To The Moon

$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ represents one of the most sophisticated "pure plays" in the field of computer vision and autonomous driving.

To understand whether MBLY is truly on the verge of a breakout in 2026, one must peel back the layers of its evolution::

• Academic origin: A vision born in the labs of Jerusalem.

• Complex history of its public listings: A triple-jump between being public and private.

• Recent financial "inventory shock": A post-pandemic supply chain hangover.

• Latest move into humanoid robotics: Moving from the road to the warehouse floor.

Background & History.

MBLY story began in 1999 in Jerusalem, Israel.

At the time, the prevailing wisdom in robotics—led by DARPA Grand Challenge contenders—suggested that autonomous sight required bulky Lidar or expensive stereo cameras.

Professor Amnon Shashua, who had recently completed his PhD at MIT’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory,, founded the company alongside Ziv Aviram.

Shashua’s core innovation was proving that a monocular (single) camera, leveraging "Multiple View Geometry" and "Structure from Motion" (SfM) algorithms, could achieve depth perception and safety-critical functions.

This led to the development of the EyeQ System-on-Chip (SoC).

Unlike general-purpose GPUs, the EyeQ was architected with a "heterogeneous" design, using specialized accelerators like the Vector Microcode Processor (VMP) to process visual data at ultra-low power, often consuming under 5 watts.

By 2007, Mobileye shipped its first EyeQ chip to BMW and Volvo, setting the stage for a global rollout that has now surpassed 200 million units shipped.

IPO > Private > IPO.

MBLY's presence on the stock market has been unconventional, because it involved two separate IPOs and an acquisition.

First IPO in 2014.

On 01 Aug 2014, MBLY debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

• It was priced at $25/share, valuing the company at $5.3 billion.

• On IPO-day, the ‘Wall Street’ darling soared +48% ending the day at $37/share.

The 2017 Acquisition.

In March 2017, $Intel(INTC)$ announced it would acquire MBLY for $63.54/share in cash.

It was a deal valued at approximately $15.3 billion.

INTC’s then-CEO, Brian Krzanich, viewed MBLY as the missing link in INTC’s "data-centric" pivot.

By delisting the company, INTC also sought to shield MBLY from the short-term pressures of public quarterly reporting.

That allows for aggressive, long-term investment in advanced Level 4 (High automation) & Level 5 (Full automation) self-driving technologies.

Road back to Nasdaq in 2022.

Five years on, under pressure to unlock value, INTC spun MBLY back into the public markets on 26 Oct 2022, under the symbol MBLY on the Nasdaq.

• While INTC had originally hoped for a $50 billion valuation, a cooling market forced a reality check.

• The return IPO was eventually priced at $21.00/share, valuing the company at $16.7 billion.

• As of 2026, INTC remains the majority shareholder, controlling roughly 80% of the voting power through Class B shares.

• This is down from the earlier 94% stake held following MBLY’s 2022 IPO.

• The reduction is the result of strategic sell-offs by INTC to shore up its own balance sheet amidst its capital-intensive INTC Foundry expansion.

Financial Health / Standing.

MBLY’s last 3 years represent a "V-shaped" narrative of peak performance followed by a sudden structural crisis, and then, a recovery, currently.

Earnings per share.

EPS : Q4 2023 to Q3 2025

Revenue.

Revenue : Q4 2023 to Q3 2025

Earnings milestones:

2026

• As of January 2026, the company is seeing a resurgence. Management recently raised full-year guidance, bolstered by "Design Wins" worth an estimated $24 billion in future revenue.

2025

• Q3 2025 - At the end of this quarter, MBLY reported shipping 9.2 million EyeQ units, signaling that "excess fat" in the supply chain had been burned off.

• Q2 2025 - Customer inventory levels finally hit "lean" status.

• Q1 2025 - Revenue increased +83% YoY (off a low base).

2024

• Q4 2024 - Headwinds: Impacted by a $2.7 billion non-cash goodwill impairment.

