 60%.

UnitedHealth proved that size doesn’t protect valuation.

• Stock-picking needs time — 6 months is often too short for a thesis to play out.

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⭐ Dry Powder Matters

Cash made all the differences if you are in shortfall have the contacts with bankers and the smae time make sure your credit limit and score help them disburse in a days time at lower rates 

Markets move quickly and perception changes overnight.

Valuation resets can happen without warning.

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⭐ New Addition: Importance of Bankers

One practical lesson from this year:

Maintain strong relationships with your bankers.

When markets fall sharply, the quickest liquidity source is often:

• Your existing banking relationships

• Pre-approved credit lines

• Portfolio credit against strong assets

• Low-interest short-term borrowing

Having the ability to access capital immediately — at reasonable interest rates — can:

• Prevent forced selling

• Allow you to hold during stress

• Help you add selectively when valuations become attractive

This is a professional practice most institutions follow.

Retail investors often ignore it, but it is extremely useful.

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⭐ Opportunities Ahead

• Some sectors still have reasonable valuations.

• Multiples will normalise as sentiment shifts.

apart from mag7 you will see all the good big names in other sectors trades at 15PE but which one you allocate capital that's the question ?

Target is compound at 30 or 20% based on what you want 

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⭐ Challenges to Accept

• Never average too early.

• Be strict with valuation multiples.

• Avoid chasing stocks that jump from 15× to 30× PE within weeks.

• Selling discipline is the hardest skill — harder than buying and even harder than holding.

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⭐ Closing the Year

Ending the year with ~40–50% gains is good, but the true progress was in:

• improving discipline

• respecting levels

• valuing cash

When something drops in value I add more 

But real honest question is how to follow the principle which we set , I breached the boundary by buying the dip so quick like 20 points fall in SPY , but the index corrected almost 120 points only tool is cash u add more Since it is a index you know will be ok after months or years. If you set a principle

I will add more at so and so price never add in between that's what I learnt no matter how good the stock it will be attractive at one point 

The rule of thumb is you buy at 20% fall and set a 40% target quite achievable 

Resoect stock rotation if something doesn't move not bad but takes time 

Google they ran last and End up first 

Markets still didn't respect Microsoft Amazon meta the mulplies were high markets hesitate 

Always keep contacts with bankers you never know they will be the one will help in case of troubles 

At end of the day this business will run if the asset we choose

1). Not concentrated in one 

2). No penny or stocks with 60 multiple 

3). Not investing in stories with 100 multiples

$Alphabet(GOOG)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  

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What I Learnt (Hard Truths)

• High PE = High Fragility.

Even giants fall — Novo Nordisk reminded me of that.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$  

• No stock is too big to fail.

Even stocks sitting in the top 5 portfolios of super-investors can drop 60% — UnitedHealth proved it.

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$  

Stock-picking mastery takes time.

A 6-month thesis doesn’t always play out. Some ideas need a year or more to reveal themselves.

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Dry Powder

- Markets perception changes very quickly heard from an analyst if we r in recession  the PE multiples for index should be 14 not 24 that is 50% roughly , give that markets fall 20% other 20% fall will result in devastation. Honestly what markets witnessed in April were not fed intervention but BlackRock cello Intervention

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Challenges to Accept

• Never average in a hurry.

Price is not the thesis — business and valuation are.

• Watch the multiples carefully.

In this market, stocks move from 15× PE to 30× PE in days.

Chasing those moves destroys returns.

• Mastering the Sell is the hardest skill.

Buying is easy.

Holding is hard.

Selling at the right time is an art.

And yes…

Selling is VERY tough. Extremely tough.

Reason is have held Google for close to 6 months to live from 140 to 240 but the stock mived from 240 to 320 in months that's the difference and reward

At last happy to close year with 40 to 50 percent gains