I feel that the present rally is driven by structural, long-term demand from central banks and private investors using gold as a hedge against systemic risks & not just short-term speculation.
Most forecasts for end-2026 cluster around $5,000 to $5,400 per ounce, with some aggressive scenarios pointing toward $6,000 or even $7,000 if global tensions escalate further. This indicates significant remaining upside from the current price . While tactical indicators show gold as "overbought" in the near term, institutional positioning, especifically ETF holdings, has room to expand compared to previous bull cycles.
Finally, the main headwind would be a surprisingly hawkish Fed that reverses interest rate cut expectations, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and trigger a correction.
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