To The Moon

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.

The setup for this report is a classic "tug-of-war" between record-breaking advertising revenue and an aggressive, multi-billion dollar build-out of AI infrastructure. After the Q3 report in late 2025, the stock faced pressure due to ballooning capital expenditure (capex) forecasts, making the 2026 guidance the most critical part of this upcoming release.

The Numbers to Watch

Revenue: Consensus sits at $58.4 billion, reflecting ~21% YoY growth.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts expect $8.15–$8.21.

Advertising: Forecasted at $56.85 billion. Investors will monitor if AI-driven recommendations are maintaining the double-digit growth in user engagement seen in the U.S. last quarter.

Meta’s fiscal Q3 2025 report (delivered in late October 2025) was a classic example of "great business, scary spending." While the operational engine was firing on all cylinders, the stock initially cratered over 11% the following day because the market was spooked by the sheer scale of the AI investment planned for 2026.

Q3 2025 Summary: The Record Breaker

Meta posted record-breaking revenue, driven by a highly efficient, AI-powered advertising machine.

• Revenue: $51.24 billion, up 26% year-over-year (YoY), beating estimates.

• Adjusted EPS: $7.25 (normalized), beating the $6.67 consensus.

Note: The "headline" GAAP EPS was much lower ($1.05) due to a massive, one-time $15.9 billion non-cash tax charge related to new tax legislation.

• User Growth: Family Daily Active People (DAP) rose 8% to 3.54 billion.

• Ad Efficiency: AI recommendation systems were credited for a 30% increase in video time spent on Instagram and a 10% increase in time spent on Threads. Reels reached a revenue run rate of over $50 billion.

• Reality Labs: Still a heavy loss-maker at $4.4 billion for the quarter, though revenue grew 74% YoY thanks to strong traction with Ray-Ban Meta glasses.

The Guidance: A "Drunken Sailor" Spending Plan?

The reaction to the report wasn't about the past quarter; it was about the future. Meta’s guidance for 2026 was the most aggressive in the tech sector.

• 2025 Capex Raise: Meta bumped its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $70B–$72B (up from the previous $66B–$72B range).

• 2026 "Bombshell": Management explicitly warned that 2026 capex would be "notably larger" in dollar terms than 2025, and total expenses would grow at a "significantly faster" rate.

• The Reason: Zuckerberg is doubling down on "Meta Superintelligence Labs," essentially signaling that the company will spend whatever it takes to lead the frontier AI race, even if it hurts short-term margins.

Lessons Learnt: The "Zuckerberg Premium"

The market’s reaction to this guidance provided three critical takeaways for investors:

I. The "Year of Efficiency" is Dead

Investors learned that the 2023–2024 "Year of Efficiency" was just a pit stop to clean up the balance sheet before a massive AI offensive. Meta is no longer a "value" play based on cost-cutting; it is a high-risk, high-reward bet on AI dominance.

II. AI is Improving the Core, but the Bill is Steep

The lesson from the 30% jump in Instagram video time is that AI works. It’s driving more engagement and better ad targeting. However, the market now realizes that maintaining this lead requires a permanent, multi-billion dollar increase in the "cost of doing business" (infrastructure and power).

III. Growth Must Stay North of 20%

Because the expense growth for 2026 is projected to be so high, Meta must maintain at least 20% revenue growth to keep its margins from collapsing. Any sign of a slowdown in the ad market while expenses are rising will lead to a severe re-rating of the stock.

Key Estimates & Metrics to Watch

Investors are looking for "beat and raise" results, but the focus has shifted from just user growth to the efficiency of Meta's AI investments.

The Big Numbers (Consensus)

• Revenue: Expected at $58.4 billion (Approx. 21% YoY growth). Meta's own guidance range is $56B–$59B.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus sits around $8.15–$8.21.

• Ad Revenue: Projected at $56.85 billion.

Crucial Performance Indicators

• Family Daily Active People (DAP): In Q3, this was 3.54 billion. Investors want to see if the "Meta AI" assistant and Reels are successfully keeping users on the platform longer, especially in the US.

• Ad Impressions vs. Price: Look for a healthy balance. In Q3, impressions rose 14% while the average price per ad rose 10%. A drop in ad pricing power during the peak holiday season would be a red flag.

