Trump’s involvement is a policy signal, not an investing guarantee. Markets reliably front-run his intentions, but fundamentals often lag. Following early can work tactically; chasing after parabolic moves usually does not. Treat this as a catalyst trade, not a conviction bet.
Risk vs Reward
Pure-plays like USA Rare Earth (USAR) offer maximum upside but carry execution, funding, and valuation risk. These are trading instruments.
Diversified exposure via iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) offers durability and lower drawdown risk but less torque.
A small barbell allocation is more rational than all-in positioning.
Next Big Move
After rare earths, the most likely targets are:
1. Copper – critical for AI, grids, EVs; structurally undersupplied.
2. Uranium – energy security and defence alignment.
3. Grid infrastructure metals – aluminium, transformers, HV components.
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