To The Moon

Precious metal prices strengthened sharply during the New York session on Monday. Spot silver once rose 8% to exceed US $86, and spot gold once rose 2.4% to exceed US $4,600 per ounce, both setting a new historical record in December 2025.

Recently, gold prices have continued to rise and approached or refreshed historical highs, mainly driven by market concerns about possible damage to the independence of the Federal Reserve and safe-haven demand triggered by the escalation of global geopolitical tensions. On the one hand, the market's concern about the US Department of Justice's investigation of the Federal Reserve Chairman and related investigations has aggravated the financial market's concern about political interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve. This concern may weaken the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's professional and independent decision-making in formulating monetary policy, thus stimulating funds to shift from risky assets to safe asset allocation such as precious metals, which has become an important psychological factor to promote gold buying.

On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and elsewhere has also boosted risk aversion. Continued conflict risks, regional fluctuations and global political tensions have increased the market's uncertainty about future macroeconomic and financial stability. Against the background of rising safe-haven demand, investors are more inclined to increase their holdings of gold, a traditional value store tool, thus forming substantial capital inflows and price upward momentum. Therefore, the combined effect of fears about threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks has contributed to the recent strong performance of gold prices.

GLD Bull Put Spread Options Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Gold ETF-SPDR (GLD) $Establish a Bull Put Spread strategy on PUT options. The strategy passesSell Put with higher strike price and buy Put with lower strike price at the same timeConstitute, belonging toLimited benefits, limited risksThe strategy of being on the side of the bull or shock is on the side of the bull. The core judgment of investors is: GLD before the expiration dateThere will be no significant decline, the price can remain above the key support level.

(1) Sell with higher execution price Put (main source of income)

Investors sell a strike priceK ₂ = 415Put options, receive premium$2.68。 This Put is closer to the current GLD price and is the main source of premium for this strategy. As long as the GLD expiration price ≥ 415, this Put will be completely invalidated and the investor can retain all premium rights.

(2) Buy a lower strike price Put (risk protection) Investors buy one strike price at the same timeK ₁ = 410Put options, pay premium$1.44。 This Put is used to limit the maximum loss in case of an unexpected decline in GLD, so that the risk of the overall strategy is strictly capped.

(3) Put-side net income (per share) Net premium = Selling Put − Buying Put = 2.68 − 1.44 =$1.24/share

Initial net income

Since 1 lot of options = 100 shares:

• Net premium (per share): $1.24

• Initial net income (per contract): = 1.24 × 100 =$124/contract

The initial net income is the bull market put spread strategyMaximum potential profit。

3. Maximum profit

When GLD Expiration Price≥ 415Time:

• Both 410 Put and 415 Put are out of the price

• Both options lapse

Investors get maximum profits:

• PER SHARE: $1.24

• Per contract: $124

4. Maximum loss

The maximum loss occurs when the Put spread is fully triggered, that is, the GLD falls significantly.

Strike spread width: = 415 − 410 =$5

Maximum loss (per share): = Strike spread − Net premium = 5 − 1.24 =$3.76/Share

Maximum loss (per contract): = 3.76 × 100 =$376/contract

Conditions of occurrence:

• GLD Expiration Price≤ 410

5. Break-even point

There is only one break-even point for bull put spreads:

Breakeven Price = Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium = 415 − 1.24 =413.76

Maturity judgment rules:

• GLD > 413.76 → Earnings for Investors

• GLD = 413.76 → No Profit, No Loss

• GLD < 413.76 → Investor losses

6. Risk and return characteristics

• Maximum gain: $124/contract (limited)

• Maximum loss: $376/contract (limited)

• Profit-loss ratio: gain: loss ≈ 124: 376 ≈1: 3.03

7. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Bullish or shock bullish strategy

• The core assumption is that it is difficult for GLD to break below key support levels in the short term

• Receive time value by selling Put

• The maximum risk and maximum return can be clarified when opening a position

• Don't require GLD to rise, as long as the price doesn't fall significantly

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

• GLD will remain strong or fluctuate at high levels in the short term

• Unlikely to fall below before expiration410–415interval

• I hope to obtain premium benefits on the premise of clarifying the maximum risk