• Q2 2024 - Trough: Revenue down 25% YoY; the bottom of the cycle.

• Q1 2024 - In early 2024, revenue plummeted -48% due to a massive "bullwhip effect" - an inventory glut of 6.5 million EyeQ units at Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch & Continental. Suppliers had over-ordered during the chip shortage, leaving MBLY with a barren order book for months.

2023

• Q4 2023 - Revenue about $637 million, up approx. +22% YoY; earnings about $63 million and GAAP EPS reported around $0.28, beating consensus by roughly $0.01. This is the highest quarterly revenue in company history.

• Q3 2023 - Revenue about $530 million; net income roughly $17 million, implying low‑to‑mid single digit cents of GAAP EPS

• Q1 2023 - Before the post-pandemic supply chain issues hit.

The Pivot.

On 6 Jan 2026, MBLY made its most aggressive strategic move since the INTC spin-off by acquiring Mentee Robotics for $900 million. (see below)

Deal Specifics:

• The purchase will cost MBLY - $612 million in cash plus 26.2 million Class A shares.

• This valuation is nearly 5.5x higher than Mentee’s valuation less than a year prior, signaling MBLY’s urgency to own the humanoid space.

• As Prof. Amnon Shashua was a co-founder of Mentee, he recused himself from the board vote to avoid conflict of interest.

Mentee Matters:

Mentee does not just build robots; it builds a Physical AI stack.

Mentee Robotics, co-founded by Shashua and other AI luminaries like Lior Wolf (formerly of Facebook AI Research), brings a "Physical AI" stack to MBLY.

While companies like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ uses "End-to-End" neural networks trained on millions of miles of video, Mentee focuses on "Few-Shot Learning" and "Sim-to-Real" training.

• Technical Fact: Mentee's "Menteebot" uses NeRF-based (Neural Radiance Fields) algorithms to build 3D semantic maps of its environment in real-time.

Mentee develops general-purpose humanoid robots and claims it can multiply a single human demonstration into millions of simulated repetitions, reducing the need for extensive real-world data.

MBLY aims to fuse its perception, mapping and safety stack with Mentee’s “embodied AI” capabilities.

This allows a robot to watch a human perform a task once and replicate it by multiplying that single demonstration into millions of simulated repetitions.

MBLY aims to fuse its Road Experience Management (REM) mapping technology, that uses crowdsourced data from millions of cars with Mentee’s "embodied AI."

This pivot suggests MBLY is no longer just an "auto-parts maker" but a competitor in the race for a general-purpose AI brain.

Imminent Breakout ?

As of 9 Jan 2026, Mobileye is at a crossroads:

• Its stock price has struggled, trading significantly below its $21.00 IPO price.

• It’s down about -40.75% trading near $12.00.

However, its fundamentals are shifting: (see below)

(1) Product Shift:

• The transition from low-margin Advanced Driver Assisted Systems (ADAS) to high-margin SuperVision (that utilizes 11 cameras and the EyeQ6 High chip) and Chauffeur (Level 3 "Eyes-off" driving) is accelerating.

(2) Backlog Visibility:

• MBLY has a design-win backlog of $24 billion projected through 2030, covering 17 internal combustion and electric vehicle models from a "Major Western OEM", widely tipped to be either the Volkswagen Group or Ford.

(3) Humanoid Re-rating:

• If MBLY successfully demonstrates its humanoid robot in warehouse "proof-of-concepts" by late 2026, the market may stop valuing it as an "auto parts maker" and start valuing it as a "Physical AI leader," similar to the multiples enjoyed by $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ or Tesla Motors (TSLA).

My viewpoints : (mine only)

To a technical observer, MBLY is currently a "fallen" stock with a world-class technology stack.

As of early January 2026, the stock trades near $12.24 with a market capitalization of approximately $9.9$ billion.

