To The Moon

As of late January 2026, gold has entered a historic "super-rally," recently smashing through the $5,000 per ounce milestone for the first time in history. This surge follows an already record-breaking 2025, where prices rose by over 60% due to a rare convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $UNITED GOLD & GENERAL "A" (SGD) ACC(SG9999001143)$ $FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS "A" (USD) ACC(LU0496367417)$ d

Gold Price Performance (2024–2026)

The chart below illustrates the acceleration of gold prices from the $2,000 range in early 2024 to the recent breakthrough past the $5,000 barrier in January 2026.

The current rally is driven by several key pillars:

1. Geopolitical Flashpoints

Gold thrives on uncertainty, and early 2026 has been defined by high-stakes international friction. Intensifying diplomatic and territorial disputes involving Greenland have rattled North American and European markets. Additionally, recent developments in Venezuela and persistent instability in the Middle East have pushed investors toward the safety of bullion as a hedge against catastrophic "tail risks."

2. Trade Wars and Tariff Threats

Renewed trade instability has become a major catalyst for the rally. Recent threats of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and new duties on South Korean imports have fueled fears of global trade fragmentation. These unilateralist policies have unsettled the international trade system, causing a "risk-off" rotation where capital moves out of equities and into precious metals.

3. The "Debasement Trade"

Investors are increasingly engaging in what analysts call the "debasement trade." This is a flight away from traditional "paper" assets and sovereign bonds due to record-high global debt levels and expanding fiscal deficits. As confidence in major fiat currencies wavers, gold is being re-embraced as the ultimate neutral reserve asset.

4. Structural Central Bank Buying

Central banks—particularly in emerging markets like China, India, Poland, and Turkey—are fundamentally redefining their reserves. For the first time in decades, the market value of gold held by global central banks has begun to rival their holdings of US Treasuries. This "price-insensitive" buying creates a high floor for prices, as these institutions prioritize diversification over short-term yields.

5. Shifts in Monetary Policy

The market is currently pricing in a dovish trajectory for the Federal Reserve. Despite "sticky" inflation, expectations for multiple interest rate cuts throughout 2026 have lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. When interest rates fall, gold becomes significantly more attractive compared to yield-bearing assets like bonds.

Milestones and Market Forecasts

In the first four weeks of 2026 alone, gold has achieved a year-to-date gain of approximately 17%, with spot prices currently fluctuating between $5,080 and $5,110 per ounce. This momentum has led major financial institutions to revise their targets upward; Goldman Sachs now forecasts gold reaching $5,400 by year-end, while some more aggressive estimates from Deutsche Bank suggest a potential climb toward $6,000 per ounce if current geopolitical tensions persist. While the trend remains strongly bullish, analysts warn that the rapid pace of gains has pushed gold into "overbought" territory, making short-term volatility and profit-taking dips likely even within a long-term upward trajectory. [Call]

Kenny Loh is a distinguished MAS Private Wealth Advisor with a specialization in holistic investment planning and estate management. He excels in assisting clients to grow their investment capital and establish passive income streams for retirement. Kenny also facilitates tax-efficient portfolio transfers to beneficiaries, ensuring tax-efficient capital appreciation through risk mitigation approaches and optimized wealth transfer through strategic asset structuring.

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