The U.S. market is likely to stay range-bound with a mild upward bias, assuming no macro surprises. Recent pullbacks look more like consolidation after a strong 2025 close.
Key drivers • Macro data: Inflation and labour prints remain decisive. Softer data supports equities; sticky inflation limits upside.
• Rates and Fed tone: Stability in rate-cut expectations favours risk assets.
• Tech leadership: AI, semiconductors, and megacaps continue to anchor sentiment.
Market structure • Expect rotation over liquidation. Weakness may attract dip-buying in quality growth.
• Volatility could rise intraday, but sustained downside needs a clear catalyst.
Overall, this appears to be a consolidation week, not a trend reversal.
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