Why I Choose to Hold AAPL Long-Term Despite Market Volatility
After previously sharing my investment philosophy, I have recently revisited and systematically reviewed Apple’s fundamentals and latest developments. Without emotional judgment or attempts to predict short-term stock price movements, this article explains why I continue to hold this company for the long term amid current market fluctuations, based solely on publicly available facts and logical reasoning.
1. Core Fundamentals: Apple Is Not a “Phone Company” but a Dual-Engine Business Model
From a business structure perspective, Apple is no longer synonymous solely with the iPhone. It has evolved into a mature commercial system driven by both hardware and services.
According to the company’s financial reports from recent fiscal years, hardware remains the primary revenue driver, accounting for approximately 70–75% of total revenue. The services segment (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, AppleCare, etc.) has grown to represent around 25% of revenue and is the company’s highest-margin and most stable growth segment.
The iPhone remains the most important single product, but its significance extends beyond sales volume itself. It serves as an entry point to the ecosystem, continuously driving traffic to the services business.
2. iPhone’s True Competitiveness: Global Market Share and Premium Segment
According to data from industry research firm Counterpoint, Apple regained its position as the world’s top smartphone vendor by shipment volume in 2025, with a market share of approximately 20%, slightly ahead of Samsung.
More critical than total volume is the market structure. Data from IDC and multiple industry research firms indicate that in the premium smartphone segment (priced above $600), Apple consistently holds over 60% market share, far surpassing other manufacturers. This demonstrates Apple’s significant pricing power and brand moat in the most profitable segment of the market.
In the Chinese market, short-term data shows considerable volatility. However, in certain quarters, Apple’s market share has rebounded to over 20% amid recovering premium demand. Competition remains intense, but there has been no structural collapse.
3. Services Business: The Underestimated “Stabilizer”
If hardware defines the ceiling, the services business determines the stability of the foundation.
Apple’s services revenue has reached an annual scale of over $100 billion, with margins significantly higher than the company’s overall average. This segment is a core source of Apple’s resilience against economic cycles. The growth of the services business does not rely on “blockbuster hits” but rather on the continuous expansion of the active installed base and the cultivation of user payment habits.
Recent data indicates that while App Store consumption growth has slowed, revenue from iCloud, subscription services, and advertising continues to expand. Even during periods of hardware demand volatility, the services business provides relatively predictable cash flow. From a long-term investment perspective, this high-stickiness, sustainable recurring revenue is crucial for valuation stability.
4. Short-Term Stock Price Pullback: Sentiment Over Fundamentals
In terms of stock performance, $Apple(AAPL)$ has experienced a pullback since the beginning of the year, including multiple consecutive days of decline. However, historical patterns suggest that Apple’s stock price fluctuations often reflect market sentiment rather than a fundamental deterioration in the business.
Several institutions, including Goldman Sachs, maintain “Buy” or “Overweight” ratings, viewing the recent adjustment as a valuation digestion process rather than a trend reversal. While target prices vary among institutions, the core logic remains consistent: Apple’s long-term cash flow generation capability and business model remain unchanged.
5. Future Catalysts: Not Concepts, but Strategic Extensions
Looking ahead one to two years, several areas of market focus are worth monitoring:
Product Cycle: The market widely expects Apple to explore new product forms (including foldable devices) while adjusting product refresh cycles to stimulate replacement demand.
AI Integration: Apple’s strategy in artificial intelligence emphasizes “system-level integration” rather than standalone demonstrations, with gradual advancements in Siri, system experience, and privacy protection.
Ecosystem Deepening: The core logic remains increasing per-user lifetime value rather than merely pursuing sales volume.
These are not short-term speculative themes but long-term strategic choices built upon existing strengths.
6. Risks Are Equally Real
Rational investing requires acknowledging risks:
Fluctuations in upstream component costs may periodically compress hardware margins.
Competition from local brands in the premium segment within China.
Ongoing regulatory pressure on the App Store fee model across multiple jurisdictions.
If quarterly earnings fall short of market expectations, the stock price may face pressure.
However, it is important to distinguish between cyclical pressures and structural issues.
From a balance sheet and cash flow perspective, Apple retains strong risk resilience, with financial health ranking among the top of large technology companies.
My decision to hold $Apple(AAPL)$ is not driven by sentiment toward any single product but is based on an assessment of its long-term business model, ecosystem moat, and risk resilience. While I monitor quarterly earnings and stock price movements, these do not easily alter my long-term investment decisions.
This article reflects personal investment thoughts and is intended for discussion only. It does not constitute any form of investment advice.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
