To The Moon

Did you catch the four US jobs reports from last week? If not, no worries—everything is summarized right here in this post. Check it out! The 4 reports released over the course of last week were: Jobs opening and labour turnover survey. ADP non farm payroll. Jobless claims - Weekly and Continuing. US non farm payroll. Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover Surveys (JOLTs). On Wed, 7 Jan 2026, US’s JOLTS report, for November 2025 was released. It painted a picture of a cooling US labour market entering a "low-hire, low-fire" phase. Although data suggested stability, it also pointed to a fading dynamism that could pose challenges for the economy, this year. Headline Number: The primary takeaway from the November report is a significant decline in labour demand: Job openings fell by -303,000 to 7.1 million, down from a revised 7.4 million in October 2025. This figure represents a nearly five-year low and came in well below market expectations of 7.6 million. (see below) The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Environment US labour market is characterized by a lack of churn. Employers are hesitant to let workers go, as evidenced by the stable and historically low 1.1% layoff rate. (see below) However, they are equally reluctant to add new staff, with hiring rates dropping to 3.2%. Sector Divergence: Decline in openings was most pronounced in accommodation & food services industry (-148,000) and Healthcare and Social assistance sector (-66,000). Conversely, Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities sectors saw a modest gain of 108,000 openings, suggesting localized resilience. Quits Rate Paradox: While quits rate rose marginally to 2.0%, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. This "stay-put" mentality suggests that workers are prioritizing job security over the pursuit of higher wages in a market where finding a new role is becoming increasingly difficult. Macroeconomic Implications More importantly, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has slipped to 0.9, the lowest level since early 2021. For the first time in several years, there are more unemployed job seekers than available positions. This shift signals that the "worker leverage" of the post-pandemic era has largely evaporated. The November JOLTS report reinforces the narrative of a labour market "treading water." While the absence of mass layoffs prevents an immediate crisis, the sluggish hiring pace suggests that any further economic shocks—such as trade disruptions or tariff-related pressures—could quickly push the unemployment rate above its latest 4.4% level. ADP Non-Farm Payroll On Wed, 7 Jan 2026, the ADP National Employment Report for December 2025 was released. It indicated a fragile recovery in the private sector labour market. After a tumultuous period marked by government shutdowns and policy shifts, the labour market appears to be stabilizing, albeit at a very modest pace. Headline Figures: Following a revised contraction of 29,000 jobs in November, the private sector added 41,000 jobs in December. (see below) While this represents a technical rebound, it fell short of the consensus estimate of 47,000–48,000, signaling that the "hiring engine" of the US economy remains in a low gear. Trends & Sector Analysis The report highlights a significant divide between industry types and company sizes: Service-Providing Dominance: Nearly all gains came from services (+44,000), led by Education & Health Services (+39,000) and Leisure & Hospitality (+24,000). Industrial Weakness: Goods-producing sectors shed 3,000 jobs. Specifically, Manufacturing lost 5,000 positions, likely reflecting the "tariff shadow" and trade uncertainty discussed in earlier sessions. Mid-Sized Rebound: Medium-sized firms (50–499 employees) were the primary drivers of growth, adding 34,000 jobs, while large corporations remained largely stagnant. Yield Paradox: Why Rates Aren't Dropping Historically, a "miss" in employment data (41k vs 47k forecast) would cause bond yields to fall as investors bet on a more aggressive Federal Reserve. However, US Treasury yields have continued to rise, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.17%–4.19%. (see below) The ADP report explains part of this paradox through pay Insights: While job-stayer pay is flat at 4.4%, job-changer pay accelerated to 6.6%. This suggests that while hiring is slow, the cost of attracting new talent is still rising - keeping "sticky" inflation concerns alive and preventing US Treasury yields from cooling. The December ADP report serves as a prelude to the official US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. It is certain that the US labour market is no longer in freefall. However, quality of growth remains low. Most job gains are