While it has recently shown signs of life, it remains in a delicate "repair phase" after a prolonged drawdown rather than a confirmed bullish breakout. (see below)

I. Technical Indicators Analysis

The current price action reveals a stock struggling to reclaim its long-term narrative.

(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

MBLY is currently sandwiched between key levels.

As of the 14 Jan 2026, MBLY is trading in an exceptionally tight range, positioned slightly above its short-term and medium-term trends but still facing long-term overhead resistance.

The closing price of $10.94 sits just above the 20-day SMA ($10.82) and shy of $0.50 to coincide with 50-day SMA ($11.44), suggesting that the stock has reclaimed its immediate momentum and yet to establish a fragile support floor.

However, it remains -$3.14 way below the 200-day SMA ($14.08), which serves as the final technical hurdle to confirming a primary trend reversal, also known as the "Maginot Line" for bulls.

(2) MACD:

MBLY’s MACD signals early momentum shift despite still-negative territory.

The MACD line (-0.03) is above the signal (-0.10), with the MACD line recently turned up relative to its own average, a mild bullish crossover while still below zero.

The divergence (+0.07) indicates potential for a continued upward move OR a reversal of the larger trend. 

The immediate-term trajectory for MBLY remains mildly bullish.

Driven by the divergence, the stock is positioned to breach the $11.23 –$11.51 resistance zone.

Question is whether the positive MACD line is able to trigger an increase in buying volume and a sustained move toward $11.51?

(3) RSI :

MBLY’s RSI of 46.85 indicates a neutral market momentum, where buying and selling pressures are relatively balanced.

This value is very close to the 50-level centerline, which separates bullish and bearish territory. 

(4) Support & Resistance:

• Support: Strong psychological and technical support is established at the $10.61 mark (the first pivot point). Immediate support is found at $10.47.

• Resistance: The stock faces a "ceiling" at $11.23 (1st resistant point) and more formidable resistance at $11.41 (Standard Deviations Resistance).

Chart Formation:

• MBLY’s formation is closer to a deep “saucer plus repair” or early-stage bottomed formation after a severe drawdown: a steep decline, an extended sideways phase, and then a gradual series of higher lows as moving averages begin to flatten and curl up. (see above)

• These formations typically take months to build but can lead to powerful, sustained breakouts.

Strategic Pivot.

MBLY’s recent acquisition of humanoid startup Mentee Robotics opens a new, higher-risk “Physical AI” leg.

What is Mentee ?

Mentee develops general-purpose humanoid robots and claims it can multiply a single human demonstration into millions of simulated repetitions, reducing the need for extensive real-world data.

MBLY aims to fuse its perception, mapping, and safety stack with Mentee’s “embodied AI” capabilities.

While this expansion could eventually explode the company’s addressable market, the roadmap targets first proof-of-concept deployments in 2026 and commercialization around 2028.

This implies that any material revenue or margin contribution from humanoids is at least several years out.

On current numbers, the Mentee deal is better viewed as a long-dated call option on embodied AI, rather than an immediate trigger for a fundamental re-rating.

Forecast & Directional Outlook

The possible direction for MBLY in H1 2026 is range-bound with a very slight bullish bias.

A durable breakout likely requires a combination of:

1. Sustained quarterly beats on revenue and EPS.

2. Clearer line-of-sight to GAAP profitability.

3. Credible milestones in the humanoid pilots.

Analysts expect MBLY to oscillate between $11.00 and $14.00 as it attempts to digest the 200-day MA. If it fails to hold the $10.91 level, a retest of the $10.61 low is probable.

However, if it clears $14.00 on heavy volume, it marks the end of the "repair phase" and the beginning of a new bullish cycle.

Actually, I am bullish about INTC instead of MBLY (see below). It is still too early to tell for MBLY. What if Mentee fails to launch, like TSLA’s Cybertruck. What do you think?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think MBLY purchase of Mentee is a strategic move’?

• Do you think humanoid robotics will be universally accepted and becomes a success ?

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