Check them in the history - “community distribution“
| @Shyon
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| @koolgal
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| @Isleigh
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| @icycrystal
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| @BTS
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| @ECLC
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| @SPACE ROCKET
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| @Mrzorro
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| @koolgal
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| @Shyon
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| @Aqa
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Santa Rally in Doubt? Will BOJ Rate Hike Deepen Market Downturn?
@Tiger_comments：
U.S. November employment data released on Tuesday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%. While still relatively low by historical standards, it marks the highest level since early 2021. Data from the University of Michigan indicate that as of November, most consumers expect unemployment to continue rising over the next year. According to Morgan Stanley, if this week’s U.S. labor data show moderate softness, it could increase the probability of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would be supportive for equities. “We are firmly back in the ‘good news is bad news, bad news is good news’ regime,” Wilson wrote in a note. He explained that while a strong labor market is positive for the economy, it reduces the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026. Against the backdrop of softer employment data, $CME Bitcoin - main 2512(BTCmain)$ rebounded modestly. However, a heavy slate of macroeconomic data will continue to influence markets this week. On December 18–19, 2025, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, sending the strongest tightening signal in three decades. Image Historically, every BOJ rate hike has been followed by a period of correction in U.S. equities. With U.S. stocks currently at record highs, this does not necessarily mean history will repeat itself—but a cautious stance is certainly warranted. Citi strategists, however, remain optimistic, forecasting $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to rise 12% to 7,700 by the end of 2026. The core drivers behind this outlook are strong earnings growth and an overall supportive Federal Reserve policy backdrop. Will the Santa Claus rally still arrive? Will a BOJ rate hike once again drain global liquidity and trigger a correction? Are you staying in cash waiting for a pullback, or fully invested and riding out the drawdown? Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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