To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  $Apple(AAPL)$  🚀📊🧠 82.8% No Cut: Why Markets Have Already Repriced January 2026 🧠📊🚀

I’m not watching the Fed for a surprise, I’m watching the market accept that relief isn’t coming.

Per CME Group FedWatch, markets are pricing an 82.8% probability of no rate cut at the January 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, keeping policy anchored at 350–375 bps. That’s not hesitation, it’s conviction. The front-end futures curve has already shut the door on the early-pivot narrative that dominated late 2025.

This isn’t just a probability print, it’s a repricing. The ZQF6 contract is trading around 96.36, implying roughly 17% odds of a single 25 bp cut and effectively zero probability of a hike. When the market prices a path this decisively, the signal is no longer about what the Fed might do, it’s about how assets behave knowing policy support is not imminent.

I’m reading this as a structural signal, not a calendar event. Financial conditions remain tight enough to keep doing the Fed’s work. Growth is holding up into 2026, with forecasts clustered around the low-to-mid 2% range, while inflation progress still needs defending. Core components remain sticky, tariff uncertainty hasn’t disappeared, and the asymmetry still favours patience over premature easing. Waiting costs less than getting it wrong.

That’s why the focus shifts from announcements to consequences.

I’m watching equity duration through NVDA, because higher-for-longer pressure shows up first in long-dated growth leadership. If multiples start to crack anywhere, it’s there.

I’m watching balance-sheet quality through AAPL, because cash-flow durability and buyback capacity become premium traits when cuts stay deferred.

I’m watching rate transmission through JPM, because banks are where policy stasis turns directly into earnings maths and evolving credit assumptions.

I’m not looking for drama from the podium. I’m looking for stress, resilience, and rotation as markets internalise that time, not cuts, is doing the tightening. That adjustment process is where volatility forms, leadership changes hands, and opportunity usually follows.

Markets have already accepted that policy isn’t coming to the rescue in January. Positioning and behaviour will do the rest.

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion