To The Moon

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ 📊 Market Pulse Breadth confirmed a risk-on regime, not a headline-driven squeeze. The $DJI closed at 49,442.44, up +292.81 or +0.60%, leading as financials, industrials, and cyclicals rotated higher. The $SPX finished at 6,944.47, up +17.87 or +0.26%, while the $IXIC added +58.27 to close at 23,530.02, up +0.25%. Participation broadened materially beneath the surface. The $RUT gained +22.92 to 2,674.56, up +0.86%, and the S&P MidCap 400 surged +1.20% to 3,516.91, a clear signal of regime continuity rather than late-cycle narrowing. Internal data validated the move. On the NYSE, advancers beat decliners 2,920 to 1,522, with 759 new highs versus just 55 new lows. On the Nasdaq, advancers outpaced decliners 6,899 to 4,290, with 1,689 new highs versus 191 new lows. NYSE up volume printed 739.87m versus 565.40m down volume. Nasdaq volume was more balanced at 9,300.83m up versus 9,665.77m down, but the expanding new highs list confirmed accumulation. Volatility collapsed alongside the rally. The $VIX closed at 15.84, down -0.91 or -5.43%, a textbook volatility crush consistent with dealer hedges being unwound, not rebuilt. 🏦 Fed Watch Macro data reinforced the soft-landing narrative. Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to the lowest level in several weeks, while both the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys beat expectations, pointing to a firmer Q1 growth impulse. I’m convinced this combination meaningfully reduces the urgency for aggressive near-term easing. Market pricing now reflects materially lower odds of a March rate cut, closer to a coin-flip rather than a base case. Tomorrow is the final day before the FOMC blackout period. A dense slate of speakers including Jefferson, Bowman, Barr, and Miran represents the last opportunity for policy signalling before silence. The curve remains orderly, front-end volatility is contained, and real yields are not flashing stress. Financial conditions have loosened modestly as volatility compresses, but the policy backdrop remains higher for longer, not pivot-ready. 💼 Earnings Spotlight Earnings breadth matched price breadth. $GS delivered a decisive Q4 beat, EPS 14.01 versus 11.77 expected. $MS followed with EPS of 2.68 versus 2.41 estimated, reinforcing confidence in capital markets activity, wealth flows, and balance sheet discipline. $TSM was the fulcrum. EPS came in at 3.14 versus 2.82 expected, with quarterly revenue at $32.5B. I’m watching the long arc, not the print. $TSM generated roughly $12.3B in quarterly revenue in 2020. That implies more than 200% growth with a CAGR north of 21%, driven by AI, cloud, and data centre capex. The stock is +14.3% YTD and +68% YoY, and the 100DMA has consistently absorbed pullbacks since November and December. AI supply chain confirmation extended beyond $TSM. $AMAT, $LRCX, and $KLAC all pushed to record highs in sympathy, reinforcing that this is a capex cycle, not a single-stock event. Commerce added strategic weight, unveiling a $250B U.S.–Taiwan semiconductor investment framework tied to a new trade deal, anchoring multi-year capacity, credit guarantees, and tariff clarity. I also note $BLK as a critical institutional tell. BlackRock reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13.16 versus 12.21 expected, with assets under management reaching a record $14T. Despite year-over-year net income pressure, the AUM growth confirms persistent institutional inflows into ETFs, alternatives, and diversified strategies. I’m convinced this matters because liquidity is still finding a home, not fleeing risk. 