NFLX vs PSKY Clash : Best Entry Is Now !
@JC888：
I first covered the above saga, almost the minute news broke and in quick succession. This is because it is the deal of the century and it will definitely disrupt the global entertainment landscape in a big way forever. Click on the titles to read my previous two posts: 8 Dec 2025 - The Winner Is NFLX... Errh, Not So Fast ! 10 Dec 2025 - WBD bid war begins : NFLX vs PSKY vs Trump (?) So Far. As we enter 2026, battle for $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ has shifted from a boardroom negotiation to a high-stakes standoff between the incumbent favorite, $Netflix(NFLX)$ and the persistent aggressor, $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$. On 31 Dec 2025, it was reported that WBD’s board has reaffirmed preference for NFLX’s $82.7 billion deal over PSKY's rejected $108.4 billion hostile bid, citing financing risks and superior certainty with NFLX. (see below) This despite PSKY, CEO, David Ellison has secured an irrevocable $40.4 billion personal guarantee from his father, $Oracle(ORCL)$, CEO, Larry Ellison - to back the $30/share all-cash bid. WBD board continues to favour NFLX’s "Studios & Streaming" carve-out deal. Netflix (NFLX): The "strategic partner" of choice. Their $27.75/share joint cash-stock offer is focused on WBD’s premium assets (HBO, WB Pictures, DC Studios). Since start of 2026, NFLX has been working to soothe regulatory nerves regarding a potential "streaming monopoly" as they aim to control over a third (or 33%) of US market. Paramount Skydance (PSKY): The "hostile" suitor. After the New Year’s Eve rejection, PSKY extended its tender offer to 31 Jan 2026, appealing directly to WBD shareholders. PSKY is positioning themselves as the "safer" regulatory bet because their deal includes the linear networks that NFLX wants to spin off. As of 07 Jan 2026, this is the latest new updates. (see below) In a ‘planned’ interview with CNBC Squawk Box - WBD Board Chairman Samuel A. Di Piazza Jr. maintains that the company remains open to a transaction with PSKY, despite having rejected 8 consecutive bids in favor of a rival offer from NFLX. He continues to signal a willingness to further negotiate while emphasizing that any successful proposal must provide superior shareholder protection and a more certain path to closing than the current $108 billion hostile offer. WBD still plans to merge with NFLX, after it finishes spinning off its cable networks in Q3 2026. PSKY has not escalated further amid the rejection, either. Deal Status WBD's board has labeled PSKY's revised all-cash $30/share offer illusory due to amendable terms and regulatory uncertainties matching or exceeding NFLX's path. Why the Netflix deal is seen as superior: (in my humble opinion): $23.25 cash per share. Additional, 0.4 NFLX shares for every WBD share. And a $2.8 billion breakup fee protecting progress. Both deals will face a 12-18 month regulatory reviews, but WBD prioritizes NFLX for value and reduced risk. 2026 Performance. As of 08 Jan 2026 First trading days of 2026 have been a "hangover" for both stocks, as the market digests the massive debt and regulatory hurdles ahead. NFLX was down -3.44% with a volatile outlook; as US market is punishing the "exorbitant” price paid for WBD assets. Over a 3 month period, NFLX has dropped -23.99%. PSKY was also down -8.43%. with sluggish outlook; as investors are weary of the bidding war's mounting costs and Ellison's aggressive tactics. For the same 3 month period, PSKY has dropped as much as -33.71%. Technical Analysis: The January Trajectory Immediate technical setups for both companies suggest a period of "cooling off or bearish” consolidation. As of 08 Jan 2026 (1) Netflix. Moving Averages: NFLX is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. This "death stack" suggests a confirmed downtrend. MACD : NFLX's MACD (12,26) at -1.28 below the signal EMA (9) at -1.63 signals bearish momentum with the stock in a downtrend. The positive histogram divergence of +0.35 indicates slowing downside speed and potential near-term stabilization or mild rebound if a bullish crossover follows. RSI: The reading of 34.45 indicates the stock is approaching "oversold" territory. Although it could trigger a short-term bounce, it currently reflects deep selling pressure. Formation. NFLX’s formation is characterized as being a rounded top initially and transitioning into a descending channel towards end 2025. After hitting highs near $134 in mid-2025, the stock has broken its rising trend channel. From late 2025 highs, price traces “lower highs & lower lows” within parallel downward-sloping trendlines, a descending channel, confirming the bearish shift. (2) Paramount Skydance. Moving Averages: Price is pinned below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. It is testing a long-term support level near $13.00. MACD: The MACD line is below the zero line, indicating long-term trend is bearish. The MACD (-0.50) higher than its signal line (-0.54), creating a "bullish crossover". Recently turned positive (late December 2025), providing a rare glimmer of bullish divergence against the falling price. This small positive divergence at 0.04 confirms the crossover, indicating that downward momentum has peaked and is beginning to contract RSI: Reading is “neutral” at 37.94, suggesting there is still room to fall before it becomes "cheap" enough for a reversal. Formation. Between Aug - Dec 2025, PSKY formed a broadening wedge, with prices swinging wildly higher on WBD bid news, then pulled back after being rejected, creating wider highs ($20.86 peak) and lows around $13. Of late, it is in a "Falling Wedge" formation. The broadening wedge formation favours continuation higher following recent consolidation around the $13 level. If PSKY clears the $14.91 level (50-day MA), it eyes upside of $16-18. Downside remains capped at $13, unless a broader media sector selloff pressures the stock lower. My viewpoints : (mine only). I am pleasantly surprised that analysts are also of the opinion that NFLX is fundamentally, the “better” bet, with PSKY being the “opportunity” play. If an investor is looking for a recovery play, then ‘oversold’ NFLX (RSI @ 34.45) will be the obvious choice. With Q4 earnings report due on Tue, 20 Jan 2026, any positive subscriber data could trigger a massive, short-squeeze and drive stock price up rapidly. However, PSKY offers a "floor" due to the $30 tender offer. Should WBD board be forced to pivot by shareholder pressure before 21 Jan 2025, PSKY could see a sudden 15% – 20% surge. With two unbeatable offers on the table, my eyes are still locked on NFLX. However, as a conservative investor, I will wait (patiently) for it to find support at the $86–$88 level before making my safe move. What is your ideal entry price ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. XLE, XLF & XLY - Sectors to invest in 2026 ! GOOG Rises To $5 Trillion In 2026 ? Possible ? TSLA Falls Further From $438 Price Tag ? Do you think NFLX remains the better buy, with or without winning WBD’? Do you think PSKY will only be the better buy - only if it wins the WBD bid ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Like
Report
Login to post
No comments yet