To The Moon

China reopens the door to H200 chips, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ regains momentum. Nvidia has been trading above $190 after this news headline. So will Nvidia be staging another bull run rally?

Nvidia just doubled down on its largest AI holding, could this be one of the catalyst for bull run, in this article, we would like to look at a current, fact-based, sentiment-anchored assessment of Nvidia’s situation — with emphasis on the recent China H200 development, the CoreWeave stake increase, and what these mean for the possibility of another bull run in NVDA shares.

We have pulled out an analysis of the top 3 most impactful news stories for NVDA from January 27, 2026 and the sentiment with short explanation.

China Reopens The Door To H200 Chips, And Nvidia Regains Momentum

Sentiment: Positive

Explanation: Reports emerged that Chinese authorities had given preliminary approval for tech giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to begin preparing orders for H200 chips. This indicates a potential easing of restrictions on Nvidia's business in a crucial market. The article notes that Nvidia shares climbed more than 1.5% to $190.00 following the news. This development reduces uncertainty and improves Nvidia's prospects in China.

Nvidia launches AI technologies to aid weather forecasting

Sentiment: Positive

Explanation: Nvidia launched its new Earth-2 platform including AI-based weather models designed to generate more accurate weather predictions. The company is offering open-source software and models to help governments and businesses use AI for weather forecasting. This expands Nvidia's reach in AI applications beyond its traditional markets, demonstrating innovation and potential revenue streams. It reinforces Nvidia's role as a key player in the broader AI economy.

Nvidia Just Doubled Down on Its Largest AI Holding. Should Investors Follow Suit?

Sentiment: Positive

Explanation: Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, reinforcing AI demand visibility. The article highlights CoreWeave's backlog more than doubled year over year to $55 billion, with demand exceeding available capacity. This shows strong demand for AI infrastructure and Nvidia's commitment to supporting its growth. CoreWeave's capital expenditures are expected to more than double in 2026.

China H200 Chips Door Reopening — Sentiment and Implications

What just changed: China has approved purchases of Nvidia’s high-end H200 AI chips for major domestic tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance — reversing a prior block. This is a major geopolitical and revenue catalyst after months of regulatory uncertainty.

Why this matters:

• China is one of the largest potential markets for advanced AI hardware. Nvidia’s GPUs had been effectively shut out at the highest performance tiers.

• Even limited reopenings significantly reduce geopolitical risk in the AI supply chain narrative — a key risk factor that had been depressing sentiment and valuations.

• Analysts see a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity from resumed exports, even with caveats on quotas and conditions.

Remaining constraints/risks:

• Approvals are not yet fully open ended — conditions and quotas could limit volumes, and revenue-sharing fees impact margins.

• Geopolitical policy remains unpredictable; approvals can still be tightened again if broader US-China tensions escalate.

Sentiment takeaway: Improving to positive on regulatory risk, reducing one of the most significant overhangs on NVDA’s valuation.

Nvidia’s Increased Stake in CoreWeave — Strategic Confidence

Nvidia nearly doubled its holding in CoreWeave, making it a larger AI infrastructure partner and one of Nvidia’s largest equity positions.

Catalyst effects:

• Signals long-term confidence in AI cloud services, GPUaaS (GPU-as-a-Service) demand, and broader AI infrastructure build-out.

• Positive spillover to sentiment reflected in CoreWeave’s share price rising on the news and analysts maintaining strong future view.

Investor framing: This isn’t just financial engineering — it’s strategic positioning in the infrastructure layer that drives GPU demand.

Broader Demand Drivers & Market Position

Several factors continue to underpin Nvidia’s growth narrative:

• Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, AWS, Google, etc.) are continuing heavy AI infrastructure CapEx, much of it anchored on NVIDIA’s GPUs and ecosystem.

• Analysts still project significant upside beyond current prices, even with the strong run in 2025.

• Blackwell, Rubin, and future architectures retain a leadership advantage in performance, preventing meaningful commoditization in the near term.

Counterweights:

• Competition from in-house chips (MSFT, Google) and other accelerators is growing, potentially squeezing some demand or pricing power in the long run.

