To The Moon

Context on the current rally

Prices of silver have surged to multi-year and record highs in late 2025, driven by a mix of macroeconomic and fundamental factors: strong institutional demand, expectations of lower interest rates, weak US dollar, tightening supply, and industrial absorption in sectors such as solar, EV, and data centre infrastructure. These drivers have boosted not only silver but also other metals such as palladium and copper. Recent price action has seen silver briefly above US$80 before volatility pushed it back lower. 

What’s underpinning the surge

Structural supply deficit — Silver has been in deficit for several years, with demand consistently outpacing supply. Inventories globally have declined, and new mine output cannot quickly expand due to the long lead time and the fact that most silver is produced as a by-product of other base metals. 

Industrial demand growth — Technological demand from solar photovoltaic manufacturing, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics continues to rise and is less price-sensitive. This augments traditional investment demand. 

Macro tailwinds — Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical risks boost the appeal of precious metals as hedges against inflation and currency debasement. 

Parabolic moves and risk of overextension

Very strong short-term moves in any asset class often mean markets are overheated. Technical indicators showed silver stretched into overbought territory in recent sessions, which can precede pullbacks or consolidation phases. 

Large flows and indiscriminate buying can also signal that speculative positioning is increasing, which does not necessarily mark a top but suggests risks are rising and volatility could intensify.

Can silver go even higher in 2026?

Analyst forecasts vary, but the structural bullish case is clear:

Many forecasts for 2026 still assume prices remain elevated and continue to make new highs if supply deficits persist and industrial demand remains strong. Some view a base around US$70 with the potential for extensions above that level if conditions persist. 

Structural forces that have driven the 2025 rally are expected to remain relevant in 2026, including continued deficits and rising consumption. 

Whether silver can reach US$100 in 2026 is more speculative. This outcome is not widely standard in institutional consensus, but under extreme scenarios — for example, persistent deficits, elevated macro uncertainty, and broad speculative participation — markets could test such levels. Some outlier voices even speak of much higher structural opportunities during a pronounced “mania phase,” but these are not mainstream. 

Is this the moment to exit or the start of a bigger rally?

That depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance:

If you are long-term oriented and believe fundamentals remain strong, this could be the continuation of a secular bull market. Long-dated deficits and real demand growth are structural in nature.

If you are focused on short-term technical moves, sharp gains followed by crowded positioning often lead to profit-taking and volatility. A parabolic move can precede corrections or periods of consolidation before any further leg up.

Assessing whether “everyone is buying” is a sell signal is not binary. In many commodities cycles, strong momentum can last longer than expected, but the proportion of speculative capital in silver now is significant.

Is silver the “meme stock” of precious metals?

Silver’s recent price action has attracted retail attention and exuberance akin to meme stock behaviour, but its rally is grounded in real supply/demand dynamics as well as macro hedging motives. It is more accurate to say that this rally has both fundamental support and speculative heat rather than being driven purely by social media momentum.

Key risks to watch in 2026

A stronger US dollar or higher-than-expected interest rates could dampen precious metals demand.

Any rebalancing of inventories or easing of supply shortages would reduce upward pressure.

A slowdown in industrial growth or manufacturing could take demand off its current trajectory.

In summary, structural drivers support the continuation of silver’s bull market, but volatility and technical risks are elevated. US$100 is not impossible under extreme market conditions, but it is beyond what most mainstream forecasts assume. A disciplined approach that accounts for both fundamentals and risk management is recommended before making directional decisions on silver exposure.