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Rate Cut Lands: How Will Market Move Tonight? How Many Cuts Are Expected in 2026?
@Tiger_comments：
Global markets are holding their breath ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision to be released on Wednesday. CME FedWatch tool is pricing in nearly 89.4% probability of a rate cut, yet what investors worry about more is whether the Fed will deliver hawkish signals alongside the cut, which could dampen expectations for a sustained easing cycle. At the upcoming meeting early Thursday morning, Powell’s remarks and the dot plot will be the key focus. His comments will set the tone for the next two meetings. If the message leans dovish, inflation expectations may strengthen further, and equity indices as well as gold and silver could continue to move higher in the short term. If he sounds more hawkish, that would align with current expectations in the bond market, meaning market reactions may be muted. This could spark a modest pullback in equities and precious metals — but such a pullback may present buy opportunities. Some anticipate that the market may move like this tonight: Even though a rate cut is widely expected, investors are looking beyond the immediate 25-basis-point move and focusing instead on the post-meeting statement and guidance on the future policy path. Goldman Sachs forecasts that five FOMC participants will register a “soft dissent” against this week’s expected 25 bps cut, projecting a 2025 median dot-plot rate of 3.875%, implying fewer total cuts than the committee’s median projection. How will the market move tonight? Will we see a gap-up then pullback, or a gap-up and follow-through? And how should we interpret the 2026 rate-cut dots? Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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