• Regulatory risks and trade policy remain persistent variables that can swing sentiment quickly.

Technical & Market Positioning — $190 / Psychological Levels

NVDA trading around ~$190 (your reference point); recent technical commentary suggests:

• Stocks often need strong continuation signals (e.g., sustained volume, new catalysts) to break out into a fresh leg up.

• Some analysts mention psychological buy points above near-term resistance levels near ~$210+ — common in technical analysis approaches.

We are seeing a MACD crossover formed after these positive news catalysts, so we will need to see if NVDA can maintain this $190 psychological levels.

So how does this translate to a bull run?

Bull Run Probability — Key Scenarios

Bullish Pathways

1. China H200 flows become real revenue: If approvals turn to orders and shipments at scale, this adds a meaningful revenue stream and sentiment boost.

2. CoreWeave and AI infrastructure expansion: Reinforces structural demand for Nvidia’s products.

3. Hyperscaler spend stays robust: Sustained AI CapEx would keep Nvidia in a secular growth trend beyond macro cyclicality.

Bullish catalysts = stronger technical continuation, new all-time highs.

Neutral / Mixed

• Continued heavy regulation or geopolitical shocks could slow China revenues or weigh on multiples.

• Competition with in-house AI chips could temper Nvidia’s future growth at the margin — not existential but relevant.

Bearish Risks

• Macro selloffs or recession fears hitting growth tech stocks broadly.

• Any renewed export restrictions without a clear path forward.

Sentiment Summary

Overall: Sentiment leans bullish with some clear catalysts, but tempered by geopolitical and competitive headwinds.

Will Nvidia Start Another Bull Run?

Probability is elevated if:

• China H200 shipments convert into measurable revenue.

• Upcoming earnings beats expectations with strong data-center growth.

• Market sentiment stays receptive (tech remains in favor).

However:

• A bull run requires sustained catalysts and macro tailwinds, not just one headline.

Interpretation: The probability of continued upward momentum and eventual new highs is above the baseline long-term growth thesis — but not guaranteed on any single news item alone.

In the next section, we would like to look at  a structured, fact-anchored breakdown of Nvidia’s near-term (1–3 months) technical outlook and longer-term (12-month) fundamental forecast — including target price bands based on current analyst consensus.

Near-Term Technical Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

Key Technical Levels (Current Trading Range)

Resistance

• Immediate overhead supply/resistance around ≈$192–$193 — price has struggled to sustain amps above this level.

• Breaking and holding above this zone would likely open the next near-term control point (psychological) near $200+.

Support

• First important support cluster around $185–$186.

• A breakdown below this zone increases risk of deeper retracement toward $175–$180.

Technical Indicators & Short-Term Market Structure

Consolidation / Compression Phase

• Price is not exhibiting a clear breakout — instead it shows compression below key resistance. This often precedes a directional move once volume expands.

If we looked at the range that NVDA is currently trading, we will discover that it is actually still in consolidation phase, and seen from the chart below, NVDA need to break $196 in order to show a possible longer bull run.

Bullish Case (1–3M)

• If buyers defend near-term support (~$186) and volume increases, a push back toward $200 is plausible.

• A close above ~$193 on improving breadth and liquidity could signal short-term trend continuation.

Bearish Case (1–3M)

• If the $185 support fails, technical momentum could shift lower, potentially testing $175–$180 or lower.

• Option market gamma and resistance placement could create mean reversion pressure in the short run.

Technical Summary (1–3 Months)

Probability Tilt: Range-bound to slightly bullish if sentiment catalysts (China H200 news, earnings beats) support buying at ~$186.

Longer-Term Fundamental Forecast (12 Months & Price Targets)

Analyst Consensus

Across Wall Street research:

• Consensus Price Target (12-month average): ~$260-$265 (~40% upside from ~$188).

• Strong Buy/Buy Consensus: Overwhelming buy/strong buy ratings among analysts.

• Target Range Spread: $205 (low) to $350+ (bullish outliers).

Analyst examples:

• Jefferies price target: ~$250–$275.

• Higher bull case targets by individual analysts up to ≈$350.