concentrated in service roles, while momentum continues to decline in industrial and professional sectors. Jobless Claims. (1) Weekly Jobless claims. For week ending 03 Jan 2026, US weekly jobless claims rose by +8,000 to 208,000. This was a slight increase from previous week's revised 200,000, it remains near historically low levels: (see below) The 200,000 figure indicates US employers are still reluctant to let go of their existing workforce. Despite headwinds like the "tariff shadow" and high interest rates, businesses appear to be "hoarding" labour to avoid the costs of rehiring later. Analysts also noted that some of the recent "choppiness" in data is due to seasonal adjustments (a) following the holiday season and (b) the lingering effects of the 43-day federal government shutdown. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week. The “4-week average” continue to taper by -7,250 to 211,750, down from previous week’s 219,000. (2) Continuing claims. For week ending 27 Dec 2025, US continuing claims rose by +56,000 to 1.914 million. The plausible root causes are: Difficulty Finding Work: This is the more concerning metric. Rising continuing claims, paired with low initial claims, reveal that once a worker loses a job, they are finding it increasingly difficult to secure a new one. Sluggish Hiring: The increase to 1.914 million is above market expectations of 1.90 million—is a proxy for a stagnant hiring environment. It aligns with the JOLTS report showing job openings at a multi-year low. In 2025, planned hiring by US businesses fell -34% to 507,647 positions, the lowest level since 2010. Lacklustre hiring means more unemployed people are experiencing long bouts of joblessness, translating to prolong continuing claims in the process. US Non-Farm Payroll. On Fri, 9 Jan 2026, US last job report - the Non-farm payroll (NFP) was finally released. (see below) It was a definitive confirmation of the "jobless expansion" narrative. While the headline hiring numbers were lacklustre, the report contained internal contradictions that have sent mixed signals to the bond and equity markets. In December 2025, US economy added just 50,000 jobs, missing the consensus forecast of 60,000–70,000. Significant Revisions: More important than December’s miss were the heavy downward revisions to previous months: November 2025 data was revised down by -8,000 from 64,000 to 56,000. October 2025 data (due to US govt shutdown) was revised even lower by -68,000 from -105,000 to -173,000. Annual Context: For the full year 2025, the US effectively added only 584,000 jobs. Outside of the 2020 pandemic year, this represents the weakest annual job growth since 2003, highlighting a significant loss of labour market momentum compared to the 2 million jobs added in 2024. US's December 2025 - Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Unemployment Paradox The surprise twist on Friday’s report was unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% (from a revised 4.5% in November). (see above) Usually, weak hiring usually leads to higher unemployment. There are several factors are driving this divergence: Shrinking Labour Force: The participation rate edged down to 62.4%. People leaving the workforce (retirements or discouraged workers) effectively lowers the "unemployment" math even when hiring is slow. Low "Breakeven" Point: Economists are now suggesting the "breakeven" number of jobs needed to keep unemployment steady has fallen significantly due to (a) aging demographics and (b) tighter immigration policies. My viewpoints: (mine only). Recent jobs data shows the US workforce is bottoming and becoming more ‘stable’, with "low-hire, low-fire" dynamics being the defining feature. US Labour Market: It is no longer an "employees' market." Wage growth is stabilizing (3.8% annually), and the duration of unemployment is creeping up. US Economy: The US is on a "narrow path". For 2026, GDP growth is projected to stay near 2.0%. US economy is growing without needing to add many new jobs. This is largely due to rising productivity and firms learning to do more with less. In a separate report, the conclusion is otherwise though. (see below) US GDP growth by Component Personally, I don’t see US gross domestic product (GDP) growth as being “real”. It is supported mainly by steady consumption and solid government spending. Investment is ‘weak’ and further hampered by ‘imports’ that kept overall pace of expansion in checked. Other Factors. Apart from US jobs reports, geopolitical tensions stirred the Trump administration, could trigger short-term market volatility. These include: Venezuela - abduction of country’s president and coercion of incumbent government through threats in exchange for access to plunder its oil supply. Greenland - mounting pressure to take