To The Moon

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.

At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue to push higher. As a reference, when price broke out around 4400 previously, it was said that once it reached 4450+, it likely would not reverse into a false breakout. The intraday breakout behavior and the performance over the following 1–2 trading days are generally enough to determine whether there is an opportunity for a contrarian trade. Do not try to call a top lightly unless the market itself prints that kind of price action.

At the same time as gold made new highs, silver’s percentage gain is still leading; however, in absolute terms, silver can currently only be considered roughly in step with gold, because both are only making modest new highs. Interestingly, spot silver is slightly ahead of silver futures. Historically, the two tend to move almost the same, or futures lead slightly. This does not mean silver is about to reverse bearish (the prior high also saw spot stronger); the key is whether this extension at elevated levels this week can reach a meaningful magnitude. While there is no explicit rule, historical behavior suggests that after breaking to new highs, silver adding another 3–5% is largely unsurprising. Put differently, performance above 85 implicitly signals the silver trend is continuing, and it is expected that gold will provide matching confirmation alongside it.

Compared with gold and silver, platinum and palladium look somewhat underwhelming: both still have some distance to their prior highs. If the sector can confirm that a breakout is valid, they may have a chance to play catch-up later; however, from a long perspective, buy strength rather than weakness, and the probability that these two underperform silver going forward is still relatively high. At the same time, if gold and silver spike and then pull back, that would imply greater downside pressure for platinum and palladium, making them preferred candidates to sell into strength.

This is the broad precious-metals framework for the week, but given real-world volatility and the fact that prices are relatively hard to pin down, it is difficult to provide exact price levels as a trading strategy. Strategically, last week’s attempt to buy the U.S. dollar on dips did not work; starting this week, the approach can shift to looking for long-term rebound opportunities to sell the U.S. dollar. Using the euro (futures) as the benchmark, set a long position at 1.1615, place the stop below 1.1415, and set the target at 1.2415.

For the crypto market, the view remains medium-term bearish, but the current market may form a range and corrective move of a certain scale. If prices stage a noticeable short-term rebound due to some news, it may create an opportunity to look for sells. For this week, place limit sell orders at 103000 and 109000 (half the size at each level), set the stop above 116000, and look for a target at least near 7.7W; the orders are valid only for this week. The document states that the above does not constitute any investment advice and is only for market reference

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