To The Moon

As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,717.80 on Friday, down 0.09% in the past 5 days.

1. $BLUESCOPE STEEL LTD(BSL.AU)$ +24.28%

• Takeover bid received: On Jan 5, 2026, BlueScope got a non-binding all-cash offer of A$30/share from $SGH Ltd(SGH.AU)$ + $Steel Dynamics(STLD)$ , valuing the company at ~A$13.2bn.

• Premium, but rejected: The offer implied a 27% premium, but the board rejected it as significantly undervaluing BlueScope given strong standalone growth.

• Clear strategic logic: Proposal splits assets — SGH takes ANZ operations; Steel Dynamics acquires the North American business (incl. North Star mill).

• Positive market reaction: Shares jumped 20%+ to a 17-year high, reflecting confidence in either a higher bid or continued upside independently.

2. $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ +15.38%

• Escalating China-Japan tensions over new Chinese export restrictions on rare earths to Japan, heightening concerns about supply disruptions and boosting demand for non-Chinese producers like Lynas.

• Recent inclusion in the S&P/ASX 50 Index (effective late 2025), increasing share liquidity and attracting index-tracking institutional investment.

• Technical rebound from oversold levels combined with improving sentiment around stabilizing NdPr and rare earth prices.

3. $Alcoa Corp(AAI.AU)$ +13.51%

• Advancement in Australian gallium critical mineral project with U.S. and Australian government support, enhancing exposure to high-demand tech/defense sectors.

• Broader aluminum supply tightness and rising prices, combined with resilient Q3 2025 results (net income $232M, up sharply YoY) tailwinds spilling into November sentiment.

4. $NEXGEN ENERGY LTD-CDR(NXG.AU)$ +11.12%

• Broader rally in uranium stocks driven by positive Canadian project milestones, including Denison Mines' progress on its Phoenix ISR project.

• Approaching key regulatory deadlines for Rook I project, with January 9, 2026, deadline for intervention requests ahead of February 9-13 CNSC licensing hearing.

• Heightened investor anticipation of final regulatory approval in early 2026, positioning Rook I as a major new low-cost uranium supply source.

• Strong uranium market sentiment amid geopolitical energy uncertainty and nuclear demand, amplifying gains in development-stage producers like NexGen.

4. $SOUTH32 LTD(S32.AU)$ +8.45%

• Record-high copper prices exceeding $13,000 per metric ton on the LME, driven by supply shortage fears and security concerns.

• South32's material exposure to copper via its Sierra Gorda operation in Chile, amplifying positive sentiment from base metals rally.

• Broader uplift in global mining stocks ahead of South32's upcoming quarterly production update (late January) and half-year results (February).

• Strong recovery in manganese volumes and overall portfolio resilience, boosting investor focus on commodity cycle upside.

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