$SK Telecom(SKM)$ Sleepy Telco to AI Champion- back door Anthropic exposure for free !
Hidden value from a highly successful 2023 investment in Anthropic is turning SK Telecom from a boring no growth telco, to an exciting AI play, see below for how this is available for free at the current valuation.
All numbers used here are in USD for easy comparison with the USD traded ADR, but the underlying figures are in KRW.
SK Telecom is a mature, sleepy telco- analysts expect ~US3.4bn EBITDA for 2026F, roughly flat YoY. If we apply a 4x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is the upper end of it's valuation range in recent years, we get a implied fair value ~US$13.5bn EV.
This upper of the recent years trading range valuation is justified by the strong market conditions in Korea currently, as seen by the >75% gain the KOSPI during 2025. Likewise, 4x is not high in absolute terms.
A cross check suggests the ~5.5% dividend yield at this valuation is also reasonable given 1 to 3 year local government bond yields of 2.6-3.5%.
Now, if deduct net debt of ~US$4.5bn reported at Q3-25, we get an implied fair value of ~US$9bn, exactly in line with the current valuation and ADR price of ~$23.10 per ADR.
This means investors get free exposure to the exciting stake in Anthropic. SK Telecom paid $100m for a 2% stake in 2023. However, Anthropic is now reportedly closing a new investment round at a ~$350bn valuation. This means, even in the worst case scenario, that SK Telecom has been diluted and not invested in any further rounds, they still likely have a stake of around 0.8-1%, implying hidden value of US3-3.5bn or $7+ per share, should this Anthropic deal close.
This implies 30% upside, with no downside risk, given this asset is available for free at the current valuation.
However, there is optionality, they have a larger stake, through add on investments not disclosed.
Likewise, given the value of the stake is material, being worth at least 1/3rd of SK Telecom's market capitalisation, it now provides investors with an appealing ongoing backdoor investment in one of America's leading AI businesses. With Anthropic due to IPO this year, this asset could both grow in value and be monetised.
I see minimum upside of 30%, to a fair value of $30/ADR and expect it to happen quickly. Likewise, there is optionality the valuation may overshoot as investors utilize SK Telecom as a way to gain AI exposure.
Modify on 2026-01-21 15:24
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SK Telecom Update - AI buzz continuing/trade working.
More buzz around SK Telecom becoming a local AI champion, just as a reminder Korea's tech stocks are on fire and this trade could continue.
Tarrifa on Korea recently announced may actually increase investor attention in sedukwr rather than economically sensitive, cyclical export names.
$SK Telecom(SKM)$