$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on:
- Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m.
Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power.
- AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026.
This just realizes the former backlog Q1. This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks.
TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter.
Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.
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- Ah_Meng·01-09 09:20Why is there a craze now? What changed?1Report
- Ah_Meng·01-09 09:21Is the manufacturing China based and subject to export control for this bottleneck issue?1Report
- Shernice軒嬣 2000·01-09 09:51It's has China manufacturing sites. The exports control is against Japan.1Report