To The Moon

Foreword: Put Away the Champagne, Open Excel

While the market revels in the sensational headlines of Robo.ai $Robo.ai Inc(AIIO)$ acquiring Jidu (the Jiyue brand), as an analyst who trusts only data, I care little for grand narratives about "dreams." I care about only one thing: How does this transaction change the denominator in my DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model—specifically, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)?

The conclusion is cold and counter-intuitive: This merger does not increase "Integration Risk" as retail investors fear; on the contrary, it is the single greatest "Risk Reducer" in Robo.ai's corporate lifecycle.

Based on the latest asset injection information, I have lowered AIIO's Beta coefficient from a high-growth tech 2.5 to 1.8. This implies that, under the same cash flow expectations, the company's Intrinsic Value will see a significant uplift.

I.      Risk Reducer: Swapping "Execution Risk" for Fixed Assets

In financial modeling, the greatest risk is Uncertainty.

Prior to this merger, Robo.ai's model contained a massive CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) Black Hole. To achieve the deployment of "Embodied AI," building factories in-house would have meant 3-5 years of continuous net cash outflows, accompanied by an extremely high risk of project failure (refer to the total write-off of the Apple Car).

By acquiring Jidu through pre-restructuring, Robo.ai is effectively using a fixed sum of acquisition capital to swap for Geely's $GEELY AUTO(00175)$ ) SEA Architecture (which cost 18 billion RMB to develop), a mature supply chain, and $Baidu(BIDU)$ Apollo autonomous driving capabilities, which are ready for deployment.

• Model Adjustment: I have removed the "High-Risk R&D Expenses" projected for the next 5 years and replaced them with "Confirmed Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)."

• The Logic: The Balance Sheet shifts from "Asset-Light, High-Risk" to "Asset-Heavy, Foundation-Solid." For valuation purposes, confirmed depreciation is far friendlier than uncertain cash burn.

II. Expectation Converger: Visibility Analysis for the Next 3-6 Months

Capital markets hate "Blind Boxes." Following the Jidu merger, Robo.ai's performance guidance will rapidly converge from "vague software subscriptions" to "verifiable hardware deliveries."

For the next two quarters (Q1-Q2 2026), we no longer need stories. We only need to track these three High-Frequency Verifiable Metrics:

1. Deliveries: The production ramp-up data for Jiyue 01. This is a hard metric that directly determines the consolidated Top-line (Revenue).

2. ASP (Average Selling Price): Combined with Robo.ai's brand premium, observe whether the unit price remains stable.

3. SG&A Ratio: Observe whether post-merger Selling, General, and Administrative expenses decline as expected due to shared Middle Eastern channels.

Conclusion: The forecast Variance narrows drastically. When a company's performance can be precisely calculated in Excel, institutional allocation willingness rises exponentially.

III. Qualitative Change in the Financial Model: The Real Contribution of Zand Bank

Regarding the collaboration with Zand Bank, the market is full of literary descriptions of the "Machine Economy." Please strip away the rhetoric; let's look at the substantive impact on the P&L (Profit and Loss) statement.

The core of Robo.ai's partnership with Zand Bank lies in RWA (Real World Asset) Financing and M2M (Machine-to-Machine) Payments. In the financial model, this corresponds to the optimization of two key variables:

1. Lower Cost of Debt: financing vehicle assets on-chain via RWA is highly likely to secure capital costs lower than traditional credit. This means a further reduction in WACC.

2. Margin Accretion: Traditional car sales generate "One-time Revenue" with low gross margins (typically 15%-20%). However, financial service fees and M2M transaction commissions based on the Zand channel belong to "Recurring Revenue," with gross margins typically exceeding 80%.

Model Adjustment: In the 2026 revenue forecast, I added a line item for "Financial Service Revenue." Although the proportion is not high, its pull on the Net Margin is structural.

IV. Valuation Reconstruction: Switching from P/S to PEG

Finally, let's talk about the price target.

Previously, AIIO could only be valued using P/S (Price-to-Sales), a metric belonging to the "Storytelling Phase," because there was no profit or even stable revenue. After acquiring Jidu, with the consolidation of revenue scale and the closed-loop business model, we can finally use PEG (Price/Earnings-to-Growth) or even EV/EBITDA for more rigorous pricing.

• Current State: The market has not yet fully digested the logic that "Merger = Risk Reduction," and the stock price still contains an excessive "Uncertainty Discount."

• Catalyst: The release of the Q1 2026 earnings report. Once financial data confirms cash flow improvement and delivery stability, the valuation model will undergo Mean Reversion.

Summary: The Buy Logic is Based on Math, Not Faith

$Robo.ai Inc(AIIO)$ s acquisition of Jidu is not for the "stars and the sea," but to make the balance sheet healthier and cash flow more predictable.

As a data controller, my Strong Buy rating is not based on fantasies about the future, but on a significant increase in Risk-Adjusted Return.

Advice: Ignore the news noise and focus on next quarter's consolidated data. What truly drives stock prices is never the news, but the Excel model parameters collectively upgraded by analysts.

Disclaimer: This article contains complex financial model assumptions and is for professional investors' reference only. Data sources are based on public disclosures and reasonable estimates.