🧭 Options Flow Radar OPEX dynamics are now front and centre. Over the last 10 days, the highest total options volume names were $NVDA at 30,014,584 contracts, $TSLA at 20,369,162, $NFLX at 10,155,343, $MSTR at 9,462,974, $AAPL at 8,133,310, $INTC at 7,104,691, $AMZN at 6,692,928, $PLTR at 6,041,546, $AMD at 5,239,079, and $META at 4,574,394. Single-day flow was equally revealing. $NFLX saw 1,296,628 contracts with heavy put dominance, 901,095 puts versus 395,533 calls. $AMD leaned bullish with 687,581 calls versus 449,725 puts. $META skewed defensive with 733,482 puts versus 325,260 calls. $TLT traded 896,242 contracts with calls leading, signalling duration positioning. $MSFT saw 885,619 contracts with puts leading. The most aggressive upside chase was $ABBV. Volume hit 797,794 contracts at 45x average daily volume, with 790,183 calls versus just 7,611 puts, a near-pure directional expression. $TSM traded 703,312 contracts at 5x normal volume, with 488,387 calls versus 214,925 puts. On the day alone, roughly 184k calls traded versus 102k puts, with more than $116M in single-leg calls versus just $384k in puts. I’m watching for a gamma flip into Friday, particularly if dealers are forced to chase above resistance. SPY positioning also matters. The $SPY Jan 15 695 call alone accounted for roughly 319k contracts, nearly 9% of total volume, a clear OPEX-related gamma risk that can amplify late-week moves in either direction. 📉 Volatility Check This was a clean volatility crush. $VIX down more than 5% alongside rising indices and expanding breadth signals systematic de-risking rather than panic hedging. Implied moves are compressing, skew is flattening, and downside put walls are not expanding. This remains supportive tactically, though OPEX can still reprice quickly. 🌐 Global Macro Currents Geopolitical pressure eased at the margin. According to The New York Times, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu asked President Trump to delay any planned U.S. military strike on Iran. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt also urged restraint, warning of wider regional conflict. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump was told an attack would not guarantee regime collapse. Oil reflected de-escalation, with Brent holding a roughly 3% pullback, supporting risk-on flows. On metals, the U.S. Mint suspended all sales of silver products. Silver pulled back after President Trump announced a delay on tariffs tied to critical minerals. Despite the pullback, silver remains roughly 2.5x Bitcoin’s market cap, and I’m watching relative flows between hard assets and crypto closely. Energy remains geopolitically priced. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the U.S. is now paying roughly 30% more for Venezuelan oil than Venezuela received just three weeks ago, reinforcing residual supply risk. 🧩 Risk Positioning Insight Positioning reads as accumulation, not distribution. The all-time-high list expanded across cyclicals, defensives, financials, and AI infrastructure, including $TSM, $GS, $MS, $ASML, $CAT, $JNJ, $RTX, $ADI, $AMAT, $APH, $ASTS, $BK, $CAH, $CBOE, $CMI, $COHR, $EMR, $ENS, $FIX, $FTAI, $HLT, $HWM, $IBKR, $KEYS, $KLAC, $LRCX, $MNST, $NOC, $PL, $ROK, $ROST, $SNDK, $STT, $WDC, and $WPM. That level of factor breadth materially lowers near-term air-pocket risk. Key single-name positioning remains active. $ONDS drew attention after Stifel issued a Street-high price target, highlighting institutional capital rather than retail hype ahead of Investor Day. $UMAC received a $2.1M purchase order for defence-related drone components, with fulfilment across Q1–Q2 using existing inventory, and shares rose +3.56% AH to $18.02. $TCOM fell -3% to $60.85 on a suspected China monopoly probe, now -20% this week, with options volume exploding to 12x normal, led by Jan 26 65C and fresh 55P positioning. $STUB surged +13.70%, now +22% this week, breaking above resistance near $14 following a newly launched class-action lawsuit. $RKLB remains a volatility name. Shares closed at $88.01, down -4.13% after KeyBanc cut to Sector Weight, citing growth as priced in. Despite the pullback, the stock remains up 359% in nine months, short interest sits at 7.5%, and options flow remains call-heavy. $TSLA confirmed full operations at its new lithium refinery near Corpus Christi, a $1B+ project spanning roughly 1,200 acres. $TSLA describes it as North America’s first spodumene-to-lithium-hydroxide refinery, using a sulphur-free process and producing battery-grade lithium hydroxide plus a concrete co-product it calls ansilite. I’m convinced this level of vertical integration remains underappreciated when markets focus narrowly on quarterly prints. Friday matters. It’s OPEX, markets are closed Monday, and positioning into the close can drive outsized moves. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Tiger_Earnings @TigerObserver