$ACMR just smashed a 4-YEAR BASE and hit new highs at $53+ — China’s 50% domestic mandate is about to turn this into the next semi moonshot. Jan 22 guidance incoming. Who’s still sleeping? 🧱⚡
While everyone FOMOs into the big AI names, the real alpha is coming from the quiet picks-and-shovels beasts printing fundamentals + riding policy tailwinds.
1️⃣ What even is $Acm Research Inc.(ACMR)$
Leading supplier of advanced wafer cleaning, electroplating, polishing, PECVD/ALD & track systems
High-throughput tools → better yield, lower CoO, less waste
Deep proprietary tech + patents = fab-level switching costs (nobody swaps tools for fun)
China sub (ACM Shanghai) is perfectly placed for the domestic boom
Strong exposure to DRAM/NAND, where demand is sticky and pricing power is returning
➡️ Moat: Process know-how in a niche where China is going all-in on self-sufficiency.
2️⃣ Fundamentals = full glow-up (no cap)
Revenue: $260M (2021) → $875–925M (2025E) with analysts projecting even higher into 2026/27
EPS: $0.70 (2021) → climbing despite margin noise
Now positive FCF, sitting on $1B+ in cash
Stock was $45 since 2021… stayed $45… until this month → now ripping to $53
+
➡️ Fundamentals transformed. Price finally waking up.
3️⃣ Technicals screaming breakout 📈
Broke out of a 4-year base (elite setup)
Above all key MAs, IPO VWAP smoked
Volume exploding → fresh leg up starting
4️⃣ Funds quietly loading up 🐋
Institutional ownership has been rising all through consolidation.
Smart money saw the story early.
5️⃣ The catalyst that could detonate this thing 🚀
China’s new 50% domestic equipment mandate for all new fab capacity
Long-term goal: 100% local sourcing
$ACMR is already qualified at major customers → wallet share explosion incoming
Massive China semi incentives = biggest localization push ever
Early guidance drop on Jan 22 (pre-market) — could be fireworks 🔥
My take:
$ACMR is that rare combo where fundamentals, technicals, fund flows, and structural policy all align…
while valuation is still stuck in 2021 at ~3× 2025E sales.
China’s localization wave is just starting — and ACM is one of the clearest beneficiaries next to Naura & Piotech.
This isn’t hype.
It’s asymmetric upside in a semi underdog that’s finally getting noticed.
Who’s riding?
@TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerStars
Modify on 2026-01-11 08:51
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