the island by force from Denmark. Colombia - Venezuela 2.0 thinly veiled threat, calling for submission or risk facing war. Iran inteference with threats of military intervention and public backing of exiled leadership withaccusations of illegal regime-change interference from Tehran. US Federal Reserve - has been served by US Department of Justice (DOJ) with grand jury subpoenas, opening a criminal probe into alleged "gross incompetence" and false testimony regarding a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's HQ. Q4 2025 Earnings Season. For week beginning 11 Jan 2025, Q4 2025 earnings reports kick off and US market expected to be sensitive (again), especially when it comes to companies’ forward guidance. A lot of analysts have envisaged that US companies are expected to emphasize, margin preservation and AI-driven efficiency to offset slower revenue growth and higher costs of imported goods. Where To Invest ? Analysts' consensus suggests that in a "messy" environment of geopolitical tension and slow hiring, defensive and structural growth sectors will lead. Healthcare - Non-discretionary demand sector with high stability in Managed Care and Pharmaceuticals. Strong pipelines in obesity drugs (GLP-1) are expected to drive earnings despite the macro slowdown. Technology (AI Infrastructure) - Forecasted and compulsory spending, with massive "capex" from tech giants (over $500 billion annually in 2026). This makes Semiconductors and Data Center providers "recession-resistant" in the near term. Financials - Stabilizing rates. Large banks are benefiting from improved capital markets activity and solid credit quality. If the Fed pauses or slows cuts, net interest margins remain healthy. Personally, I have reservations about Healthcare stocks being an “it” investment sector in 2026. (see below) On 7 Nov 2025, it has been reported by multiple media that weight-loss giants $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ and $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ have cut a deal with US government. They will reduce weight-loss medication prices by -65% to -75%, in exchange for tariffs exemption for the next 3 years. With this arrangement, it is difficult to see how pharmaceutical giants like LLY and NVO can grow exponentially for the next 3 years. Between Technology and Financials, I prefer the latter. Why Not Tech ? Currently, one of the top 3 tech stocks that come to mind is $NVIDIA(NVDA)$. Although the AI-chip leader is still registering a +38.73% past 12 months’ gains (as of 9 Jan 2026), it has not fully recovered from Burry’s 11 Nov 2025 short reveal. (see above) For NVDA to decisively break through its primary resistance level at $190, the followings will need to happen: (1) Proof of sustained demand for “Blackwell” & “Rubin”, and clear evidence that the 2 chips’ massive backlogs are converting into realized, high-margin revenue without customer spending fatigue, as predicted by Burry. (2) Overcome "massive and growing" supply chain issues that prevented NVDA from fully meeting current orders. (3) Full execution of reported 2 million units of H200 chip orders from Chinese tech giants, that could represent a $40–$50 billion revenue catalyst. However, this might be an uphill struggle for NVDA. (see below) On 8 Jan 2025, it was reported that Beijing has asked some Chinese tech companies to halt orders for NVDA’s H200 chips. Beijing is also expected to mandate domestic artificial intelligence (AI) chip purchases, citing sources familiar with the matter. This executive order would be more forcefully enforced (now), with US invasion and control over Venezuela, where Beijing has been Venezuela’s most critical international partner, serving as its primary creditor and a vital purchaser of Venezuelan crude oil. (4) Last but not least, NVDA should address Burry’s "circular investment" accusation, that argued that the company’s growth is an artificial "money-go-round" rather than a result of organic market demand. Burry’s primary "grouse" is not just that NVDA is investing in its customers, but that these investments create a self-reinforcing loop where NVDA’s own capital is recycled back to it as revenue, inflating its financial health. Until above 4 factors are openly address, NVDA might be coasting along Q1 2026, neither falling too drastically nor rising above its resistant. What do you think ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. JPM Soars To $350 with Q4 Earning's Catalyst ? US Market Rally & Fall on Trump Tariffs' Verdict ? NFLX vs PSKY Clash : Best Entry Is Now ! Do you think US Jobs Reports will act as a stabilizer to US market this week’? Do you think US Banks’ earnings will lead US market on a rally from Wed, 14 Jan 2026 onwards? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents