To The Moon

Over the past months, I have shared two ‘super growth’ US listed stocks - $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$.

Click on the links to read:

• 25 Nov 2025 - CRWV, A Time Bomb. Don't Dip Buy ! Get Out ?

• 26 Aug 2025 - CoreWeave the NEW Palantir. Not so fast !

CoreWeave.

In H1 2025, CRWV was indeed a Wall Street darling following its March 2025 IPO, with the AI-hyperscaler’s stock price soaring nearly +370% to a peak of $187 by late June 2025. (see above)

This status has faded since as the stock crashed over -60%, a downfall precipitated by a combination of:

• Widening losses.

• Massive debt that surged to over $18.4 billion.

• Mounting execution risks that stemmed from supply chain bottlenecks and data center construction delays.

• Growing skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI infrastructure boom, courtesy of Michael Burry’s early November 2025, “negative bet” against the AI sector.

Despite reporting record revenues and a massive $55.6 billion backlog, CRWV has sparked a sector-wide re-evaluation, due to its:

• Widening free cash flow deficit of nearly $8 billion.

• Sensitivity to the capital-intensive nature of hardware replacement.

This as investors begin to move quickly away from the "supplier-only" Infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) model that CRWV represents.

The downturn in CRWV has prompted a rigorous re-assessment of NBIS.

Investors are now weighing whether its managed-cloud model offers a safer haven or merely a different set of capital-intensive risks.

In truth, NBIS has emerged as a favorite within the US AI sector; this is hardly surprising given its exceptional growth metrics.

At first glance, it looks exactly like the kind of company that should benefit from this cycle:

• In Q3 2025, NBIS has reported revenue of $146 million, marking a +355% YoY increase and nearly +40% growth sequentially.

• Management consistently reports that its capacity is sold out almost as soon as it becomes operational, with an annualized run-rate for the core business reaching approximately $551 million by late September 2025.

• As of late 2025, 100% of available GPU capacity was reportedly sold out.

This narrative fits neatly into the broader AI cycle, where demand for compute power continues to outpace supply.

CRWV vs NBIS - Business Model.

While NBIS is often compared to CRWV — a company previously rated as a "Buy," a technical and structural analysis reveals meaningful differences.

• CRWV operates primarily as an infrastructure enabler, providing "bare metal" GPU access where customers manage their own software stacks.

• NBIS, in contrast builds a more complex "finished product" around the hardware, offering a managed AI cloud that includes proprietary server racks, electronics, and a custom operating system.

• Its integrated approach provides better performance and streamlined user experience, but it carries higher fixed costs and greater operational risks, regarding security and software stability.

• While CRWV has been scaling aggressively with a massive revenue backlog approaching $56 billion, NBIS is playing catch-up, aiming to increase its active capacity from roughly 220 megawatt (MW) at the end of 2025 to a range of 800 MW -1 GW by the end of 2026.

NBIS’s financial health has becomes a point of concern, despite the impressive top-line growth,

A closer examination reveals underlying concerns.

These stem not from a lack of demand (where annualized run-rate revenue projected to reach $7 - $9 billion by year-end 2026) but rather from :

• Capital requirements.

• Structural risks embedded in the business.

NBIS reported a net loss of approximately $120 million in the most recent quarter, as the model requires huge upfront capital.

To fund this, NBIS raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion, with plans to utilize an at-the-market (ATM) equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares.

This immediately, signals significant future dilution for shareholders.

Valuation.

In comparison, while CRWV also carries heavy debt and high interest expenses, its valuation is more conservative.

CRWV trades at approximately 5x to 8x sales, while NBIS is trading at an extremely elevated enterprise value to sales (EV/S) ratio of roughly 65x.

For context, even industry leader $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ trades near 22x.

This makes NBIS’s valuation appear stretched given its execution and geopolitical risks.

Technical Analysis.

Technical profile for NBIS as of late 2025 reflects a stock undergoing a valuation reset following its peak earlier in the year.

NBIS closed off Wed, 24 Dec 2025 at $91.13.

(1) Moving Averages (MAs) & RSI.

• 20-Day MA: $91.77 - Short-term trend is neutral to slightly bearish as price fluctuates around this level.

• 50-Day MA: $101.35 - Stock is currently trading below its 50-day average, indicating medium-term downward pressure.

• 200-Day MA: $65.21 - Long-term trend remains bullish, providing a significant "floor" for NBIS.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 47.85, it is in a neutral state where the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

(2) Trading Volume.

• NBIS’s recent volume during the descent has been relatively steady, without a massive "climax" sell-off. (see above)

• Volume remains below the peak levels seen during the September 2025 rally.

(3) P/E and P/S Ratios.