• Reality Labs Losses: This remains a "black hole" for cash. Losses are projected around $6.3 billion for the quarter. While expected, any narrowing of this loss due to strong Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sales could be a surprise catalyst.

The "Make or Break" Factor: 2026 Guidance

The stock's direction will likely be determined by Mark Zuckerberg's commentary on the AI Spending Ramp.

• 2025 Capex: Meta previously raised 2025 capex to $70B–$72B.

• 2026 Outlook: Management has already warned that 2026 spending will be "notably larger." If they guide for 2026 capex exceeding $80B–$90B without showing clear "AI ROI" (return on investment), the stock could see a repeat of the post-Q3 sell-off.

Meta Platforms (META) Price Target

Based on 64 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Meta Platforms in the last3 months. The average price target is $829.72 with a high forecast of $1,117.00and a low forecast of $685.00. The average price target represents a 23.29% change from the last price of $672.97.

Short-Term Trading Analysis

Meta is currently in a "show me" phase. Technically, the stock has recently underperformed the Nasdaq 100, entering a consolidation period.

Bull Case (Potential Rally to $750+)

• Scenario: Meta beats revenue estimates ($59B+), shows that AI is significantly lowering the cost-per-action for advertisers, and provides a 2026 expense outlook that is lower than the "worst-case" fears.

• Indicator: Watch for a break above the $660–$680 resistance level immediately following the call.

If I looked at the Supertrend ATR we are seeing that the next bullish upside continuation that the bulls are trying for is around $729, which could mean that we might see a rally pushing for it if META can show that their CAPEX 2026 is less than forecast of $85B+ feared.

I think we can test the market to see how the price action would played out today (28 Jan) before its earnings.

Bear Case (Pullback to $580 or lower)

• Scenario: Revenue meets expectations but margins compress due to "front-loaded" infrastructure costs. If 2026 guidance implies a "year of investment" rather than a "year of efficiency," expect a sharp "sell the news" reaction.

• Key Level: $595–$580 is the major support zone. A break below this could see the stock slide toward $540.

Note: Options markets are likely pricing in a +/- 7-9% move for Meta on earnings day. Given the volatility of recent reports, "straddles" (betting on a big move in either direction) are often popular, though expensive due to high implied volatility.

If we looked at the expected move for META for this Friday (01/30/26 (w)) contract it is at the upper band of $711.84, so if we expect a big move either direction, maybe a long straddle option play might be considered.

I would be considering this option play today (28 Jan) as I observed the price action for META. This could be used for post earnings play as well.

Summary

Meta Platforms (META) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. This report follows a volatile Q3 where the stock dropped over 11% despite a "beat," as investors fixated on rising costs.

The Numbers to Watch

• Revenue: Consensus sits at $58.4 billion, reflecting ~21% YoY growth.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts expect $8.15–$8.21.

• Advertising: Forecasted at $56.85 billion. Investors will monitor if AI-driven recommendations are maintaining the double-digit growth in user engagement seen in the U.S. last quarter.

The Key Narrative: AI ROI vs. 2026 Capex

The market’s primary concern is not the past quarter’s profit, but the 2026 Spending Guidance.

• Spending Ramp: In Q3, management warned that 2026 capital expenditure (capex) would be "notably larger" than 2025’s $70B–$72B range.

• The Lesson: Investors have accepted that the "Year of Efficiency" is over. To justify the ballooning AI infrastructure bill, Meta must show concrete evidence that AI is improving ad conversion rates and keeping users on Reels and Threads longer.

Short-Term Trading Setup

Meta enters this report after a period of consolidation.

• Bull Case: A revenue beat toward $59B+ and a 2026 capex forecast that is "less bad" than the $85B+ feared could trigger a rally back toward the $750 level.

• Bear Case: If guidance implies massive 2026 spending without a corresponding lift in revenue growth, the stock could test key support at $580–$595.

Options markets are pricing in a move of roughly 7–9% (approx. +/- $48) following the announcement.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think META could stage a rally if it can show that a 2026 capex forecast that is "less bad" than the $85B+ feared.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.