To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bullish $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ Bullish 

I’m treating this holiday week like a microstructure trap, because thin liquidity makes headlines louder and price moves more honest.

I’m heading into New Year’s week with a very specific mindset. Liquidity is patchy, positioning is distorted by year-end flows, and the market is hyper-reactive to a small number of catalysts. I’m not here to get hypnotised by narratives. I’m here to identify where the tape can get forced, where options positioning can amplify moves, and where the obvious take becomes the wrong trade.

This week is New Year’s.

Wednesday is the last trading day of 2025.

The stock market is closed Thursday, 01Jan26, for New Year’s Day.

There are 0 earnings this week, but earnings season is never far away, and the January 2026 calendar ramps hard once we’re through the holiday tape.

🕰️ Market structure and timing

I’m respecting the early close. U.S. markets close at 1:00pm ET on Wednesday, 31Dec25. Liquidity disappears faster than most expect in the final stretch.

I’m treating Thursday, 01Jan26, as a full shutdown. No price discovery, no positioning signals.

I’m using the NYSE holiday schedule as a forward-planning tool, not trivia. Holiday structure changes liquidity, and liquidity changes the truthfulness of price.

This is not a prediction week. It’s a precision week.

I’m identifying which narratives survive thin liquidity so I know exactly where to press when earnings and volume return in January.

🗓️ Weekday structure from the chart (Monday → Friday)

Monday, 29Dec25

I’m starting the week with volatility and defence firmly on the radar. Energy Fuels ($UUUU) and Applied Digital ($APLD) are flagged for elevated volatility based on options volume. On the momentum side, 14-day RSI extremes matter in a thin tape. Most overbought readings include Hycroft Mining ($HYMC), Amicus ($FOLD), and Charlotte’s Web ($CWBHF). Most oversold include CVR Energy ($CVI), Tile Shop ($TTSH), and Lamb Weston ($LW).

At 10:00 a.m., Pending Home Sales (Nov) prints.

At 10:30 a.m., the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey hits.

Tuesday, 30Dec25

This is a stealth macro day. All day, I’m watching for the Nevada Gaming Commission and Nevada Gaming Control Board to release November gaming win data. The swing factor is Las Vegas Strip performance, especially any residual impact from the Formula 1 weekend.

Names in focus: $CZR $MGM $BYD $WYNN $VICI $FLL $BALY $RRR

At 9:00 a.m., the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index prints.

At 10:30 a.m., the Dallas Fed Texas Retail Outlook Survey follows.

At 2:00 p.m., the FOMC Minutes drop, and in a holiday tape, nuance can still move rates.

Wednesday, 31Dec25

All day, I’m respecting year-end mechanics. Historically, the final trading day of the year slightly underperforms due to tax-loss harvesting and portfolio window dressing.

Six Flags Entertainment ($FUN) is also scheduled to open and operate its first theme park outside the U.S. next week, a notable travel and leisure development tied to Saudi Arabia’s Qiddiya City.

At 1:00 p.m., U.S. equity markets close early for New Year’s observance.

Thursday, 01Jan26

All day, U.S. stock markets are closed for New Year’s Day.

Friday, 02Jan26

This is where narrative risk explodes. I’m watching delivery updates from Tesla ($TSLA) alongside auto peers $NIO $XPEV $RIVN $LI $GELYY $PSNY $LCID.

Quarterly sales reports from $GM $F $TM also matter.

Secondary data points include Macau gross gaming revenue, Class 8 truck orders, FBI background check data, and discount broker DARTs reports.

📍 Macro calendar, only the data that matters

I’m not chasing a busy week. I’m isolating the handful of prints that can actually move rates, credit, and equity beta in thin conditions.

Monday

Pending Home Sales MoM printed +1.9% versus 0.7% forecast. YoY remains negative at -0.4%. Housing is stabilising at the margin, not re-accelerating.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index collapsed to -10.4 versus -2.5 expected. Manufacturing remains the weak link.

EIA crude inventories fell -1.274M while gasoline inventories rose +4.808M, a quiet inflation-expectations input in thin tape.

Tuesday

Case-Shiller printed +1.4% YoY versus 1.3% expected. Prices are firm, affordability remains the constraint.

Chicago PMI came in at 36.3, deep in contraction.

FOMC Minutes drop at 2:00pm ET. With no Fed speakers this week, nuance will be over-interpreted.

Wednesday

MBA 30-year mortgage rates sit at 6.31%.

Initial Jobless Claims printed 214K versus 222K expected. Labour remains firm, not recessionary.

Markets close early at 1:00pm ET.

I’m using the NYSE holiday schedule as a liquidity map, not trivia. Structure changes liquidity, and liquidity changes the truthfulness of price.

🧭 A quiet but historic transition

Wednesday also marks Warren Buffett’s final day as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Regardless of positioning, this is a symbolic regime transition. Markets rarely price symbolism immediately, but they remember it. Leadership eras matter when capital discipline is being repriced across sectors.