Price-Target Bands (12-Month)

Conservative Fundamental Zone

• $230–$250

• Based on expectations of continued data-center demand growth and execution without major multiple expansion.

Base/Consensus Zone

• $250–$300

• Aligns with average analyst forecasts (~$260–$265). Reflects structural AI growth and potential China demand return.

Bull Case Zone

• $300–$350+

• Assigned by very bullish analysts who expect accelerating Blackwell/Rubin rollouts, strong AI capex globally and meaningful new revenue streams.

Long-Term Themes Supporting the Forecast

Bullish Drivers

• Nvidia’s technology leadership in AI accelerators remains entrenched with Blackwell/Rubin and networking stack advantages.

• Hyperscaler and enterprise AI spending continues to expand data-center GPU demand.

• Removal of some China export constraints (e.g., H200 approvals) improves addressable market prospects.

Risks to Long-Term Outlook

• Regulatory geopolitics could re-tighten or change export rules.

• Competition from custom ASICs (e.g., Google TPUs) or other architectures could dent growth rates.

• Macro volatility may compress valuation multiples even if fundamentals remain strong.

Integrating Technical + Fundamental Views

Next 1–3 Months

• Expect range-bound behavior with catalysts potentially driving breakout above near-term resistance or accelerating short-term volatility.

• Technical structure suggests caution around ~$185 support and heavy supply near ~$193.

12-Month Outlook

• Strong fundamental backdrop and a robust analyst consensus imply meaningful upside potential with base case forecasts in the $250–$300+ band.

• Investor emphasis is on execution (revenues, shipments, China market, next architectures) and macro conditions impacting P/E multiples.

Summary Takeaways

• Short Term (1–3M Technical): $185–$193 range is defining. Breakout above resistance opens a bull continuation toward ~$200; failure of support risks deeper pullbacks.

• Long Term (12M Fundamental): Consensus points to ~40% potential upside with forecast bands roughly $230–$350+ depending on scenario and multiples.

• Sentiment View: Strong buy consensus underpins structural growth, but technical signals suggest near-term consolidation rather than runaway uptrend until new catalysts materialize.

Summary

As of late January 2026, Nvidia has seen a significant resurgence in momentum driven by geopolitical shifts and strategic expansions. Here is a summary and analysis of the current landscape:

Summary: The China Pivot and Strategic Expansion

Nvidia's outlook has brightened following reports that China has "reopened the door" to H200 chips. After months of regulatory uncertainty, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) and Chinese regulators have reportedly signaled a path forward for H200 exports under strict licensing and potential 25% "revenue share" fees. Major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance are preparing large orders, with analysts projecting this could unlock up to $30–$50 billion in incremental revenue.

Simultaneously, Nvidia has doubled down on CoreWeave, its largest AI infrastructure holding, with a fresh $2 billion investment. This move secures a massive deployment pipeline for Nvidia's GPUs and solidifies its "moat" by vertically integrating with specialized AI cloud providers. With the stock recently crossing the $190 mark, investors are weighing whether these catalysts will ignite a sustained bull run toward new all-time highs.

Sentiment and Bull Run Analysis

• Market Sentiment: Highly Bullish but Cautious. The sentiment is overwhelmingly positive as the "China overhang"—which previously capped the stock—appears to be lifting. Jensen Huang’s visit to China in late January 2026 has been interpreted as a "confidence mission." However, some caution remains regarding the "AI Overwatch Act" in the U.S. and potential Chinese resistance to "outdated" hardware.

• Possibility of a Bull Run: * Catalysts: The combination of the China market reopening and the upcoming launch of the Vera Rubin platform (H2 2026) provides a powerful dual-engine for growth.

• Technical Outlook: Breaking above $190 is a psychological milestone. Many Wall Street analysts have raised price targets toward $250–$320 for 2026, suggesting that if earnings guidance reflects the new China orders, a sustained bull run is highly probable.

• Risks: High valuations and potential "AI fatigue" or hyperscaler self-cannibalization (e.g., Microsoft's Maia chips) are the primary headwinds that could lead to volatility.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think NVDA could continued to show sustained catalysts and stage a longer bull run.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.