To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $S&P 500(.SPX)$  

🧭 Market Pulse

I’m watching a market that is rotating, not breaking, even as macro and political risk intensifies. The $DJI closed at 49,191.99, down -398.21 or -0.80% as financials and industrials cooled after $JPM earnings, Trump’s tariff rhetoric and the credit card rate cap debate. The $SPX finished at 6,963.74, down -0.19%, the $OEX slipped -0.26% to 3,460.85, while the $COMP ended at 23,709.87, down -0.10%. $QQQ tracked the grind lower but held structure, while the $RUT held firm at 2,633, down only -0.10%, and the S&P MidCap 400 rose +0.19%, a clear sign of cyclical rotation rather than risk-off liquidation.

📊 Breadth was quietly explosive. NYSE printed 577 new highs versus just 77 new lows, while Nasdaq delivered 1,270 new highs against 200 new lows. Even with decliners edging advancers, that 3 to 1 new-high ratio is a classic breadth thrust. NYSE volume was 1.29B shares while Nasdaq surged to 18.7B shares. I’m convinced institutions were accumulating into intraday weakness.

⚡ Volatility ticked higher with $VIX closing at 15.98, up +5.69%, reflecting front-end hedging rather than panic. $BTC reclaiming $95,000 🟢 confirmed the risk-on spine of the tape even as equities paused.

🏦 Fed Watch

I’m watching financial conditions very closely because something new entered the equation. A reported Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tied to headquarters renovations and testimony has raised concerns about central bank independence. I’m convinced this injected a geopolitical premium into real yields and the dollar, amplifying hedging behaviour across rates, financials and metals.

December CPI reinforced the higher-for-longer regime without opening the door to cuts. Headline CPI held at 2.7% YoY, while Core CPI eased to 2.6% YoY versus 2.7% expected. That slight dovish tilt was offset by a firmer dollar and stable yields, leaving terminal rate expectations pushed further out. I believe this combination of political risk and sticky real yields is one of the drivers behind the violent rotation into hard assets and short interest build across $SPX, $QQQ and $RUT.

📊 Earnings Spotlight

I’m convinced earnings season is now the dominant macro. The $SPX is trading north of 20x forward earnings, which leaves almost no margin for error.

$JPM fell -4% despite beating Q4 EPS. Analysts flagged that lower expenses drove the beat while investment banking fees fell -5% y on y and 2026 guidance was only in line. Trump’s 10% credit card rate cap rhetoric added direct margin pressure across the entire financial complex.

$MS reports 15Jan26 pre-open with consensus at $2.41 EPS on $17.32B revenue. The stock normally moves ±3.2% post earnings, but options are pricing a much wider ±6.3% swing this week, signalling a guidance-driven volatility event.

📈 Earnings history remains critical. $C has delivered steady beats through FY25 with EPS in the $1.90 to $2.20 range. $BK has produced consistent upside with EPS rising toward $2.30. $INFY continues to print stable $0.19 to $0.20 EPS, beating estimates quarter after quarter.

🧠 The mega-cap earnings curves reinforce how stretched expectations are. The $0.96 EPS track shows a clean beat-and-raise pattern through FY25. The $1.61 EPS panel shows explosive upside through FY25 with a tighter FY25 Q4 setup. The $0.20 EPS panel shows remarkable stability into FY26. These are the conditions that produce violent post-earnings repricing.

🤖 I’m watching $NVDA as the system driver. The US easing of $NVDA H200 chip export rules to China is a major bullish catalyst for global data-centre demand. Jensen Huang’s CES message that Physical AI is the next generation, powered by Project Cosmos and the Thor-X chip, makes it clear 2026 is shaping up as a robotics and industrial AI capex supercycle.

$AMD jumped +6.5% on an AI server chip upgrade, reinforcing that the semiconductor and AI hardware trade remains alive beneath the surface.

Tesla is an AI deployment company, with vehicles, energy storage and robotics acting as the physical endpoints for its intelligence.

That is why scaling unit volume from ~1.6M vehicles in 2025 to ~3.0M by 2029 matters far more than near-term delivery noise. Each incremental car is not just a sale, it is another node in Tesla’s global AI network, feeding data, refining autonomy, and expanding the reach of its software-defined ecosystem across transport, energy and robotics.

🧩 $CRM fell -6% after Anthropic launched Cowork, an autonomous workplace AI that edits files, automates workflows and executes tasks, directly challenging Salesforce’s Agentforce roadmap and raising margin compression fears across enterprise software.

🎬 $NFLX is reworking its $WBD bid and discussing an all-cash offer to outmanoeuvre $PSKY, keeping M&A and political risk elevated in media.

📈 Options Flow Radar

🔥 I’m watching one of the most aggressive option tapes of the year.

$INTC traded 948,946 contracts with 637,494 calls as traders chased upside into a 52-week high.

$ASST printed 546,030 contracts with 511,139 calls, a textbook gamma squeeze.

$SMCI saw 459,734 contracts with calls dominating, confirming AI infrastructure speculation.

$AMAT and $ASML showed heavy divergence with semi hedging and selective upside.

Financials $XLF, $BAC, $JPM and $WFC saw 2 to 3x normal volume with put skew.

$ADBE and $PATH leaned put-heavy after the $CRM shock.

$RBLX traded 103,779 contracts at 3x average volume as a viral game triggered a speculative call chase 🎮.

🟨 Volatility and Metals Check

I’m watching precious metals as a macro alarm bell. Gold and Silver CTAs remain heavily long, with Gold CTA exposure at 3.56% and Silver at 3.81%, both near extreme percentiles.

🟨 Gold hit another all-time high at $4,644 and Silver surged to $89.21, decoupling from gold with a +4% squeeze driven by physical shortages, industrial AI and solar demand. Copper and Aluminium CTAs are also at extreme long percentiles near 1.00.

📊 $SLV and Silver Mar 2026 options show bullish call dominance with support near 78 and resistance around 85, signalling dips are being bought, not sold. I’m convinced capital is rotating aggressively into hard assets as policy credibility erodes.

🌍 Global Macro Currents

Trump proposed 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, Black Sea tanker attacks pushed oil up +1.2% to $71.65, and easing $NVDA exports to China boosted AI capital flows. These cross-currents are driving a global rotation into energy, metals and strategic technology.

📉 Risk Positioning Insight

I’m convinced positioning is the hidden driver. $RUT short interest sits at record highs with 1-year and 5-year percentiles at 100%, up +47.0% YTD and +21.5% YoY. $SPX short interest sits at 95.8% one-year and 99.1% five-year percentiles. $QQQ is also at 99.1% five-year even as mega-cap AI names lead. That is squeeze fuel.

📊 Leadership breadth remains extraordinary.

New 52-week highs today included $GOOGL, $TSM, $CAT, $BA, $WMT, $INTC, $ASML, $LMT, $XOM, $MU, $RTX, $AA, $AEM, $ALB, $AMAT, $APH, $APTV, $B, $BK, $CBOE, $CMI, $CRL, $DG, $DLTR, $EL, $ELAN, $ENS, $FCX, $FIVE, $FIX, $FTI, $HII, $HWM, $JBHT, $KLAC, $KTOS, $LHX, $LMND, $MNST, $MSGS, $PL, $ROK, $ROST, $SLB, $SN, $SQM, $SU, $TER, $TM and $W.

I’m convinced this market is in accumulation, not distribution. I’m watching AI capex, metals flows, bank guidance and volatility pockets for the next regime shift. I’m staying alert for squeeze risk as short exposure collides with earnings season.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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