📈 $TSLA deliveries, structure over spectacle

Friday brings Tesla deliveries and the first full liquidity session of 2026.

The media already has four headlines written. They’ll just pick the one that fits the price action.

High numbers, stock up.

High numbers, stock down.

Low numbers, stock up.

Low numbers, stock down.

I’m not trading deliveries. I’m trading structure.

From the daily chart, Tesla is $475.22, down -2.10% on the session shown. RSI sits at 57.28, constructive but cooling. Repeated resistance tests were followed by a weak close on Friday. Structure now favours a re-test of support. Caution is warranted, not panic.

The Daily Bx-Trender closed red, and price lost the volume shelf that held the prior session. Short-term correction probabilities have increased.

⚡ Robotaxi reality check

The launch party on 22Jun was followed by a -19% move in 9 days. Structure beat spectacle then. Maybe this time is different. Maybe it isn’t.

🎄 Grinch Santa Rally tracker

Day 1: -0.03%

Day 2: -2.10%

Seasonality doesn’t pay my bills unless structure agrees.

How I’m structuring it

I’m favouring equity over short-dated options. If I use options, they’re defined-risk structures with time. If IV inflates, I want to get paid for volatility, not donate to it. Repeated resistance plus a weak close is not the moment to ignore gravity.

⚠️ Holiday tape rule

I’m not paying premium for conviction when liquidity is thin.

🧠 Crypto signalling, timing matters

Recent Ethereum purchase announcements have hit around 8:30am ET on Mondays. Bitcoin updates have dropped closer to 8:00am ET. In thin liquidity, signalling becomes price. I’m watching proxies and risk sentiment, not trading the press release.

For the Tom Lee and Michael Saylor watchers, I’m expecting the usual early-week treasury signal cycle.

Tom Lee and $BMNR have typically announced weekly Ethereum ($ETH) purchases around 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday mornings.

Michael Saylor and $MSTR have consistently released Bitcoin ($BTC) purchase updates exactly at 8:00 a.m. ET on Monday mornings.

I’m not trading the press release itself. I’m watching how crypto proxies and risk sentiment react when liquidity is already thin.

🤖 AI infrastructure, where capital is actually rotating

AI infrastructure spend could reach $1.2T. Roughly $900B flows to accelerators. The overlooked $300B flows to networking, interconnects, storage, and power. Margins are smaller, but demand scales relentlessly. Most traders chase the loudest GPU headline. My edge is staying honest about second-order flows.

🎰 Nevada gaming, a stealth macro tell

I’m watching for the Nevada Gaming Commission and Nevada Gaming Control Board to release November gaming win data this week. The key swing factor is Las Vegas Strip performance, particularly any residual impact from the Formula 1 weekend.

This is not a casino headline trade. It’s a read on discretionary elasticity, Strip pricing power, and downstream REIT cash flows.

Names I’m tracking closely: $CZR $MGM $BYD $WYNN $VICI $FLL $BALY $RRR

🛡️ Defense, a policy repricing event

When Trump meets defense contractors to discuss production schedules, buybacks, and capital deployment, the signal is speed. Throughput matters more than optics.

Lockheed Martin has reduced shares outstanding by roughly 46.76% since 2005, a -3.1% CAGR. That discipline supported EPS. At this stage of the cycle, reinvestment into capacity and delivery cadence carries greater long-term value.

The $10B C-130J ceiling modification through 2035 reinforces backlog visibility. Redirecting capital toward execution speed strengthens pricing power.

Northrop Grumman’s revenue growth from $23.5B in 2015 to $41B in 2024 reflects program density. Hypersonic missile-warning satellites embed the company into sovereign infrastructure.

Raytheon aligns directly with urgency through missile defence.

For General Dynamics and Boeing, execution credibility will move multiples faster than backlog size.

🔍 What I’m watching next

Which platforms receive explicit production priority.

Where delivery timelines are accelerated.

Which companies are cited for execution discipline.

If throughput becomes the benchmark, execution becomes the multiple.

🧨 Volatility and positioning watch

I’m tracking Energy Fuels and Applied Digital for options-driven volatility.

Most overbought: Hycroft Mining, Amicus Therapeutics, Charlotte’s Web.

Most oversold: CVR Energy, Tile Shop Holdings, Lamb Weston.

🌍 The bigger picture

I’m trading inside a market where geopolitical urgency reshapes capital allocation, AI infrastructure becomes industrial policy, and liquidity is the hidden hand behind so-called fundamentals. Most traders chase the loudest event. I focus on where thin liquidity, macro timing, and positioning collide.

📋 My focused watchlist

Macro: Pending Home Sales, Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims

Mega catalysts: Tesla deliveries, crypto treasury updates

AI infrastructure: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Western Digital, Spotify

Defense: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Boeing

Gaming: Caesars, MGM, Wynn, VICI

Volatility: Energy Fuels, Applied Digital, RSI extremes

Conclusion

I’m treating the week of 29Dec2025 as a precision week, not a prediction week. I’m protecting capital now so I can press when liquidity and earnings return. Discipline here earns opportunity later.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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