The rally in Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is driven by a combination of strong genuine earnings momentum and a sentiment boost from external factors like gold prices and share buybacks.
Lao Pu Gold's performance is strongly correlated with rising gold prices, but also underpinned by strong revenue growth and a high-margin business model.
Pop Mart's surge is primarily based on robust internal earnings growth, successful new product launches, and strategic management actions like share buybacks that boost investor confidence.
Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) vs. Pop Mart (09992.HK) Performance
Key Insights
Lao Pu Gold: A Mix of Commodity and Earnings Momentum
Lao Pu Gold's surge is directly tied to the current gold rally, with spot gold approaching $5,000 per ounce in January 2026. This external factor generates significant investor interest and fuels expectations of price increases for gold products.
Commodity Influence: The stock price movements closely mirror gold price fluctuations.
Genuine Momentum: The company has also demonstrated strong underlying business performance, with revenue growing 167.51% to RMB 8.51 billion in 2024, and net income increasing by 253.86%. Analysts forecast further strong growth for 2026, pointing to a genuine earnings momentum independent of the gold price movement itself.
Pop Mart: Genuine Earnings Momentum and Strategic Management
Pop Mart's growth story is less tied to a single commodity price and more to its intrinsic business health and management strategy.
Strong Earnings: Pop Mart's revenue more than doubled in 2024 to RMB 13.04 billion, with a net profit increase of 188.8%. Third-quarter 2025 revenue surged up to 2.5 times, showing high growth resilience even with a high base.
Management Confidence: The company's recent share buybacks, involving hundreds of millions of Hong Kong dollars, are a strong signal of management's confidence in long-term prospects and are intended to establish a price floor, supporting the stock amid market concerns over sustainability.
Sustainability of Pop Mart's Growth Story
Despite rising valuations, the sustainability of Pop Mart's growth story is viewed positively by analysts due to several factors:
IP Diversification: The company is accelerating the diversification and balancing of its IP matrix, with new products launching and a strong overseas consumer response to existing IPs like Labubu.
Global Expansion: Overseas revenue surged by as much as 370% in Q3 2025, particularly in American markets, highlighting a significant new growth engine.
New Business Formats: The company is expanding into new formats like theme parks, animation content, and accessories, cultivating new growth points beyond just blind boxes.
While market concerns over maintaining high growth rates exist, analysts like Huatai Securities believe the long-term potential is underestimated and the valuation remains attractive, reaffirming their 'Buy' ratings and high target prices.
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