• P/E Ratio: 72.9 - elevated reading, reflects high growth expectations despite current unprofitability. (see above)

• P/S Ratio: ~66x - regarded as extremely “high” compared to the sector average of 8.4x, making the stock vulnerable to any execution delays.

(4) Double Top Reversal Formation.

• Between October and early December, NBIS formed a Double Top pattern (see above, pink outline), characterized by two distinct peaks near the $135–$140 level.

• NBIS failed to break through resistance at these peaks and subsequently fell below its neckline around the $90.00 level.

• NBIS last traded at $91.13, testing support near its 20-day MA of $91.77.

• It has dropped significantly below its 50-day MA of $101.35, indicating a shift in intermediate-term momentum to the downside.

• NBIS’s current formation is a bearish reversal pattern, meaning NBIS may face further downward pressure unless it can reclaim the $101 level.

• The previous advance from May to October was significant, but the stock has now "rolled over" after failing to sustain its highs, losing roughly -32% from its peak.

(5) Future Outlook.

Immediate Term:

• NBIS is likely to consolidate between $85 and $95 as it tests support at the 20-day MA.

Medium Term:

• Resistance at $101.35 (50-day SMA) remains a major hurdle.

• Failure to break above this, could lead to a test of the $80 level.

Long Term:

• NBIS’s path to $7B–$9B in ARR by 2026 is the primary driver.

• Success depends on timely build-out of its 2.5 GW contracted capacity.

• The high 66x P/S ratio suggests much of this success is already priced in.

Ratings & Price Targets.

As of December 25, 2025, analyst sentiment for NBIS remains largely bullish, though a clear divergence has emerged between long-term growth targets and short-term valuation risks.

Following NBIS’s Q3 2025 earnings report, its September 2025 contract with MSFT and recent $5 billion META contract, major institutions have updated their 12-month projections.

Consensus reflects a massive upside potential if NBIS hits its $7–$9 billion ARR target by late 2026:

• On 19 Nov 2025 - Citizens initiated an “Outperform” rating, with price target of $175.

• On 16 Nov 2025 - Goldman Sachs maintained a “Buy” rating, with price target of $155.

• On 11 Nov 2025 - DA Davidson maintained a “Buy” rating, with price target of $150.

My viewpoints: (Mine only)

I have been monitoring both CRWV and NBIS closely for some time, having ‘missed the boat’ earlier on when I shared the August 2025 post.

Objectively, both stocks are still registering impressive YTD gains despite falling from their recent peaks respectively.

As of 24 Dec 2025, CRWV is still up +97.18% and NBIS has surged by +198.69% for the year.

If there is anything that I have learnt about the US market is that opportunity never fails to present itself, time and time again.

When it does, you either seize the opportunity by its horn or step away.

For CRWV, I have chosen to remain an observer, as the odds of rising back to its peak is stacked against it currently.

For NBIS, my assessment of its risk-reward balance appears unfavorable too, compared to more established peers (eg. $Oracle(ORCL)$, $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ or $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$).

The company faces unique geopolitical risks as successor to Yandex's (aka Google of Russia) international business, that could lead to scrutiny regarding data trust—a factor that does not weigh as heavily on US-based CRWV.

Additionally, NBIS's heavy focus on European data centers subjects it to more bureaucratic and regulatory frictions than its competitors.

While major contracts with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (valued up to $19.4 billion) and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ($3 billion) provide credibility, investors need to be aware that NBIS’s two largest customers are also building their own internal AI capacity, at the same time that they are ‘renting’.

The tech titans’ reliance on external managed platforms like NBIS could weaken in time to come, when contract is due for renewal at the next 5-year cycle or when their own AI facility become operationally ready.

Given the layering of high valuation, capital intensity, and geopolitical risk, the professional outlook remains cautious.

At these levels I would continue to monitor NBIS and CRWV; not unless I leverage on “Put” options to protect against a potential correction - too much work (for me) as I like to keep things simple.

"Grips" against AI stocks from simple "overvaluation" to more technical concerns regarding corporate accounting and the reality of AI’s utility are still being play out.

I am in no hurry to join in the fray. What about you ?

Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting.

My 2,430 ‘timeless’ posts remain available (for now) for those who value fundamentals as Mr Buffett had pointed — invest in businesses, not pick stocks.

To new subscribers, no flashy screens to entice blind investing. I aim to share on how to fish, not fish for you.

I’m grateful to share what I know. In the alternate moo moo universe, where I am valued & appreciated, I will still be sharing. Good luck on your i-journey.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• SRFM + PLTR: The 260% AI Surge in 2026 !

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• Magnificent 7 vs Burry - 2026 AI Reckoning.

• Do you think NBIS is as risky as CRWV?

• Do you think you can trust fully all the “positive” analysis out there about NBIS ?

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